UTK Special: Division Series Health

In which I get the matchups right this time

For this round, I won’t discuss the four teams that moved on from the Wild Card round. You can look back at this - ignore the matchups mistake - and get the deep dive on them. I will discuss any changes or things we learned, so don’t skip over that, but I don’t want to repeat myself, bore you, or make my keyboard work any harder than it needs to.

DODGERS - PADRES

I have chronicled and over-chronicled per some readers the travails of the Dodgers. To me, this is one of the most intriguing stories in baseball. You can argue if the Dodgers are the most talented team in baseball when healthy, but I don’t think it’s close in terms of depth. The team was able to take injuries to virtually everyone on the team in stride, going 13 deep from their expected starters and still winning the division.

Add in that the Dodgers have a really good medical staff and coaching staff. The fact is these injuries are in large part risk acceptance, but also that great staffs and systems can fail. There are the “dumb luck” injuries like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. There are the “we know these happen” with Clayton Kershaw and Max Muncy. There are the “we didn’t have a choice” with River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan. Add it all up and it has to be fixed, but if it all ends up with a pennant, who’s to say they will? Mark Walter famously said after he bought the team that it wasn’t his last four billion. He’s not dry yet.

The team’s rotation is three, maybe four deep and while that shouldn’t be a major issue for the team in this round, it could be a big problem later. While the Tigers have shown that a “chaos rotation” can work, they’ve had time to figure it out, while Dave Roberts and Mark Prior mostly haven’t and have been openly hoping for some reinforcements. Clayton Kershaw and Tony Gonsolin aren’t there yet and neither is expected to be on the LDS roster. That means Landon Knack is the lynchpin. Is he going to be forced to be a bulk reliever or is he the fourth starter? With two off-days, the key will be whether the Game 1 and Game 3 starter go deep enough not to tax the pen without a rest day.

That pen is a question, but could end up a strength. It’s a power pen now, with Michael Kopech and Edgardo Henriquez pumping serious velo and vets like Joe Kelly and Blake Treinin who can handle tough situations. As long as they don’t get overextended, this is a capable group that’s done well over the last month of the season.

One possible solution is being ruled out for now. I’ve said that I expect Shohei Ohtani to pitch in the playoffs and I still think that will be the case if they go deep. Brandon Gomes continues to say no and he’s at least been consistent with this. I don’t think progressing in his throwing program matters. If it happens, it will be Ohtani saying “give me the ball” and his throwing program will happen in the pen. Admit it - Ohtani closing the World Series would be cool.

There are two question marks in the field for the Dodgers, with Freddie Freeman coming back from an ankle sprain and Miguel Rojas with a quad strain. Both are expected to not only be on the roster, but to start and play normally. This gives Roberts a bit of flexibility with his matchups and defensive lineups, plus a capable situational bench. With a short rotation, the team may well go with an “extra” bench player, looking to find matchups in key situations. The team has some decisions in the outfield but that will come down to who they feel is the best matchup, not health for once.

The Padres got their sweep and have their entire team available save for Joe Musgrove. While the initial testing showed the UCL wasn’t severely damaged, there’s going to be more testing. Musgrove previously had bone spurs in his pitching elbow, he said this pain was different. Definitely not ideal, but the Padres had him lined up for Game 3. Yu Darvish could come forward a day and the team will deal with Game 4 as it comes. The expectation is he’ll be replaced on the roster by Martin Perez, but they could go with an extra, fresh reliever.

My pick: Padres in 5

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