UTK Special: Wild Card Previews
2024 Playoffs get underway with four short series
The 2024 Playoffs start with four short series. Ending the Coin Flip games extended the playoffs, but with a new caveat in 2024, the schedule could move up, ending a gap if the LCS’s both go short. The World Series will avoid Halloween - savvy for tv - and could end before we give out candy. Injuries played a huge part in the season, so let’s take a look at how they could alter these four Wild Card Series. One note. I’m publishing this before all the rosters are finalized, so you’ll see some caveats and “probably”’s here. Let’s get to it:
ASTROS - ROYALS
The Astros that show up in the playoffs aren’t the team that turned things around after a terrible April. Instead, it’s a collection of players in transition, just like the team. While Alex Bregman could still be re-signed and Justin Verlander may figure things out, this team is beginning to switch eras. Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve are the elder statesmen, but this team has been willing to make choices about players and usually the right ones. But behind this is a whole new braintrust and decision making process, so it remains to be seen if they’ll value top prospect Shay Whitcomb in the way they did with Jeremy Pena in a similar choice.
The Astros are a different team on the pitching side. Ronel Blanco was a lottery ticket, while Justin Verlander showed his age. The core of the rotation has been young and home grown, while their previous core is on the shelf with injuries. That young Latin core rotated over to a young American core, buttressed late with a Japanese starter. How they’ll go into the playoffs is questionable - do they give Verlander a key spot despite his struggles? Which pitchers do they shift to the pen, if any? Late word is that Verlander did not make the Wild Card roster, but will continue to work and could be added next round.
On the field side, the Astros are relatively healthy. Kyle Tucker’s lingering leg issue is still there, but he’s adjusted and shown he can play the field. Yordan Alvarez and Chas McCormick ended the season with injuries, but should be ready for the wild card round. Alvarez worked out on Monday and I’m hearing the expectation is that he’ll be active, but limited. The injury that ended Ben Gamel’s season led to a hot two weeks of Jason Heyward, a free pickup that mattered. We’ll see whether Joe Espada can assemble this into something in a short series, but he’ll have plenty of options.
The Royals only worry about Bobby Witt Jr’s back because he’s been carrying the team all season. In what would be an MVP season in almost any other year, his breakout campaign gets an October look and remember, the audiences in the playoffs are bigger and national. There’s a lot of people that haven’t seen Witt yet and his presence is a big part of why the Royals are here.
The biggest injury concern is the pen. The front office tried to remake it, bringing in a couple live but fragile arms and they showed why they were available. Hunter Harvey and James McArthur are down, while Lucas Erceg and Michael Lorenzen have largely worked out. Lorenzen’s hamstring is an issue, but at this stage, he’ll push through and not have to give deep innings.
The rotation is a couple first rounders, a second rounder, and two renovation projects that worked out. Seth Lugo is a 34th rounder from True Detective, Louisiana that has always been talented, but never was healthy enough or good enough at the right time to prove it. Brian Sweeney has, in two years, proven he was absolutely the right guy and has his fingerprints on three teams (Phillies, Guardians, and Royals) that are in the playoffs. People around the game are noticing and the Royals are going to have to worry about him getting poached.
On the roster side, it’s much the same. Two of the starters were free talent, and aside from Witt, none were elite prospects. A surprisinging amount is homegrown mid-round talent, which speaks to their development staff. (And it continues, with Omaha making it to the Triple-A Championship and losing to Houston’s affiliate.)
The major injury question is Vinny Pasquantino, who was included on the Wild Card roster. He’s a month out from a fractured thumb and is hitting, but everyone knows he should be at least two weeks away. The medical staff will do all they can to keep the thumb healthy, but it’s not fully healed (or close) but a setback would just be another six weeks, which is called “the off-season.” It’s a risk, but a measured one, especially if Pasquantino has shown the Royals brass the power is still there.
Injuries shouldn’t decide this series. Instead, it might come down to two “inexperienced” managers who have nonetheless been in the game for years. Both have been right there many times, Espada with this very team through it’s run, but there will be tough decisions to make, especially with players like Verlander and Pasquantino.
My call: Astros sweep.
Want to see the other three? You know what to do.