Under The Knife 4/28/23

Curses, Time, and the damned Rockies

I’m going to ask for two favors today.

First, March and April are always the best months for subscriber growth. I get people back who dropped off in the off-season. My preference for monthly subscriptions over yearly is the reason there, but I’ve managed to grow the list year over year without major churn. However, it’s the rest of the year where I’d like to see more growth. It tends to be flat, so please, tell a friend, or even give a friend a one month gift subscription. “It’s the price of a latte” is cliche, but true, and it would help keep this going.

As big a fan I am of Lady Gaga, it was Kevin Kelly who did “1000 true fans”, not Stephanie Germanotta. I’d settle for half that, or for one moment where I could do something as well as this:

Second, Fridays are always the lowest readership. One of the things I’m proud of is that most of you read this newsletter every time it hits your in-box. Even those of you that can only see the free preview tend to read that. While I’d like to think that the 88 percent that are free subscribers would pay that five bucks, I understand that most of you won’t. I’m just confused why less people read on Friday and whether I should alter the M-W-F standard schedule somehow. I’ve always left room for longer Specials and the occasional Flash emails when there’s breaking news, but is there a better way I could be doing this, that would make it better for you, the reader? Drop me a mail, or a comment here, and as always, thank you for reading and subscribing. Now, on to the injuries:

GERMAN MARQUEZ, SP COL (strained triceps/strained forearm)

Queue my music. The leader to German Marquez’s return seemed rushed and didn’t match with what we knew prior to his return. It ended up lasting 58 pitches, with the organization as a whole putting Marquez in a terrible position that many had to know was going to happen. This is what I said on Wednesday:

He’s going to come off the IL at the minimum and here’s where it gets interesting - no rehab game. No sim game. He’s basically coming off rehab work and going right back into the rotation. Marquez is likely on some kind of pitch limit, but the Rockies have given no indication of it or how they’ll handle him.

Well, the indication was that details weren’t necessary. The team was basically just hoping he’d hold together, while also knowing that he wouldn’t. This is as close to organizational malpractice as I’ve seen in a while. Even knowing that the flexor strain was relatively minor doesn’t give a team the right to take a player and put them in a situation where he’s likely to fail, even if that player goes along with it. That Marquez is having pain in the triceps doesn’t excuse it either.

Marquez has an argument for being the best pitcher ever in a Rockies uniform and definitely that over the past few seasons. (Ubaldo Jimenez is slightly ahead of Marquez in WAR and done in a similar period of time.) He’s in the last year of his contract and this has shown him that the team isn’t looking out for his best interests. The team should have Antonio Senzatela back from his rehab soon, but they’ll have to piece together something in the interim.

AARON JUDGE, OF NYY (inflamed hip)

On Wednesday, Aaron Judge had a very awkward slide, one I’m not even sure oven mitts would have helped. He jammed both hands into the ground and was seen repeatedly flexing his right hand. The worry was a hand or wrist issue, but he stayed in the game. I’m not sure if they got him oven mitts for Thursdays game, but those don’t help his hip, which is what cause his removal from the game, and he said afterwards that he’d felt the hip pain since that same awkward slide. I can see where he jammed his hands, but I don’t see how he hurt the hip.

Regardless, both are key for Judge. If he can’t hold the bat to blast big exit velocity, that’s bad. If he can’t turn his big body, PVC style, then he can’t get that same exit velocity, or have the athletic range in the outfield. It’s lose-lose or at least bad-bad for Judge and the Yankees. Judge will miss some time, but as yet it’s days not IL time.

Bryan Hoch had a great stat in his tweet on Wednesday that the team’s IL kitty had more in it than several teams’ payroll. That’s going to happen with a Giancarlo Stanton and a couple big dollar pitchers on the shelf. What they can’t lose is function over a long period of time and why they’ve spent big on sports science. Sports science at its best can’t keep Judge from a bad slide, but at some point, they’re going to have to show that the spend is worth it in some results.

In the Bronx, the fingers are starting to point. Bob Klapisch has a nice piece that doesn’t go very deep, largely because the right people to talk to are hidden by the teams and ignored most of the time. Blaming Eric Cressey, the one name most know, is easy, but unhelpful. Teams can be slow to find answers, because people get entrenched, fight to save their jobs, point fingers and play politics. It’s often better to just clean house and rebuild when possible.

ROBBIE RAY, SP SEA (strained forearm)

Robbie Ray’s season is done after imagine showed a significant tear in his forearm. The injury happened in his first start, back on March 31, but has made little progress since then, necessitating the surgery to repair the tendon. Ray hadn’t been able to progress at all and a source tells me he was losing strength as well and the pain was problematic, making much of the normal rehab work either excruciating or impossible.

Surgery for this type of injury is all too common with pitchers, but does have a good success rate. The downside is the long rehab, which is quoted as six to eight months but is functionally nine in most cases with the late rehab throwing program and ramp up. That puts Ray in place for a relatively normal off-season and being ready for spring training, but that also implies a normal rehab with no setbacks.

Losing Ray is tough for the Mariners now, but they’re locked in for three more years and should be able to get value. Ray has an opt out after next year, but the injury risk will make it tougher for him to get a better deal unless he comes back to top form in ‘24. That’s the give and take of opt outs and seems well designed here. Chris Flexen is locked into the rotation now and at 0-4, that’s a huge downgrade from Ray’s level. The M’s do have a prospect-laden rotation at Double-A Arkansas, so they may have to make an aggressive move in the next month if they want to stay in contention.

KENTA MAEDA, SP MIN (inflamed elbow)

Kenta Maeda seems cursed right now. First, he gets smoked in the ankle with a hard liner. He lucks out of any serious injury, but in his next start, his back acts up. Except it’s not his back, it’s his elbow. Despite assurances from the Twins that this is nothing, it’s something enough that this time, Maeda is going to miss some time. An MRI will tell us the extent of the damage, but the team isn’t going to put a timeline on this outside of the worst cases.

One question I asked a Twins source is whether the team - loaded with smart guys and pitching focused - thinks the two injuries are interrelated. Paraphrasing a more technical explanation, the answer is yes and the Twins have data showing it. The time off is going to be data-driven as well, with the team using tech to show when the ankle, elbow, and everything else is back where they want it to be.

What we don’t have then is a timeline. The 10-day IL is likely and gives us the floor, but since there’s basically a test that Maeda has to pass, and a bit of a lag between the test and the score, my guess is that this will go longer even in the best case scenario. The worst could be quite long, depending on what’s going on inside the elbow. What they do in both the short and long term is unclear, but the Twins have a number of options to fill that rotation slot.

ADAM WAINWRIGHT, SP STL (strained hamstring)
JAMES PAXTON, SP BOS (strained hamstring)

One of the hardest things to do is to assess in the now. The Jets aren’t buying Aaron Rodgers the top QB. They’re not even getting the back-to-back MVP from just a few years back. They’re getting an expensive age-39 player who’s expensive. Sure, it worked for the Buccaneers, but never buy a past name and expect future performance.

That’s the issue for the Cardinals. After last year’s victory lap came with more victories, the team is struggling for multiple reasons, and it’s easy to say that Yadier Molina would be the solution to perhaps two of them. It’s just as easy to say that getting Adam Wainwright back in the rotation would help, but his two rehab appearances at Double-A have been disastrous. He’s not missing bats, his velocity is down, and while we don’t have Statcast data, a team official who has access to on-site metrics tells me even the vaunted curve isn’t playing as well. It’s hard to think that the Cardinals would cut bait and make it so Wainwright essentially retired with Molina and Albert Pujols, but what if age caught up to him all at once.

It happens, and it can’t help that Wainwright and several Cards were off at the WBC this spring, but players do often “not age” and then suddenly fall off a cliff. We see that a lot with what I call “iron man syndrome,” where a player is healthy for the bulk of their career, get a late career injury, and never really make it back. We saw that with Cal Ripken’s rapid post-streak decline, Johnny Damon, and even Tom Brady, whose extreme off-field methods were thought to be fighting Father Time. Nope, undefeated. Word is that he’ll have his next start in Memphis, a step up and maybe there will be some more positive vibes for him there.

The same might be true for James Paxton, differently. Paxton is only age-34, but it’s been a tough time with all the injuries, surgeries, and rehabs. There’s no way to say that Paxton is durable, though he’s been able to come back with his stuff thus far along the way and be good enough when healthy to keep getting shots. People, especially scouts, remember the stuff, and there only needs to be one coach that says “I can fix him.” But if they can’t, what happens then?

Paxton will have his fifth rehab outing and there have been no problems with his hamstring, shoulder, or elbow. He just hasn’t been very good. Is he one of their five best starters now? Is he able to take a long relief role and stay ready in case one of the five get injured - and this appears to be a fragile group - or even handle the relief role after getting lit up in his rehab relief outing. At $4m, it’s not a relatively expensive thing if they let Paxton go, but there’s more to it than that, as the Red Sox attempt to hang with a really good division.

TAIJUAN WALKER, SP PHI (inflamed forearm)
RANGER SUAREZ, SP PHI (strained forearm)

Taijuan Walker won’t have an MRI - yes, will not - after an examination by team doctors. There wasn’t significant inflammation and the manual testing gave both the team and Walker confidence to begin the rehab without a new scan on his forearm. Walker played catch Thursday and had “normal soreness”, so the team remains encouraged and he’s on plan for his start, currently scheduled for Monday against the Dodgers. Let’s note that this trip has a scheduled Bryce Harper visit to Dr. Neal ElAttrache and maybe Walker could tag along.

Ranger Suarez had his rehab appearance on Thursday, going two innings with mixed but positive results. He made his work, featured all his pitches, and did enough to know that his next start is on track. From his pitch count and his results, it would seem one more is in play, but Walker’s status might play in here. If he can go, Suarez is more likely to get one more rehab start. If he can’t, well, the Phillies have options if only a few left.

Assuming Walker’s forearm is fine, the lack of rotation depth won’t bite them, but even with some positive recent reports on Andrew Painter, there’s just nothing else. The Double-A roster has some better players, but the question of readiness and dealing with a tight 40-man roster makes that tougher. They need to get Suarez back, keep Walker functional, and hope that Painter can be a mid-season addition, along with the impending return of Harper, who won’t help the pitching, but everything else.

By the way, one of the headlines I saw while checking the IronPigs rotation was “IronPigs beat Jumbo Shrimp for fifth straight win.” Only in modern minor league baseball, folks.

Quick Cuts:

Justin Verlander will be a Rumble Pony on Friday afternoon. He’s expected to go about 50 pitches … JD Martinez missed three straight games with back spasms. While they continue to say it’s not serious, it is testing the Dodgers depth and an IL move is on the horizon. Mention of an MRI signals they may worry it’s more … George Springer got hit on the hand (#paddedgloves) by a Michael Kopech fastball. No fracture, but we’ll see if he’s able to play Friday after an off-day of ice … Javy Baez was scratched after his hand was too sore after batting practice. He was hit on the hand Wednesday (#paddedgloves), but is day to day now … Good news for Tim Anderson. He’ll begin his rehab* in Charlotte, with Pedro Grifol saying he needs 10-15 at bats … It’s bad news on Yoan Moncada, who has a disc issue. Rick Hahn says it’s not a surgical problem, but his rehab assignment is delayed … Raisel Iglesias started his rehab assignment Thursday in Triple-A. He pitched the second inning, not allowing a hit with one K. A scout in attendance said he looked “normal,” which is what you want on a rehab assignment. Expect it to be a short one … Tyler Mahle left his start Thursday with “posterior elbow pain.” He’ll undergo tests over the next few days, but losing him along with Maeda will test their ready depth in the short term … Josh Jung was hit on the hand Wednesday, then took batting practice on Thursday while wearing (#omg) a padded guard! He could be back as soon as Friday … Michael Brantley started his rehab assignment in Triple-A Sugar Land this week. The shoulder seems to be doing well. Brantley hasn’t shown any issue at the plate, though there’s been no flashy hits to hang hopes on either. He’ll stay through at least the start of next week … Watching some of the NFL Draft last night and someone mentioned that it was basically an awards show without speeches. I’m curious if the dropping ratings for those might cause them to drop the host and go to a Draft-style booth and interview format. Where’s Jon Weisman when you need him?

*An ATC from baseball wrote the other day to object to the term “start his rehab.” His point was that rehab begins almost from the time of injury, with lots of time and modalities from the medical staff. My point is that the phrase in this context is understood to be “starts a rehab assignment” or “starts the rehab clock of 20 or 30 days.” It’s just shortened to a colloquial phrase that is part of the color of this column.