UTK Special: World Series Health

Plus a lot of notes on stadiums, surgeries, and more

Let’s go ahead and call this the Fox Series. Fox not only owned the Dodgers once upon a time, but with a bi-coastal series with two big media markets and teams loaded with stars, there’s never going to be an easier series to promote. Ohtani. Judge. Betts. Soto.

And the series probably isn’t going to come down to them. Maybe we’ll get another big moment series, but we’re likely to see this come down to the normal things like execution and, more likely, a secondary player who comes up big. Given the way the game is going, it’s likely to be a power reliever who mows down a big three on one side or another. Kahnle. Hudson. Cousins. Banda.

It’s easy to think back to past World Series involving the Yanks and Dodgers, even facing each other through the ages. We remember Reggie, Koufax, Yogi, and Jackie, and going through the list of the greatest moments, there’s not a lot of unknowns stepping up. The one standout there is Don Larsen. He was a starter for the capital-Y Yankees of the 1950’s behind Whitey Ford, so he wasn’t nothing, but without that perfect game, we don’t remember him at all, no offense. I mean, do you know anything else about his career? Or the other starters in that Series?

I remember watching Kirk Gibson hobble out, taking Dennis Eckersley long, and the crowd going wild. There’s no baseball moment I remember more clearly - maybe Bartman - and I go into every World Series wondering if I’ll see something even better. One of the things I love about baseball is that I’ve been watching it - or at least remembering watching it - for four decades and I still see things that make me say “never seen that before.”

Amazing thing? Vin Scully called both, 32 years apart. It’s been longer than that since Gibson’s famous homer, which hurts to type. If something happens this series, it will be Scully’s replacement who will call it. Gotta love baseball.

In hopes of that memory, let’s get to the health issues facing the Dodgers and the Yankees as they head into the World Series:

BUEHLER? BUEHLER?

Walker Buehler looked like Walker Buehler in the NLCS, but no one seems to have an explanation why. Yes, “he pitched better” is an explanation, but not a good one. The Dodgers have been trying for the better part of a year to get Buehler back to that stage and as much as Dodgers fans want to believe that something just clicked, it’s seldom that simple. It’s much more likely that it was a simple fluke, things falling into line, than any sudden change. That happens with no hitters, when everything just seems to go right. There’s always some nice defensive play, some hittable ball that was just missed, and plenty of good pitching, which is basically what Buehler did, minus the zero hit part. It was plenty good enough for the win and gave the Dodgers more than what they needed, which was one more deep start.

Then again, maybe Buehler just clicked at the right time. There’s no question he has talent and there’s no reason to think that Tommy John surgery, even a revision, wipes out that talent. There’s too many examples of players coming back well. That said, the Dodgers haven’t done well with this and it’s more than random, though I know that the team has looked at that while the “standard” rehab is individualized to some extent, TJ rehab is pretty rote by this stage. (That’s one big reason why rehab times have stagnated and even gone backwards.) Maybe Buehler needed more pressure. We don’t and likely won’t know, but the next time out is going to be the most pressure Buehler has ever faced. Yes, he’s pitched in a World Series before, but not one against the Yankees or even with a live crowd.

If you believe something just clicked, then maybe it was as simple as going from the stretch and changing up his grip on the sweeper. It’s hard to think this wasn’t tried - was it? - but we should know quickly if he goes back to it in his first start.

BIG TRADE PAYS OFF

Andrew Friedman, Brandon Gomes, and the rest of the Dodgers changed their season with a series of trades that brought them Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech. It didn’t look like it for a while, but Game 6 of the NLCS showed it off, with Edman a hitting hero and Kopech the opener of a winning pen game. They made the deal despite Edman’s wrist having him off field not just for the time before the trade, but significantly after.

The team had some advantages on understanding Edman’s wrist, with Edman consulting with Kerlan-Jobe doctors, including Dr. Neal ElAttrache, during his rehab. They also started with a deep, flexible roster that could cover for keeping Edman out and let him play wherever he was able whenever he was able.

That’s not to say this team wasn’t good without Edman, but a bold trade made a good team better, one that clearly showed its value through the playoffs and in one big game. Edman will continue to be a key to the Dodgers in the World Series and next year when he remains a relative cheap player who could help the Dodgers balance some things out.

OHTANI PITCHING

Want to start a fight? Ask two baseball guys whether Shohei Ohtani should pass on pitching next year. I know, the Dodgers didn’t pay him that much — or defer that much — to not get the two way, but Ohtani was worth every penny with this season’s play. If he could do that again, it’d be tempting, but he comes with unique risks. I still think making him a reliever/closer is an option, though it’s tougher to control and warming up becomes an issue, even at DH. My guess is that Ohtani will be in the rotation, potentially the Opening Day starter, next year and with the unique depth issues the Dodgers have, they’ll go with something close to a six-man rotation.

In asking around about this, one person who used to work for the Angels during the Ohtani era told me that he doesn’t think it’s particularly hard for Ohtani to do both. “He’s pretty much always done it, “ he explained, “and while he might have a little more in his legs this year, he’s also been rehabbing the entire season, so it’s not zero pitching.”

HOW DO THEY SET THE ROTATION?

The real question here is how do the Dodgers optimize for the necessary bullpen game? With the 2/3/2 format and one off-day in between, the Dodgers will go Jack Flaherty in G1, Yoshinobu Yamamoto in G2, and then we have Walker Buehler and Johnny Wholestaff. Would it be better to use Buehler in G3 and see if Flaherty could come back for G4? If the team is up 3-0 or even 2-1, would that change what Roberts and Prior do for G4? Of course, being down might necessitate Flaherty in a win-or-go-home type of game as well.

Using the three starters in 1-4 would push the bullpen game to 5, with the day off behind that to recover. Then you’d have Yamamoto in G6 and Buehler added to the kitchen sink for Game 7, and if Buehler’s pitching as well as he did last game, that’s a no brainer. The Dodgers are no doubt running sims on all this and checking fatigue levels to optimize in ways we can barely think of. All it takes is execution.

FREEMAN ANKLE

There’s some whispers that Freddie Freeman is dealing with more than a high ankle sprain, but there’s no evidence for that. Frankly, if there were a fibula fracture there, it probably wouldn’t cause more issues that the sprain does, though I have a hard time imagining that the Dodgers medical staff would sign off on him playing through it. The sprain isn’t going to get better, but it can be managed. Freeman played with a small brace, with what was likely a taped ankle, and had poor results with both. He’s had a couple setbacks, but just running around on it is going to keep it from healing as quickly as possible.

Freeman’s actually done a fine job adjusting. He’s able to do most activities and isn’t a huge liability. The question is whether his hitting through the playoffs is the result of the sprain or just a slump. The former is more likely and the chance that he’s held up on the bases or doesn’t make a defensive play shows how this could go wrong. Dave Roberts isn’t too vexed if he has to make a substitution - Muncy goes across, Taylor or Hernandez go to third - but there is the option to move Betts back to short and Edman to third. It’s flexible and with a power pen, Betts isn’t going to see that many grounders (and he’s a fine shortstop.)

The worst case scenario is that Freeman has a setback and simply can’t play on it. He was out for Game 6 and that turned out fine for the Dodgers.

DODGER BULLPEN QUESTIONS

People have already forgotten that the Dodgers are down three key relievers, largely because they’ve won. John Smoltz remembered that Alex Vesia existed in Game 6, but Brusdar Graterol and Joe Kelly were afterthoughts instead of problems. Winning papers over most things like that. The team will have to decide on Vesia by Game 1 … or will they? There’s not as much penalty to an injury replacement in the World Series, so could the Dodgers keep Vesia ready and know they have some injuries that would pass scrutiny if they need to tag him in? That would be pretty bold and put MLB’s doctors in a bit of a pickle. It’s certainly within the rules, but on the edge.

My guess is he’ll be activated with the hope that his intracostal injury can be managed through two or three appearances. The need for another bullpen game sometime in the Series complicates things - everyone might be needed - but the value of the second lefty against a balanced Yankee lineup, especially a trusted one, might be worth the risk.

There’s late word that Graterol is getting some consideration for the roster as well, though it’s unclear who might be forced off if he does make it. The usage would be juggled a bit, but Graterol’s pure stuff might work well against the Yankees if he’s fully healthy and able to recover between outings.

DODGER INFIELD ISSUES

Both Gavin Lux (hip) and Miguel Rojas (sports hernia) are question marks for the World Series. Lux missed Game 6 with a strained hip flexor. He’ll get treatment over the next few days and should come back for the Series, but will have a recurrence risk there. Rojas is more of a question after being left off the NLCS roster. He’s said he can play, but he’s also headed for surgery after the season. He’ll be fine for next year, but he’s less likely to be added back unless Lux simply can’t go.

COLE FATIGUE

At this late stage of the season, everyone is fatigued. Most are in fine shape, managed well, and hopefully not being too over-amped on adrenaline - an issue we’ve seen before that can be very costly. One key person to note on seasonal fatigue is Gerrit Cole. Cole only threw 95 innings this year, but that doesn’t tell the whole story - or the right one.

Cole started the season with an ulnar nerve impingement. Simply, something pinched the nerve, causing pain and inflammation. There are a number of techniques for resolving this, from very conservative to very aggressive. We don’t know exactly which combination of therapies were tried and which worked, but there’s rumors Cole had one called hydrodissection. I’ll let you read up if you’re interested in how this works. Regardless, Cole wasn’t throwing for the first couple months of the season, but he wasn’t doing nothing. He also wasn’t building up the normal chronic workload, something the Yankees did very slowly, but again, it obviously worked.

However, did Cole’s shortened season help him not be as fatigued at this stage? The implication there is that he doesn’t recover well and loses something over the course of a normal season and there’s just no evidence of that. Pitchers (or any athlete) refuel and don’t have one “gas tank” to draw on. While seasonal fatigue is real, so is recovery. Pitching is not a “to-failure” activity and our tools of measurement are poor, especially when we don’t have our hands on the athlete. Does Cole look good this post-season? Yes, but it’s not clear and not likely that it has anything to do with pitching less.

WEAVER TRANSFORMATION

Luke Weaver is about to be a World Series closer. If you’d mentioned his name three months ago, most Yankees fans would have been “who?” Weaver has been with five teams in the last three years and signed for just $2m with the Yankees, who saw him as a swingman and maybe some rotation depth. Instead, his fastball ticked up almost two mph, four over his first season in St Louis, and his secondary pitches changed as well, dumping the slider and picking up a cutter. His strikeouts went way up, his BABIP went way down, and there’s plenty of data on the how that doesn’t clear up the why.

Inside the walls, most of the credit is going to Matt Blake and Mike Harkey, as well as some of the physical staff. There’s certainly credit there, but it’s mostly that the opportunity came up. Let’s say Clay Holmes never has some mechanical struggles. Does Weaver get the opportunity? He was good from almost the start of the season, with only a couple bad outings right at the beginning. He settled into his mix and his role and when it changed, he didn’t. It’s easy to say that he always had this in him, but even the Yankees didn’t get to it quickly, let alone the five other teams along the way.

Which raises an interesting question, one raised by sabermetricians for years - does a closer matter? If we assume there’s a basic physical floor of relative health, velocity, and stuff, plus some measure of deception or sheer funk of stuff, ala Devin Williams, then there’s probably a Luke Weaver on every team, though they’re likely unevenly distributed.

ARE CLOSERS CLUTCH?

Both Weaver and Emanuel Clase didn’t have great ALCS’s by the numbers, but is that just facing better hitters for night after night, or was it fatigue? I deal with the concept of clutch and choke on the daily in my work with NTangible and there’s a surprising amount of academic work on it, despite it being treated like a mythological bird in sports.

It is possible to have different levels of clutch as well, so someone that can be a closer and excelling in high leverage situations all season long might tighten up when it’s the playoffs, or the clinching game, or the best hitter in baseball facing up on him.

Dr. Sian Bellock has done some of the best work on this and her book “Choke” is one of the most accessible. There’s a great deal of difference between a simple high leverage situation and a playoff situation on a cognitive level. We have both physical and mental tests that can show this, but none of them are used in baseball. Something as simple as heart rate would give a lot of information, but if you go through the literature, none of these methods have been used for a high level baseball study, let alone at the pro level.

Of course this means that it’s low hanging fruit for major league teams. There’s been a huge jump in the technology they’ve used on the physical side. Just think about spin rate. If I’d said 2500 rpms to you a decade ago, you’d have no idea. Now, it’s table stakes for even travel teams to have Trackman data at tourneys. Imagine what will happen when this starts to work for mental fitness.

What Clase, Weaver, and all the players do is subject to both physical and mental stresses. They get paid well to do it and it’s not reflective of character when they fail. Revel in the wins, sympathize with the losses, and then let’s all get back to work to make all of them better.

JAZZ CHISHOLM IS STILL INJURED

I just want to remind everyone that Jazz Chisholm is playing with an elbow that will need — probably - Tommy John surgery. It’s not his throwing arm and it doesn’t affect the swing, and he’s clearly fine. It’s just one of those quirky things. For a little while there, many - including me - thought Chisholm’s season was likely over due to a slide, but here he is, wearing a funky belt and heading to the World Series. We have to wonder if the team would be the same without him on it and the medical staff managing the injury appropriately.

NESTOR RETURNS, HAMILTON DOESN’T

All signs are that Nestor Cortes will be on the World Series roster. His elbow flexor strain has cleared up and he’s been throwing while the team has been going through the playoffs. This gives Boone another lefty option and he could be used in some combination with Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt for the G3/G4 slots. Cortes might best be used as a long lefty, given both his layoff and the Dodgers lineup, though if Freeman isn’t playing, it’s not as lefty-heavy or at least lefty-productive.

Some have asked if Ian Hamilton could come back from his calf strain/high ankle sprain. The answer is physically maybe, but rules-wise, no. He was replaced on the ALCS roster, so he’s ineligible for the next round - this one. Hamilton is out of the walking boot so some speculated on his progress, but he’s not going to pitch in a game until the spring.

I’m terrible at predictions, but Yankees in 6.

Other news and notes:

I don’t know if you’ve heard NotebookLM yet, but it’s one of the most uncanny AI things yet. I put this newsletter through it and in about ten minutes, it generated a “podcast” that breaks it down. I have no idea how it does what it does. There’s some quirks — it introduces the female voice as me, it has some issues with pronunciation, but overall, it’s pretty good and listenable. Here’s the link if you’d like to check it out.

Clayton Kershaw says he’ll be back for 2025. My assumption is that means he’s picking up his $10m player option, which is reasonable if he gives them a couple wins or just acts as a decent bridge to one of the returning pitchers. The Dodgers’ rotation actually has a ton of depth, but no one’s sure how much or exactly when. Assuming it will start with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, it gets filled out with … well, that’s the issue. Tyler Glasnow may be back, or may be headed for surgery. Tony Gonsolin and Bobby Miller should be back, but there’s more question about the timing on Emmet Sheehan and Dustin May. Jack Flaherty’s not going to be cheap, but he is local and they may well need to sign someone. Walker Buehler will be an interesting call and may depend on Flaherty and how much of a discount he’s willing to give the Dodgers.

Luis Arraez had surgery to repair a sprained ligament in his thumb. Normally a six to eight week recovery, Arraez had dealt with this for much of the season and managed to win a batting title anyway. The issue could explain some of the loss of power and drive for him, which could mean good things if the Padres decide to keep him. That team is among several that may need to drastically drop payroll this off-season.

There are a lot of shifts and shuffles around front offices right now. Most are waiting to see who takes the Giants “GM” position as a signal of what direction Buster Posey is going. While we wait on that one, Rob Cerfolio has moved from the Guardians to the Cardinals to take over player development. If you thought that’s what Chaim Bloom was focusing on, you’re right, though Bloom will take the big chair in ‘26.

The Diamondbacks already have some issues with their field, but The Guardian raises some questions about the rising temperatures. With the stadium lease up in 2027, the outlying communities could pull the DBs from downtown, or they could become one of few teams that could relocate in the near term.

The destruction of the roof at Tropicana Field puts baseball in a tough situation. Oakland is already playing at a minor league field for a couple years, but the 2025 schedule is set, so a place like Nashville couldn’t accommodate two teams even if they wanted to. Steinbrenner Field is close, big enough, but doesn’t have a roof, making the wet summers tough in Tampa. SLC will have two stadiums, if Daybreak Field (the new one) is finished on time with Smith’s Field (the old one) open. It’s due to be torn down at some point, but Smith’s is one of the main contenders for the location of an MLB expansion stadium. Even so, the issue is what to do with season tickets and suite holders, so staying local is preferred. Could the Trop work without a roof? I don’t know if the structure part of the roof is necessary, but same problem. Drainage and simple moisture would be a problem in a place designed for a roof, not to mention weird visibility issues and the same catwalk problems! It seems simple to just “put a tarp on it”, but the sheer size is the issue, as is wind and weather. My guess? Al Lang Stadium will be at least part of the solution since the Rays already own it.