UTK Special: Rules Change

Unshifting Defense

First, an apology. After avoiding it for the better portion of two and a half years, I came down with a nasty case of COVID. I’ll be fine - I’m vaccinated and Paxlovid is helping - but it did wipe out the latter portion of the week. I have a couple articles in the works, plus a World Series preview. In the meantime, David Barshop checks in with the first of a series on next year’s rules changes. I think you’ll enjoy:

It’s official! Major League Baseball is putting the kibosh on the infield shift, something that has a large swath of hitters celebrating. The ban will begin in 2023 after a successful trial at the lower minor league levels, which saw infielders forced to have their feet on the dirt and two fielders on either side of second base. In the Florida State League, the infielders were required to stay away from the area extending behind second base, known as the “pie slice” area.

While there’s still much to be worked out in terms of the rule’s transition to the majors, it marks a watershed moment for the game and a cause for celebration for many who feel as though their careers have been hindered by a lack of infield regulation.

It’s too late for Justin Smoak, Russ Branyan, Jay Bruce, and others, but for those left-handed pull hitters (and some right-handers), a new era has begun.

“I get the defensive strategies,” said perennial shift candidate Joey Gallo. “I do, I’m 100% not against that. But I think at some point, you have to fix the game a little bit. I mean, I don’t understand how I’m supposed to hit a double or triple when I have six guys standing in the outfield.”

This is where a lot of people would suggest learning how to bunt, but have you ever tried to bunt a 90 mph slider? It’s hard.

Personally, seeing the new communications system used by catchers and pitchers this year has me wondering why infielders don’t have the same structure. Analytics have made it so we can use a combo of known range, incoming pitch, and swing type to perfectly position any player on the field. Hell, this would work with outfielders too! It eliminates the shift and simultaneously adds more strategy to a game that is beloved for its scheming and procedures. But, I digress…

Besides Joey Gallo, who in 2023 is a bounce-back candidate? Well, the list is long, and full of three-outcome hitters (home run, strike-out, walk), and mostly left-handers.

We used wOBA as the metric to make these determinations, as wOBA assigns value to each method of reaching base. MLB.com describes wOBA as “a version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base -- instead of simply considering whether a player reached base. The value for each method of reaching base is determined by how much that event is worth in relation to projected runs scored (example: a double is worth more than a single).”

Seattle’s switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh has faced the shift in 95.8% of his left-handed plate appearances, and 23.2% of his right-handed plate appearances. His wOBA from the left-side of the plate with the shift in place is .309, and .418 without. Right-handed with the shift, it’s .297 and .346 without. Overall he’s batting .204 for the year, a number which stands to grow next year with the new rules in place.

Teams have been shifting against Texas’ Kole Calhoun for years now, and few players should be as happy about its demise as he. His .204 batting average on the year comes with the fact that he’s seen the shift in 93.5% of his plate appearances. His wOBA with the shift in place, .263, pales in comparison to his wOBA without: .365. The 34-year old Calhoun will undoubtedly welcome the end of the shift, and perhaps a much higher average next year and beyond.

Without the shift standing in the way of several potential hits in 2023, Corey Seager could be a favored candidate for next year’s American League MVP. His career batting average is .287, which he’s accomplished despite teams shifting him for the entirety of his eight-year career. This year, however, the shift has really taken a bite out of his numbers. He’s seen the shift in 92.2% of his plate appearances, which has translated to a wOBA of .327 with the shift in place, and .397 without. His average on the year is .244, a far cry from his past numbers and what the Rangers expected from him. But look out next year: Seager without the shift is going to be frightening for opposing teams.

We mostly associate shifts with left-handed batters and for good reason. Only one right-handed batter (with more than 25 at-bats) has seen the shift in 2022 for 80% or more of his plate appearances: Eugenio Suarez. Interestingly, his numbers with and without the shift in place are nearly identical, so we’ll skip him, but next on the list of right-handers is Byron Buxton, who’s been shifted on in 78.8% of his plate appearances.

Buxton’s biggest problem is injuries, rather than the shift, but the shift certainly hasn’t helped him of late. 2022 has been his breakout year, having made his first all-star team and topping twenty homers for the first time, but his .224 batting average is not exactly something to write home about.

In 2021, Buxton batted .306 (in 61 games) and only saw an infield shift in 60.6% of his at-bats. The number of shifts he’s seen this year has skyrocketed to 78.8%, and for good reason. His wOBA with the shift in place this year is .312, and without it’s a whopping .517. Buxton is the 5-tool player every scout and GM salivates over and, with next year’s rule change giving him more of an edge at the plate, well, Buxton could be neck-and-neck with Seager in the MVP race next year.

The list goes on, and I could go on too, but it’s pretty clear that Major League Baseball wants more hits and more action. The end of the shift will definitely translate to more hits and runs, but that doesn’t mean the end of strategic infield positioning.

Certain spots on the diamond will be safe from infielder’s feet, but teams will likely still find a way to use analytics to get players where they need to be. And perhaps that will mark the beginning of the infield communications system I proposed earlier.

Maybe pitching and fielding will become more streamlined in the future, and every pitch to every batter will call for the marking of a specific spot on the diamond and outfield to stand. It doesn’t seem unreasonable for baseball’s analytic minds to find alternative strategies for their inability to pack one side of the infield. Actions often lead to reactions, and right now, baseball is changing. Bigger bases, pitch clocks, a limit on pick-off moves … and while many baseball purists may feel sickened by these changes (myself included), these changes pale in comparison to the end of the shift.

Major League Baseball in 2023 is going to look and feel different, no doubt. But most important is preserving the integrity of the game, which isn’t exactly Rob Manfred’s biggest priority. Still, I’ll welcome more hits and more runs, and most importantly, happier players, though they probably won’t be pitchers.