UTK Special: Pitch Clocks

Timing Is Everything

David Barshop continues his look at next season’s rule changes, this time at the impending pitch clock. It’s never too early to look at next year with this series:

The times are a-changing, as ol’ Bob said, and with that, Rob Manfred is once again changing the game in terms of time. The pitch clock is coming in 2023 and while it’s been tested in the minors, there’s plenty of questions about how it will be implemented, how it will affect pitchers, and whether it will actually reduce game times.

As stated by the title, timing is everything, especially when it comes to a pitcher’s mental readiness before each and every delivery. Many pitchers, particularly relievers and closers, are generally quirky in their routines and, well, just in general sometimes. Brian Wilson, Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon: these are just a few of the eccentric personalities that have closed out games in the recent past, and done so with modicum of success.

Besides being offbeat, colorful guys, these pitchers have one big thing in common: an almost annoying deliberation in between each pitch thrown. While two of those three players have retired, there are still plenty of Major League pitchers who spend a frustrating amount of time pacing the mound, shaking off pitches, and staring into the catcher’s mitt for seemingly forever.

It is not uncommon for boos to rain down on these guys from unhappy fans, both home and away. I’ve been to several Dodger games where loyal fans booed Kenley Jansen for just taking too damn long to throw his next pitch, which, everyone in the stadium knew was the same pitch he ALWAYS throws: his cutter.

But there must be method to the madness, right? Considering the madness that seems to accompany many of these late inning relievers, the method might be too hard to fathom.

Unfortunately for the Kenley Jansen’s, Aroldis Champman’s and other deliberate closers, that method will have to change in 2023 when Major League Baseball implements its pitch clock.

The pitch clock will give each pitcher 15 seconds to throw a pitch with the bases empty and 20 seconds with a runner on base. Additionally, hitters must be in the batter’s box and ready to hit with eight seconds on the pitch clock. If a pitcher has not started his pitching motion before the clock (expected to be prominently featured in each stadium) hits 0, he will be charged with a ball. On the flipside, any batter who can’t hold his end of the bargain time-wise, will be charged with a strike.

The league hopes these changes will lead to shorter games following a successful minor league experiment which saw the average game time in 2022 decrease 20 minutes from the previous year.

Granted, 15 seconds doesn’t sound that terrible. I mean, incorporating time elements into the game of baseball is an absolute travesty, something that should have Rob Manfred sent packing, but one would think most pitchers should have no problem adapting to this new rule. Right?

Well, Statcast/Savant found that in 2022, only 23 qualifying pitchers delivered the ball to home plate in an average time of less than 15.1 seconds. As for the other 376 qualifying pitchers this year, the numbers indicate that they will have to pitch with much, much more haste.

Who are the league’s biggest offenders? No surprise, the league’s 31 slowest pitchers are all relievers, led by New York’s Jonathan Loáisiga and St. Louis’ Giovanni Gallegos with a mind-numbing average of 25.8 seconds in between pitches. Kenley Jansen is a close second (or second to last) with 25.6 seconds.

There’s an old adage about dogs and their inability to learn new tricks, so what will these veteran pitchers do to adapt next year? It’s not just about altering timing, it’s about changing a whole routine, something many players are loathe to do.

These guys could just get set faster, with no pacing around the mound, or checking the runners on base, but at what cost? How can one expect the same positive results from 13-year veteran Kenley Jansen when he’s suddenly asked to change his preparatory routine on the mound?

Is that really fair to the players? And is that even what the fans want? An extra 20 minutes of free time at the expense of good baseball? If Jansen is pressed for time, which he will be since he’ll be forced to cut his routine almost in half, will he still be effective? Only time will tell.

Consider: we’re talking about here some longtime veterans who have had extremely successful careers. Will Aroldis Chapman be the same pitcher next year when he’s forced to speed up his excruciatingly long 24.6 seconds time between pitches?

My feeling is that it will be easier for the younger pitchers in relief roles like Devin Williams (24.7 seconds), Camilo Doval (22.3 seconds), and Josh Hader (22.1 seconds) to adapt to these changes, but as for the older dogs like Jansen, Chapman, and Daniel Bard (21.4 seconds), there’s a good chance we’ll see more than a couple balls called for, shall we say, their systematic, methodical approaches.

I can’t help but wonder how many blown saves will come from this pitch clock burden. Perhaps I’m not giving these pitchers enough credit, and maybe not much will change at all from where they stand.

Still, it just seems silly to take away so much routine and pre-pitch preparation from players who have been doing the same thing with great success for so many years. It’s possible that more pitchers will make the switch to PitchCom, which could potentially make things faster but, as I mentioned earlier, baseball players are creatures of habit, and many pitchers might be daunted by the idea of using such a device on the mound.

There really is no way to predict the negative impact the pitch clock will have on many of these pitchers and batters in many cases. Former first baseman and manager Mike Hargrove, the Human Rain Delay, certainly would not have approved of such a measure while he was playing.

Speaking of negative impact, Dr. Mike Sonne, recently named head of Sports Science for the Chicago Cubs, noted in the Journal of Sports Science, that if “MLB implemented a pitch clock of 20 seconds, or, used the 12 second rule already in place, muscle fatigue levels would increase by 6 to 9%.”

Sonne, a biomechanist, also found that pitchers who exhibit slower routines are able to maintain a high, consistent velocity on their pitches. Speed those pitchers’ routines up to a point where they’re not comfortable (or not ready), and said velocity decreases substantially pitch-by-pitch.

It’s fatigue which is the major problem, according to Sonne. Along with pitching on consecutive days, high velocity, and total pitches, pace between pitches is one of the biggest inducers of muscle fatigue, and consequently, serious arm injuries. Baseball injury experts Dr. James Andrews, Dr. Glenn Fleisig, and Dr. Jeremy Bruce all concur that fatigue is “the single greatest risk factor for elbow injuries.”

Does this mean the number of arm injuries increase in 2023? Will we see a record number of Tommy John surgeries being performed? Luckily the minor league pitch clock experiment did not lead to more arm injuries than usual, but the small sample size doesn’t prove enough to give me comfort.

While relievers are generally the biggest offenders of pitching promptness, there are plenty of starters too who will be forced to change the way they pitch. Shohei Ohtani will have to cut back on his 22.1 seconds, Yu Darvish on his 21.0, and Jose Suarez on his 22.1.

As mentioned earlier, Statcast shows only 23 pitchers who won’t have to alter their approach on the mound, as they average 15 seconds or under. But that leaves more than 91% of current Major League pitchers who will have to make changes to their routine, some way more than others.

Fortunately for Logan Webb (14.5 seconds), Shane Bieber (14.6 seconds), and Cal Quantrill (14.9 seconds), just to name a few, they can continue doing exactly what they’re doing to achieve the same success they’ve had since breaking into the big leagues.

As in my previous article, I not only argue against, but worry about, (too much) change in baseball. I railed against banning the shift, but here I find myself legitimately nervous about this pitch clock. I’ve never felt games were too long, nor do I think it’s the job of the commissioner to try to speed the game up.

We just have to acknowledge that next year will mark another new era in baseball. From Babe Ruth and the lively ball, to Bob Gibson and the lowered mound, to Ron Blomberg and the designated hitter, things do change in the game. Now, the pitch clock era is set to begin. The big question is: what, will Manfred do next?