UTK Special: NFL Records Fall In 2021?

David Barshop Looks at How 17 Games Might Change Everything

David Barshop previously wrote an article about the NFL adding an eighteenth week to the 2021 season. This extra week is destined to bring new drama to next season, with most of that coming from old, hallowed records being flipped on their heads in that last game. This follow-up takes a look at which records might fall and which names might get new entries in black ink.

So many long standing single-season records have come dangerously close to falling recently, most notably with Adrian Petersen and Derrick Henry making valiant efforts at the rushing record in the last decade. But had either of them had a seventeenth game that year, this would be a different story. Petersen likely would have gotten the nine yards he needed on the first drive of the last game, possibly even his first carry. As for Henry, he would have needed a fairly average game by his standards to get the 79 yards he needed.

But now with training camp fast approaching, rather than dwelling on the “what-ifs” of the past, it’s time to look into the future. With immeasurable help from Mike Tanier and Steve Palazzolo, I assembled a list of players and the records I think are theirs for the taking. This extra week of football should prove to be a big game-changer (no pun intended). The numbers I projected are tentative and rely on health and production from them and the players around them.

So lets go down the list, shall we?

Passing Yards

“Pretty much every passing and receiving record is fair game in the seasons to come,” says Tanier, and I have to agree with him. We’re seeing a crop of quarterbacks with as much talent that has ever been in the league before. Additionally, Palazzolo notes how the NFL has shifted into a pass-dominant league, making no passing record insurmountable, especially with the extra game. As it stands now, Peyton Manning’s 5,477 passing yards in 2013 is the most in a single season, but I feel it will be the first record broken in the extended season.

The candidates:

Patrick Mahomes – Too easy, too obvious, I know. But if anyone is going to finish 2021 as the new record holder, it is most likely to be Mahomes. Helped by a strong offensive line and a deep, talented core of playmakers, Mahomes has all the talent and support he needs to break Manning’s record. “I honestly thought Patrick Mahomes, even with the 16-game schedule, might have a year where he throws for like 6,000 yards at some point, says Palazzolo. “I think 6,000 is not off the table for just the right player and the right season.” I have to agree with him that not only could Mahomes break the record, but could he shatter it with 6,000 yards? That would be something.

2021 Projections: 5,900 Passing Yards

Dak Prescott – Prescott’s dealt with his share of criticism since becoming the Cowboys starter, but man can he sling it. After throwing for nearly 5,000 yards in 2019, he was on pace to throw for 6,310 yards last year (in a 17-game) season before he got hurt last year. Like Mahomes, Prescott has all the talent around him he needs to break Manning’s record. He’s got three receivers who surpassed 800 receiving yards last year who are all in the prime’s of their career and a strong o-line to keep him upright. I have high hopes for him this year. Of course, he also has to stay healthy which seems to be the biggest issue.

2021 Projections: 5,600 Passing Yards

Matthew Stafford – Stafford may not be an obvious choice, but between the cannon he has for a right arm, offensive genius Sean McVay as his new head coach calling plays, and a welcome change of scenery for the former first overall pick, the sky is the limit for him this year. Stafford will take the field week one with the most talented roster he’s been on in several years and presumably with a renewed sense of energy and spirit. It was tough for me not to pick Justin Herbert here, but I think he’s still a year or two away from being ready to start rewriting record books.

2021 Projections: 5,500 Passing Yards

Rushing Yards

Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 yards has been the record since 1984, but it has come dangerously close to being broken several times since then (as previously mentioned). The NFL is indeed a passing league right now, but said passing game has really opened up the run game, and as Steve Palazzolo notes, “it’s much easier to average four and a half yards per carry now than it used to be.” Although there is a shortage of bell cow running backs in the league who can really carry an offense like back in the old days, it’s a veritable quality over quantity proposition as we look at three running backs who could destroy Dickerson’s record this year:

The candidates:

Derrick Henry – Henry is the obvious first choice here considering his 2,027 rushing yards from last year. More than that though is Henry’s usage in the Titans offense. Mike Tanier notes that “rushing rates have declined” in the league, but that doesn’t hold true for Henry, who led all running backs with 378 rushing attempts, 66 more than second place Dalvin Cook (more on him in a second). Henry is that old-school bell cow who can single-handedly lead a team to victory from his spot in the backfield. Additionally, Henry doesn’t catch many passes, so we don’t have to worry about him losing any carries. He does his damage running the ball, and that’s what we’ll see him doing more of this year. He could have broken Dickerson’s record last year, but with one extra game this year, he has an even better chance.

2021 Projections: 2,160 Rushing Yards

Dalvin Cook – Cook might be the single most talented running back in the league. In his four years in the league, Cook has never averaged below 4.5 yards per game, which is indicative of his explosiveness and big play ability. The only thing that could hold Dalvin Cook back is a suspect o-line which lost talented run-blocker Riley Reiff to the Bengals this offseason. IF Cook can overcome the alleged shortcomings of the Vikings line, he could rack up enough yards in 17 games to make this record all his own.

2021 Projections: 2,120 Rushing Yards

Christian McCaffrey – The only question mark surrounding him is health. After a shoulder injury limited him to three games last year, McCaffrey should be fresh this year and with a new quarterback in Sam Darnold joining him in the backfield who also has something to prove. Bookended by two very talented receivers in D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson only helps him, and assuming he can stay healthy for the full season, I expect him at the very, very least to win Comeback Player of the Year with a strong showing this season.

2021 Projections: 2,100 Rushing Yards (and another 500 through the air)

Catches

I struggled between catches and receiving yards with this pick, but ultimately decided on catches based on the sheer volume of thrown balls in the NFL today. Two years ago, Michael Thomas caught 149 passes from Drew Brees, a record that I don’t think he’ll own for too much longer, nor do I think he’ll have a shot at breaking himself with Brees retired and Jameis Winston as his QB1. There is a solid group of guys who could do it this year with a little luck and a little health, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this record re-set by the end of 2021.

The candidates:

Travis Kelce – Really, a tight end? Travis Kelce transcends the tight end position. He’s permanently raised the bar as do-everything player who just happens to be a tight end. Did I mention he has Patrick Mahomes throwing to him? Well he does, which partially explains his all-pro wide receiver numbers. Kelce has surpassed 100 catches in two out of his last three years, and there is no number that is off the table for him. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Travis Kelce break Thomas’ catch record this year, or next year, or frankly any year with Mahomes as his quarterback. Those two put on quite a show together on offense.

2021 Projections: 155 Catches

Stefon Diggs – I admit to not being a big believer in Josh Allen when he was drafted by the Bills with the seventh overall pick in 2018, but I will also admit to being dead wrong about him. When the Bills brought Stefon Diggs last year from Minnesota, they gave Allen the true number one receiver he needed to take the next step into greatness. Together they formed arguably the best QB/WR combo in the league last year and I think they will continue to build on that rapport next year. Diggs finished last year with a league-leading 127 catches, which next year could, and should go way up. An elite o-line should give Allen and Diggs plenty of time and opportunities to make magic happen together again next year.

2021 Projections: 152 Catches

DeAndre Hopkins – Here’s another wide receiver who found great chemistry in his first year together with a new quarterback. Hopkins is 29 years old, meaning he’s soon to be on the downswing of his career. However, that has not happened yet, as his 115 catches last year tied his career high from 2018. I expect another year together with Kyler Murray (and offensive guru Kliff Kingsberry calling plays) to make them even more formidable. I’d be shocked if the Murray/Hopkins combination doesn’t yield something very special for the two of them in the coming years.

2021 Projections: 150 Catches (Just made it!)

David Barshop is a research assistant at Under The Knife, an occasional contributor, and lives in southern California.