UTK Special: Championship Series Health

3,500+ Words, so get comfortable

If the Series’ themselves were dramatic, we kind of ended up in a place we expected. Yankees and Dodgers? They should be there. The Dodgers seemed inevitable this offseason, though the shape of their path here was anything but to plan. Cleveland had a path, if not the easiest one, with a division that certainly offered up an opportunity. The Mets are less expected, but it seems we get one hot team every year, or last year, two. They respected the gimmicks, and each other, and seemingly got smarter as they went.

Dodgers and Phillies … ok, that one was my pre-season NLCS prediction and even if I was playing the odds, I knew then that the playoffs don’t go the way of the best teams too often. Bryce Harper knows that and we’ll see how the Phillies, Dave Dombrowski, and John Middleton - the best owner in baseball? - answer back to another playoff disappointment. (Is that Scott Boras on line one?)

No one can look at these four teams, expected or not, and say that injuries didn’t impact their seasons. What they’ve done, in various ways, is manage them and not allow it to take over their season, even in the face of being destroyed by them. “Next man up” isn’t a real strategy, but it is a real thing. Justin Wrobleski may have saved the Dodgers’ season and isn’t even on the playoff roster. He started his 2023 in A ball and most of 2024 was in Dodger Stadium. That one wasn’t on Brandon Gomes’ list of outcomes.

While each of these teams overcame some injuries, there’s still a lot of talent. MVPs, deep power pens, and secondary players that have a chance to become October memories. Two big impending free agents who could add a mansion or two to their contract with a couple good series. Everything is in place for a great week of baseball ahead of the World Series.

One of the changes you’ll see in this round is that I’m not as focused on the “This guy’s hurt and I’m worried about that guy.” In two rounds, we’ve figured that out, apart from situations where it’s changed. Instead, I’m going to look back to how these teams got here and how dealing with the injuries that every team does has colored what they do now.

It’s a long one today (and free!), so let’s get to it …

NY METS VS LA DODGERS

These Mets aren’t the Mets you would have expected at the start of 2024. But even less so in 2023. Steve Cohen came in with the big stack and pushed it around. Justin Verlander. Max Scherzer. In hindsight, we can see what a mistake both those moves were. While Scherzer contributed to a World Series, it wasn’t for the Mets.

Instead, David Stearns came in and remade a team on the fly, with what we’re supposed to believe was a plan. If so, it was Plan B and that’s fine. That’s the sign of a smart executive, that they can change, be ready, and make the most of it. Luisangel Acuna will need years to see if he was the right payoff, but in the last week of this season, it might just be enough since it got them here while team - if not league - MVP Francisco Lindor finally came out of the lineup with a back injury. Which reminds me, it’s still there. It’s still being managed. There’s likely to be things done in the off-season, perhaps even surgery, but Lindor’s pretty good and chalk some of the credit to the medical staff.

The rest of the lineup is both healthy and seemingly not worn down. Francisco Alvarez had some issues through the season, as most young catchers will, but the team has him ready to go and at his peak now when they need him. The team might also add Jeff McNeil back for the LCS. He’ll play in the AFL on Friday and Saturday and if the wrist holds up, he’ll be back. He’d likely replace Acuna, but would he supplant Jose Iglesias for playing time? I think the Mets would give him the chance and use Iglesias as a defensive sub.

The rotation should be the same. Kodai Senga was due up for Game 5 and should be the guy for Game 1, though the team could reconfigure. Senga could throw a sim and get the workload up some more from his last outing, then pitch in a later game (probably 3 or more likely 4) with a few more pitches on the limiter. (Late word is that he’ll go in 1.) They also have the flexibility to use David Peterson and Tylor Megill creatively, though at least one would be Senga’s shadow.

The pen is solid, deep, and largely defined. Edwin Diaz had some early struggles as he came back from his patellar tendon repair, but that’s a tough injury. That he settled and has had no problems from about May on is testament to his and the medical staff’s work. Losing Christian Scott and Paul Blackburn - who was supposed to solidify the back end of the rotation, which it ended up doing itself - didn’t help, but they weren’t deadly.

Carlos Mendoza and his staff are tight and well integrated with the front office and ownership. That helps at a time like this where he’s in new territory. The longtime Yankee was Aaron Boone’s bench coach and that knowledge could be interesting if they end up facing off. Otherwise, Mendoza’s staff is likely to continue to be like what one source said was “duck mode”: quiet on top, very active under the surface.

***

The Dodgers had more injuries than any other team this season. That shouldn’t be news to anyone that’s read this newsletter for any period of time. They’re actually down this year, which might surprise even regular readers, but this year, the pitching injuries defined the Dodgers’ season. The issue is more what I’ve termed a stack. It’s tough to lose one starter. Lose six and things get really weird, especially because pitching injuries carry over from season to season and the consequences stack as well. Even so, a team is usually going to get some of those back, or backfill from previous seasons.

The Dodgers did none of that. Pitchers they got back were terrible. Awful. Barely even useful. Yes, I’m looking at you, Walker Buehler, but the way almost every pitcher coming back from injury went was poor. Yoshinobu Yamamoto came back from his cuff strain to spend a month looking like an average starter until one good start in the LDS. Hey, timing matters.

Somehow, Dave Roberts and Mark Prior made it through the season in first, then took out the Padres in a short series as well. That’s no small set of feats given the challenges. The team came into the LDS with two, maybe three functional starters and one of those had a major question in Yamamoto. A bullpen game carried them through, but a longer series is only going to exacerbate the fact that the Dodgers are down to the thirteenth guy on their pre-season depth chart in Landon Knack.

The NLCS rotation is going to be even more problematic. The assumption is that Jack Flaherty will take Game 1, followed by Walker Buehler. Yamamoto could come back for Game 3, but Game 4 is either a bullpen game or Landon Knack. No, Clayton Kershaw is not walking through that door. Tony Gonsolin might, as he threw well in OKC, but things have gone quiet on his rehab from Tommy John. I doubt he could start, though he could have been building workload along the way. A bullpen game in four would basically be a pivot and the schedule has an off-day after (with cross-continent travel, mind you), so it could work. Doing it in a raucous Citi Field, especially if down in the series, might be tougher, but I don’t see an option.

The pen is missing some parts as well, including Joe Kelly and Brusdar Graterol. XXX Alex Vesia came out in Game 5 with a back injury, which could factor in to his usage and the pen itself. If Vesia isn’t ready, that leaves Anthony Banda as the only lefty on the whole staff. (Has Justin Wrobleski been throwing, just in case?)

On the field side, Freddie Freeman’s ankle will benefit from the weekend off, but it’s not likely to completely heal. Even with significant bracing, he’s having a hard time with stability and is clearly limited in mobility. He’s doing just enough to play, but the recurrence risk is high and Roberts is having to judge from inning to inning if Freeman is still the best choice. This could continue through the NLCS and be a significant issue, though the Dodgers can easily shift Max Muncy over to first in most situations and not hurt themselves defensively.

Miguel Rojas remains troubled by a groin issue. Again, the Dodgers’ flexibility allows Roberts to shuffle a bit and fill the spot, but Rojas’ defense is a big plus for starters. The bullpen is much more a strikeout bunch and defense - at least ground balls - don’t matter as much, but some plays still have to be made.

Once again, this team will go as far as their pitching takes them, with the caveat that there’s enough hitting talent to win a game or two on the back of Ohtani or Betts. The Dodgers almost need to win with moments rather than innings or games, which is well within their talent level. If the shape of the season wasn’t expected, the result certainly was and once again, Dave Roberts has the Dodgers on the verge of a World Series. All that can stop him now is OMG … and health.

NY YANKEES VS CLEVELAND

Getting here isn’t the surprise for the Yankees, but how they’ve come through the playoffs? That might be. The team led by Aaron Judge was carried by Giancarlo Stanton, hardly a secondary player but that’s what he’s become during the last couple years, largely due to various injuries. In the last series, he led the team in WPA, with only four players in the positive - Stanton, Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe. On the other side, the Yankees pitching shut down Bobby Witt Jr and that was that.

The Yankees made it through a 94-win season with a largely settled lineup. Five of nine had over 600 PA and catcher was a bit of a platoon/swap. Anthony Rizzo and DJ LaMahieu’s injury (and underperformance) led to changes there. Stanton got in 459 PA, high for him, but still problematic in the scheme of his career and contract.

Rizzo missed time with a broken arm, then broken fingers at the end of the season. Quirky, unlucky injuries, but Rizzo has a chance to be back for the LCS. He’s been hitting and the team now gets a couple days to take a hard look and decide who they’d drop from the lineup. Some have suggested it would be Duke Ellis, the pinch runner. DJ LeMahieu is also still working, but there have been less suggestions he would be added. A second change on the roster would make for tougher decisions, especially with Jon Berti playing well at third.

There have been some notable decisions from the bench, including the low leverage usage of Ellis that cost the Yankees Stanton’s bat late in a close game and the use of Alex Verdugo over Jasson Dominguez, who didn’t get in the four game series at all. Joe Sheehan and I texted during some of the games and I’m sure he’ll have more on this topic, but Boone’s not alone in a confusing use of bench resources.

The pitching side was not only solid as expected, but the dominance of Gerrit Cole should put even more credit on the medical staff who helped bring him back from his nerve issue in the spring. While slower than expected, the results from his return show that they did the right thing and they’re getting the pay off now. Give the rehab staff an extra half share, guys. Cole’s 1/4 games do set up an interesting challenge. Cole could go in Game 2/6 for the ALCS and stay on schedule, or he could push a day early and potentially go 1/4/7. My guess is that they’ll go the conservative route, hoping that the lack of offense from either opponent plays to their pitcher, adds some rest, and save the extra work for the World Series.

Beyond Cole, the key pitcher was Luke Weaver. He’s a journeyman at best that’s suddenly having the best half-season of his career. Whatever Matt Blake unlocked hasn’t been there in a decade-long run through MLB rotations and pens. Whatever it is, even with more media attention on him, Weaver and Blake aren’t giving up the secret, though it seems to have been almost instant from his waiver claim to the Bronx. The Yankees will need more from their pen than just Weaver, or Boone will need to make better decisions on who and when.

The rotation is steady, but Nestor Cortes could be back as soon as the ALCS. He’s thrown a couple times and seems more focused on relieving, where he could be another lefty, than on building up. It make sense and would be another place where a quick rehab from the Yankees staff could contribute.

The Yankees have minimized the injuries they’ve had this season. There was no way for them to replace Gerrit Cole, but they had enough depth to get through it and while his absence wasn’t short, the near complete lack of complications since is telling. It will be symbolic of how this team got this far, though far more time will be spent on Juan Soto, especially with his impending free agency. Sign the medical and rehab staff first, Mr. Steinbrenner, then work on Soto.

***

There wasn’t enough Tarik Skubal, or maybe enough chaos, to keep the Cleveland Guardians out of the ALCS. Nor did the unexpected loss of TV money which upended their off-season plans. It’s a unique team, and one you have to wonder what it would look like if Francisco Lindor hadn’t been sent to the Mets a couple seasons ago for small owner reasons. I won’t go full trade tree here, but Lindor’s return is functionally just Andres Giminez and no offense to Gimenez, but no one makes that trade straight up, absent the salary relief. Still, a rookie manager and a stable front office get all the way here, which is no small feat and makes you wonder what new ownership might do in a couple years.

For now, the Guardians are almost a team of theories. Can you win with a roster that’s nearly all homegrown? Can you create a full bullpen of archetypes, then get your manager to be able to use them properly? Can hitters gain power with data? Can a rotation succeed without anything resembling an ace? I’m old enough to remember when Mike Chernoff was just an intern, taking several BPers like myself to drinks after an event at then Jacobs Field and I think he was taking good notes that night. The Guardians win with a low payroll not because they’re finding market inefficiencies - they’re just cheap - but because they’re building with purpose and intent.

The rotation is good and essentially of a level. Tanner Bibee is the number one, but he’s not an ace. That’s not an insult; he’s not supposed to be the one and would be better suited to being a three behind Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, but that plan didn’t work, so Bibee and the other five starters are basically a quiver of threes, which can work as well. Adding Alex Cobb was an interesting late move, allowed by the medical staff’s competence as well as some trust in the Giants’ staff as well.

The pen is different. Emmanuel Clase is one of few imports on the team, but they simply didn’t have one. Most don’t. Clase was a Newberg Report favorite flipped for Corey Kluber - oops - and even missing last season with Tommy John as so many 100 Club members do, he came back to similarly dominate with heat. In front of him, much the same. They’ve got five guys that can come out throwing 95 or better with secondary stuff and again, most of it homegrown or at least developed. Vogt isn’t afraid to use any of them at any situation, including early, and has the depth to do it.

In the field … well did I mention these were mostly homegrown? Lane Thomas was an inspired mid-season trade that largely went without notice and had more impact than anyone else save maybe Jack Flaherty. The DH’s came in trades of the type that Cleveland makes. David Fry was a PTBNL for JC Mejia. (Who?) Kyle Manzardo was a bit more of a big prospect, part of the Aaron Civale spin cycle. (If you notice that Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa do a lot of deals, that’s not an accident.)

Trades and platoons are about the only reason that the Guardians don’t have a bunch of 500 PA guys. Only Jose Ramirez is star level, but the rest do just enough to get by. None are good for fantasy teams and their names won’t get the notice of even secondary Yankees, but that’s just fine. They’re largely healthy, largely useful, and gosh darn it, that’s good enough to fight for a pennant when it all works.

Steven Vogt is new, but that’s really about it aside from a few he brought with him, including several from the previous Giants admin. Vogt was thought of as a future manager even early in his career, but most show their lack of experience with tactic and nuance and make up for it with being almost one of the boys. Add that new energy to a stable front office and medical staff and apparently, good things happen. (Note that, fans of teams calling for yet another change.) The Guardians haven’t been as constant as the bridge that gave them their new name, but they’ve long been on the same page. The next chapter starts in the Bronx.

OTHER NEWS:

Has there ever been a season with better MVP runners up? I know, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge haven’t won it yet, but Francisco Lindor and Bobby Witt Jr would be great winners in many other years. With all four in the playoffs and only one eliminated ahead of the LCS, it’s good for baseball and especially for Fox. Big stars, big markets, and what should be good, close series. With the NFL and the election, even all this probably won’t mean huge ratings, but my guess is we’ll have a lot of people in twenty years talking about how they were inspired to play baseball by “that great Series back in ‘24.”

There’s already been some comparisons about what is ongoing in San Francisco to the exodus and culture change in Houston. The Astros went from one of the most analytical teams to one of the … well, not … in the course of two seasons. Jim Crane shifted and as the owner goes, so goes the team in so many cases. What’s intriguing about the Giants is that they’ve long been one of the testing grounds for advanced tech, simply by their location. That isn’t exactly “analytics” but a lot of things get lumped together in situations like this and the shift could help other teams.

Add another team to the sale list. The Pohlad family, which owns the vast majority of the Twins, liked what they saw in terms of valuation when they sold a small percentage to PE. They’re “exploring a sale”, which means they called Allen & Co and asked them to look at their list of people ready to buy a team that they know would be approved. These are mostly current minority owners of other franchises, but there’s always someone that pops up when announcements like this happen. With the Nationals, White Sox, and some sources saying the Angels, Braves, and Padres being considered for sale in at least part, that’s a lot of teams out there. One source tells me while there’s not an expected buyer in Minnesota the way there is in Washington, he wouldn’t be stunned to see the Wylf family, owners of the Vikings, Orlando City, and Nashville SC, or for Nashville’s owner John Ingram to take a look. He’s already rumored to be in on the Nashville expansion bid, though the Twins are in little danger of moving.

Several teams had issues coming into the season with TV money. The continuing and drawn out failure of Diamond Sports (“Bally’s”) might end up messing with several teams. The Rangers are going to go it alone, but MLB isn’t going to fully make up the local rights for what could be as many as a dozen teams. It also won’t be able to put together a true all-in-one package with less than half the teams and some very happy with what they have, right LA and New York?

The Dodgers* sold their analytics company. Zelus Analytics was sold to Teamworks, one of the leaders in sports tech, though no price was given. Teamworks isn’t well known, but is growing rapidly across sports, so getting Zelus is intriguing in a lot of ways, especially with inroads into teams. *Yes, I know it’s Elysian Ventures and not the Dodgers, but finding space between the two is difficult.

Sportico had a really interesting article on how MLB players and others with guaranteed contracts can take loans against them. I’d like to think players could manage, even at the low end, at the major level, but I know better. I wonder why MLB teams themselves couldn’t have options to spread payments out for those that so choose (or do a deal with some bank to do it at a better rate. Another chance for “Official Bank of Offseason Financing”!) The next CBA isn’t that far off.