UTK Special 7/31/25

Infinite Trades

With the trade deadline upon us, there’s a lot of names rumbling about as teams try to improve. You know the usual suspects but today, I’m going to focus on the pitching side and do it with the help of a new tool that you haven’t seen before called Infinite Sky. I was given exclusive access to some of their data and wanted to share it with you.

First, let’s set up a couple definitions, because while everyone uses these terms, they can often mean very different things. Infinite Sky has given me access to their Command Tracker, a proprietary tool drawn from video processing that leads to a ton of novel innovations. With Command Tracker, Infinite Sky is able to detect both intent and result, with the difference initially measured in a percentage, which they call Command Index. If a pitcher is trying to throw to a certain spot - let’s say the bottom corner on the pitcher’s left (catcher’s right, or outside to a right handed hitter) - and he misses by a couple inches, the result is vastly different. Hit his spot and it’s a nasty strike, especially with velocity and movement. Miss out or down and it’s a ball. Miss up and in? That’s a very hittable spot and not at all what anyone intended.

If a pitcher could hit the intended spot every single time, he’d have a 100 percent Command Index. To be clear, there’s a bit of an error bar. The ball is three inches, half the plate is nine, so missing by an ball’s width is within tolerances. It’s when it gets far outside that and more inconsistent over a large number of pitches that things get more concerning. Most pro pitches are very good, with a small range between 85 percent and 77 percent. The difference between “good” and “bad” is small at this level, as you’d expect.

I’m curious because Infinite Sky works from video if we could backfill someone like Greg Maddux, a control master, or even someone who lived on the edges like Tom Glavine or Bob Tewksbury. That’s for another day, but getting to the 83 percent level is elite, as that means a pitcher is missing by only a small fraction on each pitch. As the sample increases, those numbers solidify and smooth, though the sample size needed for confidence is pretty small. If a guy is missing by more than normal in the first inning, this system could let you know you might want to get the bullpen warm early.

The video below shows you how this works, with a then-healthy Cole Ragans standing in as our positive and negative example:

(Video courtesy Infinite Sky.)

That red target is the intended target and you can see where the percentages lie as the pitch result moves out from that, with Ragan’s Command Index as the blue circle and the league average in orange. You can see what happens when a pitcher hits his spot and how far it goes when he doesn’t. Simplification, yes, but this is how Command Index is tracked.

While we’ve long been able to see the result of the pitch, new technologies have allowed us to measure things like velocity, movement, and spin. Now, Infinite Sky’s technologies allow them to measure command, which correlates highly to things like WHIP, WAR, and FIP, exactly as you’d want it to. On one of the charts the company shared with me, they plotted out all the Detroit Tigers pitchers Command Index stats. At the top right - the better part - is Tarik Skubal, well and above everyone else. At the bottom left, though still good, is Jackson Jobe, who struggled with command before succumbing to a sprained elbow. There’s a lot more validation I don’t have time to get into today, but I’ve seen a lot of these and it tracks. They process thousands of pitches every day, giving them a big database and training set to work from.

The crew at Infinite Sky not only demoed the system for me — impressive and I’ll have more details soon — but we realized with the trade deadline impending, they could give a unique view on some of the names we’re hearing and whether the Command Tracker might tell us anything about the rumored pitchers. I’ll break them down and explain some of what the Infinite Sky results mean for teams that might be thinking about bringing them on.

STARTERS

Let’s start with a trio of teammates:

It’s no secret that Peter Bendix and the Marlins have a couple key assets on the pitching market. Sandy Alcantara has a rough ERA as he gets through the start of his return from Tommy John, while Edward Cabrera has had injury problems of his own in the past, but is on a solid run through July that’s increased the scouts monitoring him. Infinite Sky has watched both closely through their video lens.

On their terms, both are good. Of pitchers across the league that Infinite Sky has 100 pitches or more on, Alcantara has an excellent Command Index of 82.9 - absolutely elite, as you’ll see - with Cabrera just behind at 81.7. Alcantara looks more elite when adjusted for velocity, putting him in the 93d percentile among monitored pitchers. Cabrera is slightly better when adjusting for his breaking pitch, which has always been plus. Cabrera shoots up into the top fifth of pitchers, which indicates not only solid command, but perhaps some change to his five-pitch mix could increase his success. That’s easy enough for a new team to do (or for the Marlins to adjust if they keep him.)

The D-Backs are the pivot point of trade season, dealing away Josh Naylor and on the cusp with Eugenio Suarez. They also have two solid pitchers people will remember from their World Series run a couple seasons ago. Brent Strom’s work with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly put a short-handed rotation into the series, but with injuries around these two, they could make another playoff run somewhere else while the D-Backs restock.

Both have solid numbers on the Command Index. Kelly is slightly higher, in the 76th percentile compared to Gallen’s 72d. The difference is small in absolute terms so both recent and longer term injury history might be the real differentiator.

(Another secret? A team might do better to go after Brandon Pfaadt, who’s actually better than both. He’s a top 20 pitcher overall, though his youth, usage, and contract would cause the cost in trade to be tough to match for his results.)

However, if Infinite Sky’s system could jump up and down, waving and pointing, this next pair of pitchers would be what it is pointing to. The Twins are reportedly taking calls on almost everyone, including Carlos Correa who could go back to Houston in a stunner, but someone should discuss Joe Ryan and Griffin Jax. These two starters rank above either of the previous pair. (Yes, burying the lede is very on brand for me.)

Jax isn’t highly thought of outside of scouting circles and his numbers for the Twins don’t look great outside of his K rate. However, his command index is big, especially for his breaking ball. There’s a lot of teams looking for exactly this kind of pitcher to solidify their pen, but BABIP and HR luck might make them look past Jax. It’s an elite breaking ball command that’s made him a hidden gem for two seasons now.

Now, here’s the one everyone’s going to wish they’d read twice.

Tarik Skubal has been the model for what Infinite Sky calls “elite” command. His index sits at 84.2, the top of their leaderboard and, not coincidentally, at the top of the sport right now. Skubal throws hard, misses small, and has the kind of repeatable precision that turns a solid arm into a true ace.

Right behind him, closer than anyone expected? Joe Ryan. He’s at 83.5. That’s not just good. That’s Skubal good. In a world that only looks at velocity and ERA, he looks like a solid middle-rotation guy. Through Infinite Sky’s lens, he looks like someone ready to take the exact same leap Skubal did a year ago.

(Before you yell, no, this doesn’t mean Ryan is Skubal. It means one specific skill, command, is right there with him. When you can put a ball exactly where you want 83.5 percent of the time, a lot of other numbers start to change with the right team around you.)

He’s not untouchable. If Joe Ryan moves, this could be the trade that shifts a pennant race. A new team that adds a tick of velo and lets him live where he already lives on the edges? Infinite Sky’s model thinks that’s how you build an ace.

Our first singleton is also a great target, though saying “Mackenzie Gore is good” is hardly deep insight. Just how good? In light of Skubal and Ryan’s 1-2 numbers, Gore is slightly back at 81.3. It’s certainly enough to put him in that company and again, in a new context, his wins might jump due to both his strikeout stuff and his Command Index. This is more confirmation than sleeper, but some team is going to have to clear the cupboard for Gore; Infinite Sky is saying it might just be worth doing so.

There’s some negatives as well. Three guys that Infinite Sky throws flags on include two almost sure to move: Mitch Keller and Ryan Helsley. Keller’s Command Index doesn’t compare to any of the other pitchers and rates as … let’s say it, bad. He’s in the 29th percentile and I’m sorry Mr. Cherington, he’s not someone who’s likely to be anything more than a solid inning-eater. There’s certainly value in that for the modern game, but a new team context isn’t going to change much besides a win total. Good for root, bad for real baseball. (Late rumors are that the Pirates have backed off on deals. Whether that’s a function of return or whether the Pirates misjudged Keller’s value remains to be seen, especially in context.)

Helsley is much the same. Yes, he throws very hard, but aside from the very risks of that, his command isn’t good. Throwing that hard in no particular direction, not being able to hit the intended target is a good way to leave a 100 mph pitch up to be deposited 400 feet away. He’s throwing far more sliders in the past two seasons, but adjusted for his breaking ball, Helsley isn’t just bad, he’s in the 5th percentile. I’m sure there’s a reason he’s done so and it isn’t a loss of velocity, which has been relatively consistent over the past four seasons. In other words, acquire at your own risk.

[Helsley was dealt after the initial draft, dealt to the Mets in return for three prospects.]

RELIEVERS

On the reliever side of the equation, three more to be discussed are Pete Fairbanks, Robert Suarez, and Dave Bednar. (I’d love to hear Bob Nutting explain trading away a gold glove 3B and a closer to Paul Skenes, wouldn’t you?) All have positive Command Index numbers, especially adjusting for their breaking stuff. Fairbanks’ injury history makes it harder to deal for him, but his Command Index is only slightly lower than the other two.

Surprisingly, the lesser heralded Suarez has the best numbers and his two healthy seasons have shown why he was such a scouting win for the Padres. If they flip him into something for the future, someone’s going to get a solid high-leverage reliever, but I’m sure AJ Preller will have a shiny gold price tag on him. No knock on Bednar, whose numbers are solid and who may come at a knock-down price from the Pirates. Comparing any of these to Helsley, who has only velocity and the shiny closer tag to recommend him, is going to be an interesting point of comparison if any of these are dealt and the cost thereof.

Tyler Rogers just got dealt to the Mets and the return was solid, Jose Butto plus two prospects (#10 and #12, per MLB). Rogers has always been noticed more for his delivery than anything else, but his Command Index isn’t bad. He’s at 78.5, which is a notch below what you see above.

[As I finalize this, Jhoan Duran just got dealt to the Phillies. I don’t have the Command Index numbers on him, but the return was sizable, including Mick Abel, a top young pitching prospect that’s succeeded in a very good rotation in spot duty.]

A COUPLE SLEEPERS

Let me throw in two more guys, both of whom rank in Infinite Sky’s top 20 of all pitchers but aren’t getting a lot of trade talk. Antonio Senzatela is back from elbow reconstruction like Alcantara, but buried in Denver, he doesn’t get nearly as much notice nor has he had Alcantara’s past successes. However, this season he ranks as the #12 pitcher overall, in between Jesus Luzardo and Mason Miller. Luzardo and Senzatela seem very much of a type and perhaps like Luzardo, Senzatela would explode in a better situation.

The second is Camilo Doval. The former closer has been up and down over the past couple seasons in San Francisco while jumping in and out of the role based on whether he or Ryan Miller is hot at the time. It’s not the best way to manage a pen, but despite being thought of as an inconsistent reliever, Infinite Sky has him 14th, just behind Mason Miller and giving an idea of an upside. While Mason Miller’s fastball solves a lot of issues, his combination of command and velocity is what makes him elite. Doval might not be that, but the price paid might be higher while the injury risk is lower. (They did just deal Rogers, so maybe the Giants are keeping Doval instead.)

IN CONCLUSION (FOR NOW)

As I said, I’ll have a lot more on Infinite Sky and their system soon. You’re right to question the validity of any new technology, but inside baseball, teams are already using this system and I’m curious to see whether those teams make moves that might be unexpected without access to this data. I wanted to give you this look at the deadline through a new data sources eyes, so I’ll leave the detailed explanations for another day, very soon.

Maybe the market isn’t about throwing 100 anymore. Everyone does that and it’s baked in. We’re not selling jeans, we’re selling heat. Maybe now that we can measure it, it’s about never missing. Infinite Sky’s Command Tracker isn’t a gimmick. It’s the first real window we’ve had into intent.

The teams with access to this are already looking past the velocity readings on the scoreboard. They’re looking at who puts a ball exactly where they wanted, over and over, until hitters can’t breathe. You can see it with Skubal. You can see it with Ryan. You can even see it in a hidden gem like Griffin Jax, a guy no one outside of a front office is even talking about.

When the dust settles this week, the winners aren’t going to be the ones who paid the most. They’ll be the ones who figured out that control of the strike zone starts with control of yourself. That’s what Infinite Sky is showing. For the first time at a deadline, some teams are going to act like they believe it.