UTK Special 7/23/20

Risky Players, Risky World plus predictions

The whole idea of risk has been turned on its head since February. Saying this player is risky or that player is risky at the same time we have an equivalent amount of dead bodies to Syracuse, New York feels like the height of folly. So does playing baseball, but I won’t apologize at the excitement I’m feeling, maybe the most in a while. Opening Day is new and different and I really have no idea what is about to happen.

I was speaking to a team official last night and he summed it up, almost like a country song. “This feels like getting back with an ex,” he said. “It’s probably not a good idea, but it’s a rush.”

If we pretend baseball is more or less normal, there’s still a normal amount of injury risk out there. As I’ve detailed here throughout the pause, teams did an amazing job of keeping players ready. The high burst, soft-tissue injuries we’re seeing were predictable in number, if not in location, and even those are on the low end of expectations. It’s small comfort if your team’s star player has a bad back or a strained hamstring, but like politics, injuries are local.

This also isn’t a sprint. It’s 60 games (we hope) instead of 162. That means workload is less, but so is recovery time. A bad game is like a bad week and a five game slump is like a bad month. Those are part of baseball, so they will happen, but they’ll be amplified by the length of the season.

On the other side of this, the expanded playoffs are going to be a factor. If more than half of teams are going to be in the eventual bracket, especially if that first round is a three-game series, then fighting for playoff position isn’t going to be as important. This happens every year in the NBA. Home court advantage is nice, but not huge.

With a compressed schedule comes compressed standings. Most people inside and outside the game think we’ll see about a 12-14 game range; Clay Davenport projects that the Yankees and Dodgers will win 36, while Baltimore will tank their way to 22. That means every game will count more and make something like WAR almost unusable. Losing Mike Trout would be worth far more than the three wins he’s projected at.

So who are the risky players? History tells us that pitchers hit the DL at about a 50/50 rate in any three year period. Almost a third of pitchers today have had Tommy John surgery, with more and more of them on their second or third, likely having it earlier in their careers.

Here’s five players (or groups of players) that stand out to me:

CLAYTON KERSHAW: There’s no question that Kershaw’s back is all that’s holding him back. It’s been a focus for Ron Porterfield and Kershaw over the past seasons and they’ve done a good job of keeping him at a high level. In a shortened season, there’s less room for error and I think we could see Kershaw miss a start or two to give him some extra rest, or to calm down a flareup before it gets too bad. The Dodgers depth will help in that sense, but makes it easy to cost him some starts and innings.

MAX SCHERZER: As much as I want to say “don’t pay attention to Summer Camp numbers,” Scherzer was awful in Summer Camp. He gave up bombs, players talk about the ball coming out of his hand differently, and the sheer volume of pitching he’s done over the last few years usually has some kind of hangover. At 35, he’s going too either have to make a Clemens/Verlander kind of change to his pitching or he’s going to decline.

AARON JUDGE: An MLB trainer made an interesting comp to me a couple weeks ago and it sticks with me. He said that Judge’s rib/shoulder/neck issue reminded him of Prince Fielder, where it seemed odd and minor, until he was having a press conference to retire. I’m not ready to say that Judge’s situation is the same, but the mystery of it does remind me that Judge could end up right back where he was last year or this spring as easily as he could hit 15 homers this season.

HYUN-JIN RYU: The former Dodger has had some injury issues over the years, so being on the road all season won’t help. His issue has largely been one of recovery, with minor sounding issues costing him start after start. Some of that was that the Dodgers clinched so early last year that September didn’t matter, but Ryu’s had this pattern. He followed his 190 inning debut season with 150 and his 182 last season makes me think he might have a similar drop-off. In 2020, that could means six starts and 40 innings, which would sink the Jays and a lot of fantasy teams.

THE A’s ROTATION: David Forst has always had to find pitching on the cheap. He’s drafted a lot of it, they’ve scouted a lot of it, and as far as talent, they have it. AJ Puk’s injury reminds us that one of the ways the A’s find this talent is to accept risk and hope that Nick Paparesta’s medical staff can hold them together. With a lack of recovery time and a real lack of depth, this whole season for the A’s hinges on not losing any of their top talent.

***

I’m really, really bad at predictions, to the point I barely do them. In this crazy season, why not?

WORLD SERIES CHAMP: Los Angeles Dodgers

Depth is going to be everything and no one has more than the Dodgers right now. Rich teams like the Dodgers and Yankees should be able to deal with any injuries, even ones to key players over short periods. If the Dodgers can keep their top three pitchers - Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and closer Kenley Jansen - healthy, they should dominate an improved NL West.

AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

In a quirky year, a guy who could go supernova for a week might end up winning the Triple Crown. Who’s more likely to do that than Guerrero, who’s already a superstar and has a solid lineup around him, wherever they land. Playing on the road all season will add a degree of difficulty that the writers like.

NL MVP: Bryce Harper

Same logic and Harper’s more likely than anyone in the NL to have that same kind of “get hot” with an improved lineup around him. One coach I spoke with said this spring that Harper looked much more comfortable in Philly and that it would reflect in his performance. That’s about as intangible as it gets, but I like Harper to up his batting average and lead the league in homers.

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander

If healthy, Verlander is as dominant as he’s ever been. He’ll get 11 or 12 starts this season and he could put up ridiculous strikeout numbers on a rate basis. Verlander’s eventual Cooperstown plaque should have Brent Strom in the background of it, but this partnership relies on Verlander executing and he does, over and over. I hate the “once in a lifetime” tag because Verlander is Roger Clemens. My crazy prediction is that Verlander gets 100 strikeouts this season.

NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler

Buehler and Kershaw could end up 1-2 in voting or split the vote, opening things up for someone else. This modern day Koufax-Drysdale combo should push the Dodgers towards the World Series that will up the team’s value even more, but it’s Buehler that’s going to be the one you want going forward. Again, his strikeout totals could look ridiculous in the limited starts, but he also has a chance to put up low hit and rate totals as well.

A reminder — due to the way the backend payment system works, I’m not turning on subscriptions until August 1. At that point, Under The Knife will cost five dollars a month. It will be month to month and I hope to provide you multiples of value on that. Please tell a friend about this so that I can keep writing about injuries, sports medicine, and sports science.