UTK Special 7/22/22
The deGrom Saga plus Soto Offers
I’m making this one free, so let’s make a deal. Under The Knife is close to a subscriber milestone and while I never beg for subscribers or followers, it’d be nice to cross this one soon. How about you do me a solid and tell a friend to sign up, even if it’s for a free subscription? All you Mets fans should be telling your friends that for the best Jacob deGrom analysis, they should be reading this! Don’t keep all the good stuff to yourself! Thanks for reading.
For the better part of two years, two things have been true: Jacob deGrom has demonstrably been one of the best pitchers in baseball and Jacob deGrom has been injured three times, only pitching 160 innings in the last three seasons. That’s not only unusual, it’s absolutely unprecedented. The closest is Clayton Kershaw, another recent case, with a chronic back condition and a World Series ring from the same time period.
According to media reports, deGrom’s five inning sim game went as planned. I spoke to a Mets source who was not there, but said he was told that everything went as expected over the five 12-pitch innings. (It was structured that way intentionally, rather than as a true “simulation.”) There were some strikeouts, there were some hits, but overall, the plan held.
Now, the important stuff happens. The question was not whether deGrom could throw, but whether he can recover. He came up a bit sore after his last outing, necessitating the recent delay, so tomorrow and the next day will be key to see if a normal post-game routine is enough to keep him on track for his next start, which could well be for the big club. I’m told that the plan was to have deGrom do his normal post-start routine with no additional interventions. If that happened and if deGrom comes in without soreness, able to do his between start work, it’s hard to say he shouldn’t be starting.
I won’t go into too much detail here because it’s very technical but the shift from bony healing to muscle soreness is a red flag to me. We know that from deGrom’s injuries over the past couple seasons, he’s not dealing with the forces, to the point that his scapula - a big, thick bone - started to break. That’s odd to start with, but indicates that big forces were being transferred from the tendons to the bone. Tendons attach to muscle, so the Mets should know what muscles are overloading, but I’m honestly not sure if they do. I’d love for one of the beats to ask, or for the Mets to show us how all that hedge fund brainpower is working on this problem.
There’s still absolutely no certainty of anything with deGrom. He’s got an opt-out which he’s said consistently that he’ll use. If he’s healthy through the end of the year and pitches the Mets deep into the playoffs, he’s going to get flat out paid, regardless of the risk. If not, he’s still going to be a guy who the right team will sign. Imagine the Rays on a $25m one-year deal (and that they haven’t completely lost their injury rebuild mojo), which is the kind of deal and talent they should be looking for. That’s probably the floor.
For the Mets, there’s not much downside either. If he’s healthy, he makes them a better team. If he’s healthy but breaks down, well, they get what they can out of him and at worst, they’re on the hook for just another year. At age-34, deGrom isn’t going to get a long deal, but he’s probably looking over at Max Scherzer and thinking he could put that kind of stack in his locker. All he has to do is what he hasn’t done so far this year: pitch well, and often.
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Bob Nightengale gets the scoop on who’s already talking to the Nationals about Juan Soto:
Interesting list and one that makes me pause. I’d already said on KTGR Tuesday that I didn’t see the Cardinals in this one, while I said the Yankees and Mets would have to be creative to get it done on a podcast. I’d add more teams to this mix and if a team didn’t at least check in and see if the Nats had gone full Arenado on a deal, they’re failing.
One key here is whether any of these possible landing spots will insist on a window ahead of a deal to see if they can get something done. All of these teams will have an idea of what it takes - Scott Boras isn’t being shy suddenly - but there could be a bit of an issue if Soto has a preference. There’s been indications he didn’t want to go West Coast, but a source tells me it’s not a strong preference.
It could well be that the Nats will get bent here, with Soto saying that he’s not willing to sign. That puts them in the position of trading him for far less, or even saying they’d rather hold onto him.
There’s already a strong group of free agents coming in the offseason, with Aaron Judge and Trea Turner at the top, plus the aforementioned . A team will have to factor in if they have an owner willing to pay for two big-dollar stars, or even one. The Dodgers are in a unique position, with the Bauer money coming open in a couple years, if not sooner, as well as Clayton Kershaw likely to retire or take a smaller deal. However, they’re less likely to get two, though keeping Turner and hoping the pitching stays healthy seems the ‘23 plan.
That leaves the Giants in pole position. Assuming Charles Johnson isn’t saving money for the 2024 election year, getting one of Judge or Soto puts the team on par with the Dodgers, rather than relying on front office magic to find players and spin them into gold. If you’re thinking they try for Soto and then have Judge as the off-season backup, you’re on the right track. (Remember as well, if Soto isn’t dealt this season, he will certainly be on the market next year, aside from the chance that the Nats new owner - which could be in place by then - decides Soto is exactly the kind of player she should be building around.)
I’ll be honest, I don’t know any minor league organization well enough to put together what would be a reasonable offer, nor what the Nats are hoping to get. If we look at the Scherzer/Turner deal from just a year ago, those didn’t come with a long term guarantee and, actually, the Dodgers might not have either next year.
The prospect of a Mariners deal - Julio Rodriguez and Juan Soto in the same outfield? - is pretty stunning, but is it doable? Do we know what this ownership group is willing to do? The same is true for the Padres, who would likely have to start with Mackenzie Gore and CJ Abrams and add to it, but that kind of talent in one place is pretty special to think about.
There’s not a team in baseball that doesn’t get better with Juan Soto. Even with a basket of prospects going the other way, even if it’s a modern Mark Teixeira deal, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where a Juan Soto deal, at his remaining two plus years of control/contract, would be bad for a team. The playoffs may be a longer road and likely more random, but talent makes winning more likely and there’s few in the game with similar talent or durability.
[Note: I clarified the last paragraph after it was sent out since Soto is not a free agent until after the ‘24 season.]
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I’m no conspiracy theorist, but look at this tweet:
Rob Manfred is lying, the MLB ownership of the ball’s manufacturer is problematic, and water is wet. But it’s worse than that. Let’s say there is a live ball and a dead ball. Let’s even suggest there’s a third ball, which we don’t know, but there’s some suggestion that the pink ball used during the Home Run Derby contributed to the distances.
Look, juiced HRD balls would be the smartest thing MLB has done in a while. Use pre-BBCOR aluminum bats for all I care. It’s a show and I want to see a ball land in Calabasas. But let’s say those balls end up in a game. Let’s say they end up in a Yankees game, where Aaron Judge is chasing 61 right now. I doubt owners or the league would go out of their way to run up Judge’s free agent bill, but they could use the help when it comes to TV ratings. A home run chase helped save baseball once before and these people aren’t that creative when it comes to solutions.
The uneven distribution of the balls is a massive problem and one I’m not even sure MLB is conscious of. They’re just incompetent enough to screw this up, but the evidence for a third ball is enough for me to say “bet the over.” I think the run scoring environment is going to spike, not because of the weather, but because of the ball. If it drops in with all the heat around the country, it’s convenient cover,
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Friend of UTK Jim Rushford was a long time minor leaguer who got his shot after grinding in the independent leagues, even working as a pizza delivery guy at a restaurant called Milo’s. This week, his son, named Milo after the restaurant, was drafted by the Royals and signed. I can’t tell you how excited I am for Milo and his family. I’m thinking road trip to … the Columbia Fireflies next season? Dang, I already want this hat!