UTK Special 7/20/22
Eyes Forward, Mirrors Fixed
The term “eyes forward, mirrors fixed” comes from IndyCar racing. I’ve heard multiple versions of the truism, but Robin Miller said that he heard it from Rick Mears, so that’s where I’ll credit it. It simply means that a driver should always be looking forward, deciding where a 200 mph car should be in relation to the track and other cars, but he should also have the mirrors there for when he needs to look back and see what’s back there. MLB teams need to do the same.
At the All Star break, which if not halfway is at least a natural breakpoint to take a glance at the season, we can look both forward and back, hopefully learning from each. A simple ‘break to break, year over year’ analysis - which I’ve seen all week - is not a good one. The break is timed different, so why do it? This is an apple, this is an orange.
Using the invaluable tools that Derek Rhoads has created at Baseball Prospectus, we learn that the teams with the most injuries aren’t who we normally see. The Reds have missed nearly 1400 days here at the break, with the Cubs, Rays, and Nats. Both the Reds and Rays are regularly near the top of rankings rather than down here at the bottom. The Rays have overcome this, but are far off their expected pace, largely because of their injury issues. I’d also say that the Rays haven’t returned as many of their expected pitchers, while losing more. Something’s changed there and that team has to figure it out to hang in the toughest division in baseball.
On the opposite side, it’s more surprises. Texas, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Houston are on top of the rankings. While Cleveland is regularly there, Houston’s been down due to Tommy Johns over the past few. It was a high risk, high reward strategy that has largely worked. I’m sure the medical staff will gladly take the ‘blame’ for Verlander on either side of his missed time.
Texas is the more interesting case. Jamie Reed and his staff have long been innovative and well thought of, but their results have been mixed. They were usually middle of the pack during their early-00 run, accepting some risk and losing some guys for longer periods. Over the past five years, pitching injuries have crushed them at the same time they were investing more and more, as well as trying some innovative programs. The results didn’t come immediately, but are we seeing investment start to pay off, or does having to pay for pitchers like Jon Gray and Dane Dunning to soak up innings have more value than cost?
Most of the investment is coming with young pitchers and the results there have been bad. Their de-loading experiment failed, but the team didn’t give up on innovation. They have biomechanical data, a lot of behind the scenes sports science, and some very good people, plus the support of the front office. The question now is whether the team can begin pushing prospects to the bigs and making them pitchers.
The key case here is not Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker, but Owen White. The 2018 draftee was in a run of 2019 Tommy Johns, part of that de-load class. Between the pandemic and rehab, White didn’t make his in-game debut until 2021, when he immediately got hurt again. It was a hand issue, not related, just bad luck. Now 22, he jumped to Double-A mid-season and has seemingly found things again. It’s hard to imagine that he’d be far ahead of where he is now absent the surgery, but it’s possible he’d be knocking at the door last year at age-21 and perhaps a solid opening day rotation guy. If that’s the case next year, it’s a big win for the Rangers development and something that we can use as a benchmark for the next few guys, especially if that’s talent like Brock Porter.
Looking around the league, just the case of Chris Sale would make one think that the Red Sox are at the bottom but they’re not. Despite recent pitching issues, the team has only lost 568 games. If you tossed a blanket over 600 games lost, you’d cover a lot of teams, including the Yankees, Brewers, Giants, and Mets, all contenders. The Dodgers and Padres are down over 800, but much of that is accepted risk or carryover Tommy John rehabs.
Assuming that the Reds don’t continue careening towards 2000+ days lost, there’s a seeming compression to this. No team is “too low” and no team (aside from the Reds) is “too high.” That implies that there’s some right number, but that right number is merely theoretical and is practically unknowable. Keeping things under average, or improving year over year with similar personnel is a better goal, and reachable.
One thing many always point out is that days lost and dollars lost (not illustrated above) don’t correlate well to wins and losses. Obviously, losing players, especially stars, is bad. The case of the Padres - no Fernando Tatis Jr yet, plus a number of TJ carryovers - has added days, yet they’re in a competitive position. Some of that is depth, some of that is “pick up” like Manny Machado having a career year, and some is simple luck. The Dodgers and Yankees have regularly taken on injury risk with older, talented players, so it’s no surprise that they often get hit with big injury days. However, because it’s known, even expected, the roster usually has enough to get past it and remain competitive. However, with one World Series between them, maybe being a bit better at avoiding buying injuries would help both.
I’m often asked why baseball hasn’t gotten better at managing injuries in the twenty years I’ve been doing this. I think the answer is that they have. Were it not for the advances and the hard work of medical staffs, we wouldn’t be essentially standing in place. The increasing velocities and forces have increased pitching injuries, but they’ve also grown more at lower ends, where it doesn’t count against a medical staff and doesn’t seem to count much against a player either.
If we see a steadying of things - no Chapmanesque sudden jump in velocity followed by a Bannisteresque break for everyone else - then the incidence of 100+ guys shouldn’t go up significantly. It’s the guys who used to be 88 that are now mid-90s and break there are more the issue. If 90 is the floor now, when will it be 95, and will we see more breakage?
Moreover, if the answer to velocity is bigger swings and longer homers, do we start to see more back and shoulder issues for those players, or does the sheer bulk of a player like Giancarlo Stanton or Kyle Schwarber hold them together? We’re more likely to see baseball look like the PGA in the last decade - when Tiger Woods looked like an athlete, everyone else did soon and the next generation was a bunch of Tigers. I think the same will be true in baseball, where we see more guys that look like Pete Alonso and live in the gym and the cage than guys like Rowdy Tellez or Daniel Vogelbach. I’m not sure if that’s good for baseball.
If there’s any one thing I think we’ll see in the second half, it’s a steadying of leg injuries. We should see them come down, unless a team is simply doing the wrong things to maintain players, so there could be some outliers. If there’s any one thing I think we’ll see in the next decade, it’s that paying minor leaguers or at least making their lives easier will allow them to develop more and more quickly, which would also be good for baseball.
After listening to Rob Manfred’s presser today, I think we need a lot more questions about what’s good for baseball and what could make it better.
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One late round draft note: Jurrangelo Cijntje, the Florida high schooler that not only throws with both arms, but is over 90 from each side, was drafted in the 16th round by Milwaukee. He’s likely to go to Mississippi State, but he’s a very interesting guy and with draft-and-follow back in place, this is the kind of guy it was brought back for.
Unfortunately for the Brewers, we’ll have to watch Cijntje in college, it appears:
