UTK Special 7/12/23

2023 Midseason Trends and Notes

2023 has not been a good year for injuries. In 2022, everything was about the compressed spring training. In 2021, it was COVID. In 2020, it was COVID. 2023 was supposed to be the year where things went back to normal, where off-seasons were regular, where teams got serious about health … and the results aren’t good. I won’t short-term this, though. I know of several teams that have made big changes, either in sports medicine or sports science (or both) that won’t pay off for a few years. The addition of biomechanical data from Hawkeye is still being integrated.

But the results are bad. Really bad. Depressingly bad.

Midseason data isn’t as good as full-season data, but we’re in an area where we can see some trends, and yes, I’m blaming the pitch clock for 2023. It seems to be affecting hitters as much as pitchers, and increased steals mean increased forces on the body. You go slide a bunch of times and see how beat up you get. You take swings without being able to take a deep breath. You throw a pitch at max effort every fifteen seconds, with shorter half-inning breaks.

Everything is faster and the training was mixed. Part of this is that there wasn’t a big uptick in injuries when the pitch clock was tested at lower levels. I’m still slightly dubious of this because it’s harder to track minor league injuries. Seeing guys skipped is functionally the same as the 7-day IL.

Looking at the data, we see that shoulder injuries are way up, exceeding last year’s totals by the ASB. The same is almost true for elbows, with 48 surgeries so far compared to 49 all of last season. I saw one citation that Tommy John surgeries are down. True, but that can be almost completely accounted for by InternalBrace repairs and an increase in the non-surgical success rate. That latter part is especially interesting to me and I don’t have a good working theory on why that’s the case. My guess would be earlier diagnosis and better diagnostic tools, like ultrasound, being regularly available. I need to do a more team-by-team look to see if teams I know focus on this are getting those results over ones I know are behind.

We also see an increase in head injuries. While that one’s not on the pitch clock, MLB hasn’t figured out how to better protect pitchers and far too many of them aren’t taking charge of the issue themselves. Two skull fractures is more than we’ve had in the past five years and two too many.

Are there any good spots? Not really. Foot injuries are down, but those tend to be fractures. That data doesn’t help the Yankees, as Aaron Judge remains out with his turf toe.

At the start of the season, I said … somewhere, but I know I said it … that what I’d be watching in regards to the pitch clock is not arm injuries, but fatigue injuries to the legs. We’ve certainly seen that, with a twenty percent uptick in hamstring and quad injuries year over year. Those are down in comparison to 2021, but that’s full season data and I think we could be headed to that number, which was 119 and cost over 3,000 games.

More worrisome is the huge increase in oblique strains among both pitchers and hitters. Baseball is an asymmetrical game, but a 53 percent increase before the year is even out is massive. Again, there’s very little idea among people I speak with as to why, but working on asymmetries is one of the key focuses for Gary McCoy, who got injuries down to zero over a full baseball season. I’m curious to break this down on a team level and for switch hitters, who should have a slight advantage here.

Looking at team totals, there’s no surprise that the Dodgers and Yankees are on the bottom, already losing better than 1,000 games each. Some of this is Tommy John losses, but in the Yankees case, they’ve had a broad run of extended injuries, such as Judge, that can’t be accounted for like Carlos Rodon, who missed half the season with arm and back issues.

On the plus side, there’s again no surprise to see the Guardians and Orioles on top. Those teams have long had a focus on prevention and rehab, with Lonnie Soloff and Brian Ebel getting a tip of the cap for hard work and consistent results.

There’s a bunch of teams in a cluster between 500 and 675 games lost, then another from 800 to 900. Stemming losses there among the playoff contenders in both tiers could be a deciding factor in what looks like it could be a close race for playoff slots.

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With the halfway point comes the switch to the trade deadline, now hardwired to July 31 in a change I fully support. No one understood the waiver and non-waiver differences. This works, from a media standpoint, a fan standpoint, and a team standpoint. What we haven’t seen are many early deals. Aroldis Chapman was a nice flip, but the Royals didn’t make out too much on that deal.

The big name is Shohei Ohtani, but he may not hit the market and if he does, it’s a very small market. Beyond that, there’s discussion of Juan Soto, but he’s at his lowest value and again, the buying market will be exceptionally small. The Dodgers need pitching more than Soto and I can’t see the Padres selling in division. I can’t see the Orioles ponying up, though he’d be a good fit there.

As far as pitching, both common sense and people inside the game tells me there’s just not any available. The few teams that are largely out of it don’t want to admit it to the last second, even with assets like Zack Greinke, Paul Blackburn, and Jack Flaherty. Even bottom of the table teams have to have enough innings and absent a return that’s ready - which likely makes it non-ideal - they do have to put a team out there.

(Someone suggested to me recently that teams should just find some live arms - either independent guys or UDFAs with a plus pitch - but the 40-man rules make that really tough. I don’t think it would work either, as fans might rebel against a full scale tank job.)

If you want a wacky scenario, one NL AGM floated a concept. “I’m not saying anyone is pitching this,” they said, “but the Pirates could sell [David] Bednar and slot in Paul Skenes without missing a beat. I don’t think they will, but they could.” It would certainly be a way for Skenes to have his innings managed, but let’s hope the Pirates at the very least look at the workload data he had at LSU, recognize that he’s been down almost a month (I don’t know how much or if he’s throwing), and that short max-effort outings isn’t the best way to keep him healthy. I’m not saying it can’t work, but the management might be more complex than using him as a starter. Granted, it would be better than starting him in Bradenton, as I’m hearing will happen.

The team people are watching is the White Sox. They have several solid pitchers, have been a disappointing team - yes, Pedro Grifol might be one and done - but they’re also only 8 games out in a weak division. The White Sox have talent and pitching and it wouldn’t take much of a run to get right back into playoff contention. The question is whether there’s a ton of value there, or whether Rick Hahn would be better off setting up this team for 2024 rather than losing in the wild card game in 2023. My guess is he’ll trade one, likely Lance Lynn or Michael Kopech.

On the buyer side, everyone is looking at the Reds. They’re young, exciting, and have a glaring need for pitching. They also have a number of good prospects in the minors, led by Noelvi Marte, a SS acquired from Seattle in last year’s Luis Castillo deal. All reports are very good and he was just pushed to Triple-A Louisville, but with Elly De La Cruz and Matt McClain, there’s nowhere for him to go (save 2B, which is a different issue.) Marte could get a good pitcher back, especially if the Reds take on salary and they seem to match up well with the White Sox (see above). Still need two to tango, but the bandoneon seems to be warming up.

I don’t expect the trade market to be big this year. I’ve said that before and been wrong, but I believe we’ll see minimal action or big deals. Sure, a handful will move, but I doubt we’ll see full sell-offs from any teams and instead, see GMs acting as snipers, looking for desperation and “I won the trade” returns.

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Speaking of deals, what’s the story with the Washington Nationals? The Lerner family has had them on the block for a while and the deal to clean up the MASN mess is finally done. A lot thought that would be the trigger for a deal, but a source tells me that the real issue is price. As with Arte Moreno, the Lerners have a price in mind and no one’s come close. The best offer had a lot of issues, largely a key owner that was going to have a hard time clearing the vetting, but there’s no rush to sell. The team isn’t losing money and none of the Lerners are applying for food stamps. A couple billion from a sale will be nice, but not life changing.

There’s some discussion of whether waiting for the next winning cycle will help the value, or whether the Lerners are waiting for the impending changes the owners expect to make in ownership rules. (Read: Gulf money and hedge funds in “silent” fractional ownership. Learn the term “RAK.”) Neither appears to be the case, or at least the deciding factor. Essentially, the Nats have a high “buy it now” button and no one’s pushed it yet.

Other ownership? No one’s openly selling. There’s always rumblings about one or two teams, the dimming hope that John Fisher will sell, and a couple teams that are looking for “succession sales” like what the Guardians put together. The Diamondbacks ownership group seems to be having fun again - winning will do that - but the push for a new stadium might stir that pot again sooner rather than later.

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Brian Cashman fired someone midseason for the first time. Dillon Lawson isn’t to blame for all the Yankees hitting problems, but the one good hitter there now only works with his own guy. That put Lawson on an island, though replacing him with Sean Casey is an interesting move. Casey’s well liked and knows how to hit, but no one knows if he knows how to coach. However, if this is an indication, it’s positive to me:

I think the rumblings that Brian Cashman may leave the Yankees are starting to pick up as well. He’s been there a long time and could basically put himself out to stud (so to speak) at his Kentucky horse farm, a move most GMs don’t get to make. In house replacements are there, but no one knows what the Yankees braintrust, specifically Hal Steinbrenner, will do with that kind of hire, because he’s never made one. I’m still hardwired to have “stability” and “Yankees” never go in the same sentence, but it’s simply not true over the course of (omg) the current century.

Inside, Michael Fishman, Damon Oppenheimer, and Tim Naehring should all get consideration, but coming from outside, there’s almost no one who seems likely and ready. Cashman’s path isn’t usual, but the Yankees have usually had someone with pinstriped DNA in charge. First person that says Derek Jeter gets Road Housed. If you want to read in the Boone/Casey connections, that might mean Naehring might have a bit of juice right now.

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The Home Run Derby is a good event. I will say once again, it could be great. In the year of the pitch clock, it’s too long. 70 homers? 30 in a round? The easy answer is to give every player 10 homers and the best distance wins. How close could someone get to a mile? Give a bonus for the longest overall and some ridiculous 500 foot bonus, or a third deck bonus. When you ask people about the greatest memories of HRDs, it’s seldom the winner. Josh Hamilton in Yankee Stadium is memorable, but tell me who won that night.

Also, I agree with Ken Rosenthal. There should be a slot for a player like Elly De La Cruz. Leave one slot in each league open for a rookie-eligible player and make that player explode. I’ll go one more and say one player from the Futures Game should come up. Grow the game from the seeds.