UTK Special 6/12/24

What Do You Do With a Problem Like Pittsburgh?

Paul Skenes is special.

Let’s just stipulate that. If you want to go comps, you get Stephen Strasburg, who lit the league on fire, then vanished for a year shortly after his arrival while he healed up from Tommy John. Let’s hope that’s not going to be the case here and there’s simply no evidence for it. Until there is.

The Pirates have been very careful with him. He barely pitched last year after a monstrous NCAA campaign, even with months of rest. He came into 2024 on strict pitch counts, work limits (not workload), and … ok here’s the issue: I admire Ben Cherington’s honesty in saying there’s no real plan because there’s no real recipe for keeping this kind of pitcher healthy.

Absent the nihilism of the statement, Cherington isn’t doing all he can do. Sports science? Maybe. Experts? Maybe, but there’s no evidence. Data? Some and the Pirates do have an underrated analytical staff, but at best, the Pirates are keeping it close to the vest and potentially are missing an entire known universe of best practices. Given the rarity of the asset - perhaps not “generational” but close - this would be the place to overspend, to overdo, and to show that someone in ownership actually cares about the product.

Skenes sells and Pittsburgh’s buying. What would have been a simple “come see the MVPs” sales pitch for a weeknight Dodgers game in June suddenly became the highlight game of the night with Skenes versus Shohei Ohtani. Hundred mile strikeout on three? Check. Monster homer to center? Check. The home team even won, proving that talent can beat a checkbook (and a lot of talent).

But where does it stop? Paul Skenes threw 27 1/3 innings over seven starts in Triple-A. He’s thrown 22 over four starts in the bigs. There’s an upper limit that people in Pittsburgh haven’t articulated and it’s probably a lower number than you’d expect. He threw 122 innings last year at LSU with a handful added on in the minors. He’s almost at 50 this year. Does he get 100 more? Less?

The problem for the Pirates is that they’re a bit like a bad magic trick right now. Skenes is over here and you’re watching him, with all the 100 mph pitches and NIL deal girlfriend, but he’s hardly the only young prospect pitcher that’s new to Pittsburgh.

Jared Jones is right there. No one lined up to see his starts in Indianapolis, but with his stuff, you might wonder why not. He’s a baseball lifer (Randy Flores is his uncle), comes from SoCal like Skenes, and throws almost as hard. He was drafted in the lost class of 2020, has gone one level a year like he was told, and should be in contention for Rookie of the Year, but would probably finish second on his own team.

Jones was not highly touted. I saw him pitch twice last year in Indianapolis and … no notes. He threw hard, but so many do, and he ended up just 4-5 in Indy. Something clicked this year and he’s been … well, the same 4-5 through his first 12 starts in Pittsburgh. The level change is not nothing. He threw 122 innings last season between two levels and this year, he’s just shy of 70. There was no long tenure of pitch-count showcases in Triple-A for Jones. He broke camp in the rotation.

They’re both right-handed, big bodied, hard throwing SoCal kids. Jones went from high school and Skenes went to college, but if the paths are different, the destination is the same. Maybe a couple months off, but no one’s going to make a case from that. They were born six months apart, a few miles apart, one just before this and one just after:

That’s right, Jones was two months old when Bush made his famous first pitch and Luis Gonzalez walked it off in one of the most dramatic World Series ever. Skenes’s mother would have been two months pregnant. I feel winded just typing that.

My question is, if they’re so similar and similarly valuable, why is all the focus on the protective limitations placed on Skenes without any question of the same or similar for Jones?

If there’s any discernible difference between Skenes and Jones, aside from the mustache, it’s in how they’ve been deployed. Skenes has been famously protected, while Jones … wait, Jones has been as well, just without the fanfare. His pitch count and innings high came in the same game, going 96 pitches in seven innings against the Rockies at home in Pittsburgh. Jones has largely operated on five days rest, only going short in one outing, but never high. A source would not confirm there’s a strict limit in place for either, but “there’s a plan.”

Let’s go one further. This X post shows some of Skenes’ warm up routine. I’ve seen it while he was at Indy and it’s combination of exercises from Tom House, Driveline, and Randy Sullivan. I’m not sure who put it together or how long he’s been doing it - anyone see it at LSU? - but is anyone else on the Pirates doing something similar, or are they allowed to do their own things? Given their similarities, why wouldn’t you want Skenes and Jones on the same program?

Skenes was held back for his minor league starts, costing him and the Pirates some value with limited benefit, or at least unknown. While the Pirates came into the season not expecting to be in contention, they’re a game out of a Wild Card spot in a very down National League. With Skenes and Jones likely to be limited, how do they get through September, let alone October?

That remains a very open question. Skenes is widely thought to have an innings ceiling, some of which came in the minors, of no more than 150 innings. Jones likely wouldn’t be much higher than that. Innings is too simplistic a way to be thinking about it, but there’s no evidence that the Pirates are doing something more advanced here either. A watchful pitching coach. A solid medical staff. And hope.