UTK Special 5/22/20

Can't You Hear Me Knocking?

“105 and maybe a supplemental pick.”

There’s a sentence you never, ever thought you’d hear, even in a weird-as-hell world where we might have a five-round draft. Even on the cheap, you can’t miss at all with that few people coming in, so something like a 105 mph fastball would seem something that, even if it doesn’t pan out, sure seems safe.

Drafting 80s is safe.

For those not up on your scouting lingo, an “80” is as good as it gets. It’s not just the top of the scale, it should indicate a no-doubt starter for your team and potentially a Hall of Famer. Stephen Strasburg was an 80 fastball.

Is Luke Little an 80? At 102, yes. At 105, definitely yes. However, he’s far from the only high velocity fastball in this year’s draft. I asked a handful of scouts about Little and others and one blew me away with a quote:

“I’ve seen 18 guys at 99 or higher. Not all of that is in a game, but you get Flatground video or Driveline and it’s pretty solid. I can take that to the room.”

EIGHTEEN? I don’t know how many pitchers have ever been in the majors throwing a legit 100, but it’s probably not much more than 18. Not all these kids will make it, but if you throw 95 or more, you’re getting drafted and you’re going to get a shot. Probably a lot of shots.

So why is Little not at the top of the charts? I bet you could go back 20 years, all the way to Jon Peters, and find a kid, often from Texas or Oklahoma, who popped up his senior year and found velocity, and then a big check in early June.

Now, Peters wasn’t throwing plyo balls or connection clubs, but was he a legit 100 mph guy? I couldn’t find anyone who had actually scouted him, but I do remember talking with the late lamented Don “Coach” Welke about Peters as part of a discussion we were having about modern velocity. Peters and … Colt something, I think he was drafted by the Royals … were two that came up, along with Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, and some others.

The term “80” isn’t thrown around much. It’s hallowed. When Welke said it, you believed it. I wish I knew what he’d say about this kind of increase in velocity.

Yes, we know that most pitchers with this kind of velocity won’t hold up. We also know Tommy John surgery works. We know most pitchers will never sniff this kind of velocity. We know control and command are issues for Little and several others who have elite velocity. I won’t wade into the shark-invested “velocity or command” wars here, but the modern game is biased to velocity. Nook LaLoosh would get to the show faster these days.

In his latest mock draft, Jonathan Mayo - one of the best guys around - does not have Little in the first round. Neither does he have Justin Lange, though Lange was in an earlier one. Kiley McDaniel at ESPN has Little outside the comps, but does have Lange at 25. Both have Cole Wilcox (Georgia) and Bobby Miller (Louisville) in the 20s and both have documented 100mph pitches.

That’s four guys over 100 and they’ll be available in the back half of the draft. Teams could draft two, maybe three guys, with plus-plus fastballs, in a single shortened draft. (And how cool is it that you’re a click away from being able to see this kind of video.)

But, wait, there’s more. Without going through the whole list, imagine an organization like, say, the Reds who are focused on pitching development and lack top end starters. They could take five rounds worth of elite velocity guys and nothing but. In a shortened year with weird service rules, who’s to say you couldn’t use the best couple in the bullpen, throwing heat to add to some talent like Hunter Greene.

They won’t. But they could.

So could any team. In a short-draft year, anything is possible, but the game of baseball is drastically risk averse. But it wasn’t that long ago that 100 mph was as close to a sure thing as you could pick, even if it was a kid from the middle of Texas who suddenly found lightning in his arm.

Just imagine, all that lightning and you with a bottle.