UTK Special 2/9/24
Never More Wrong
“I am not a scout” was a familiar outcry of stat guys in the Oughts. We looked at the data, the scouts, the info that was available, but we - yes, me as well - didn’t want to be lumped in with those guys. Those were the enemies, in those days. Except I liked those guys. Meeting Jack Zduriencik and Larry Doughty, sitting at the hotel bar with them as they imparted wisdom were some foundational early memories in my baseball career. Some of my best memories are hanging out at games, or after them, with scouts. One of the top names in the field now hated scouts then, but I get it. We live, we learn, we change.
That said, I have never been more wrong as a scout — and I say this as a guy who sent in a LOT of notes about drafting Ricky Romero in 2005 - than I was about Jose Altuve. The first is simple bias. He’s short, yet hit for power. It didn’t seem sustainable and PECOTA backed me up. The second is that a player I liked - Rougned Odor - seemed like a better player. In comparison, Odor had better comps, but didn’t end up the better player, or even close. I’ll own that, and have. I went hard on it one day on Houston radio, and every day since, I’ve been wrong. Not that Odor was bad, but just that Altuve is a Houston legend and approaching Cooperstown territory.
With Altuve’s extension very likely to make him one of those “one team legend” guys, which shouldn’t have value but does, and a couple World Series rings on his resume, at worst he’s going to get a lot of consideration. But does he match up? If there’s anything Bill James has done in his career I buy into, it’s his Cooperstown Questions. James called it the Keltner List, but it hasn’t stuck.
(And yes, James deserves Cooperstown consideration himself. I’d have him in line after Frank Jobe and James Andrews, but I’m not arguing about any of them, especially if you get Gary Huckabay in that line as well.)
Here’s the list, from James’ 1995 book:
Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?
Was he the best player on his team?
Was he the best player in baseball (or in the league) at his position?
Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?
Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame? (Remember, this was written before the heart of the PED era)
Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
Do the players numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? (“Hall of Fame standards” are another James invention, the results are listed on every player page on Baseball Reference, you can see what the numbers are by which James calculates those “standards” by visiting Baseball Reference here)
Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame?
If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
Subscribers get more info on Altuve, the Clayton Kershaw signings, and more on how MLB and Apple Vision might work: