UTK Special 2/5/25

The Value of Pressure: Putting a Dollar Sign on Leverage Index in Major League Baseball

Baseball has always been about the moments. The heartbeat before the pitch in the bottom of the ninth, the electricity in the air when a batter steps in with the bases loaded, the sharp intake of breath as the ball leaves the pitcher’s hand. These moments are why we watch, why we care. And they’re why teams invest so heavily in players who thrive under pressure. But what if we could go beyond the narrative? What if we could attach a dollar value to the moments that make or break games? That’s the promise of Leverage Index (LI), a metric that quantifies the importance of individual situations within a game. The question is, can we take it a step further and translate that importance into economic terms?

Leverage Index, created by the pseudonymous sabermetrician “Tom Tango”, measures the potential impact of a play on a game’s outcome. The higher the leverage, the more that specific moment matters in determining whether a team wins or loses. It’s simple in theory but profound in application. Not all strikeouts are created equal. Fanning a batter in the first inning of a lopsided game isn’t the same as punching out the side with the tying run on third in the ninth. LI lets us understand the stakes of every pitch, every swing, every decision.

From a team’s perspective, these high-leverage situations represent opportunities to gain a competitive edge. But they also represent a unique kind of value, one that goes beyond the numbers on the scoreboard. High-leverage moments don’t just determine wins and losses—they influence ticket sales, TV ratings, merchandise revenue, and even postseason payouts. Fans remember the dramatic walk-off hits and the cold-blooded strikeouts in the clutch. They don’t care about what happened in a 7-1 game in May. Teams, of course, understand this dynamic and are constantly trying to capture and monetize it. But how do you quantify it? How do you put a price tag on pressure?

To answer that, you need to understand how performance in high-leverage situations ties to a team’s bottom line. Let’s start with Win Probability Added (WPA), a stat that measures the tangible impact of a player’s actions on their team’s chances of winning. WPA works hand-in-hand with LI: the higher the leverage, the greater the potential WPA swing. A clutch homer in a high-leverage spot might add 40% to your team’s win probability; a groundout in the same situation could cost you just as much. Over the course of a season, a player’s WPA in high-leverage moments can provide a clear picture of how much they’ve contributed when it matters most.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Wins in Major League Baseball aren’t just about pride or even playoff positioning—they’re about money. Studies have estimated that a single additional win can generate $2-3 million in revenue for a typical MLB team, with the number rising for contenders and postseason-bound clubs. The revenue comes from increased ticket sales, higher TV ratings, and a cascade of other economic effects. Now imagine a player who adds two or three wins’ worth of WPA in high-leverage situations. That player isn’t just helping you win games; they’re directly contributing millions of dollars to your organization.

Take a dominant closer like Josh Hader, for example. When he’s on the mound in the ninth with a one-run lead, the leverage is through the roof. If he converts those saves consistently, he’s not just protecting wins—he’s protecting revenue. Those high-leverage outs could be worth millions to a playoff contender, where every win in September might mean the difference between making the postseason or missing it entirely. That’s value that goes beyond the box score.

Of course, not all high-leverage moments are created equal. A ninth-inning save in a pennant race isn’t the same as one in the middle of April. Context matters, and so does the broader economic landscape of the team. A high-leverage performer on the Dodgers or Yankees might have a greater monetary impact than the same player on the Royals or Pirates, simply because the stakes—and the revenue implications—are higher in bigger markets with more at stake.

This brings us to the other side of the equation: how much of that value trickles down to the players themselves? Historically, MLB’s free-agent market has rewarded players with reputations for performing in the clutch. Think of how closers like Mariano Rivera or hitters like David Ortiz built careers—and legacies—on thriving in high-leverage moments. But while these players often earn top-dollar contracts, the market isn’t perfect. Teams are sometimes hesitant to pay a premium for high-leverage performance, viewing it as a smaller sample size or the product of luck. It’s a strange paradox: teams will shell out for home runs and strikeouts, but the context of when those numbers happen can be harder to price.

This reluctance might explain why the monetary value of LI remains somewhat abstract. Teams know it matters—they just struggle to quantify it in a way that feels precise. Part of the challenge is that high-leverage situations are inherently less common than medium- or low-leverage ones. A starter might face one or two truly high-leverage spots in a game, while a reliever might see them more often but in fewer innings. Over a full season, even the best high-leverage performers might only have 30 or 40 opportunities to shine. That small sample size makes it harder to draw definitive conclusions about their value.

But here’s the thing: scarcity creates value. The very fact that high-leverage situations are rare is why they’re so important. Teams that can consistently win in these moments have an edge, both on the field and at the bank. And players who can deliver in these moments should be viewed as more than just a collection of stats. They’re difference-makers, capable of swinging not just games but entire seasons.

So, can we put a monetary value on Leverage Index? The answer is a qualified yes. By combining LI with WPA and linking it to team revenue, we can estimate how much a player’s performance in high-leverage situations contributes to the bottom line. For a team in contention, the value of these moments can be immense—potentially worth millions of dollars per season. For the players, the challenge is convincing teams to recognize and pay for that value in a market that still prioritizes counting stats over context.

In the end, Leverage Index is more than just a metric. It’s a lens through which we can view the game’s most pivotal moments, the players who excel under pressure, and the economic stakes that make baseball more than just a pastime. The numbers might be abstract, but the impact is real. High-leverage moments are where legends are made, games are won, and dollars are earned. And if you’re looking for the value of pressure, it’s right there, in the space between the pitch and the swing, waiting to be measured.