UTK Special 2/2/26

The 2025 Return List

This is always one of the biggest pieces of the year, one that requires the most work and time. I started working on it almost a year ago and next year’s will start soon. The reason is that the off-season is still something of a black hole for information. While the teams stay in contact with injured players and even some continuing rehabs after a previous season return, they don’t often share it. This isn’t a piece AI will be doing any time soon.

Just selecting the names is a tough one because I could probably go 35 or 40 deep if I wanted to and didn’t want to go greyer than I already am. Those will be taken care of in the comments, I’m sure, which is another reason to be a paying subscriber - even on free days, I hold comments for subscribers, because it makes moderation easier. If the bots want to subscribe, I’d let them, at least for a bit.

It’s Groundhog Day so if it feels like this happens over and over to your team, I’ll point you back to the billion dollars baseball lost to injuries last season. We can only hope it’s something less than that this year, but it probably won’t be. So let’s jump into this - the biggest impact returns and expected returns for 2026:

Aaron Judge, NYY – Elbow flexor strain

Just because Aaron Judge hit well doesn’t mean that “flexor strain” isn’t very firmly on my radar. For pitchers, we know the flexor’s involvement in the deceleration/absorption phase of pitching is predictive (but we don’t know why.) The worst case for Judge is that he’s at DH … but Giancarlo Stanton still exists and there’s no indication the Yankees are going to Bryce Harper Judge this spring. It’s not the worst idea, mind you, but Judge acquitted himself pretty well with his adjustments and an off-season of rest and rehab should help. At the plate, it means nothing. It’s not involved, so there’s no upside there, which is something I’ve seen others discuss. Psychological effect? Maybe, but not enough that I think there’s some leap, especially considering he’s already at an elite level even with the injury. Barry Bonds didn’t get better after his elbow injury; he just stayed elite AF. 

Anthony Volpe, NYY – Left shoulder labrum repair

Anthony Volpe was clearly off in 2025, but he’s been inconsistent through the start of his career. He’s never been a great hitter, but losing defensive value last year was the killer, cutting his WAR in half and making everyone glance over at George Lombard and ask “is he ready?” Volpe will get about half a season to show that it was the injury and that he can get back to his previous level and even then, Lombard’s coming even though he hit almost exactly the same average as Volpe but in Double-A. Labrum surgery has come a long way in the last decade, so Volpe has a good chance to come back from this and get back to where he was. There’s an outside chance he’s comeback player of the year.

Austin Riley, ATL – Lower abdominal strain

Call it a sports hernia or a core muscle repair, it’s the same relatively easy road back. While I don’t know the actual date of the surgery, I do know that we’re well past the six to eight weeks normally needed and I’m told Riley healed well and is already back to normal activities. In fact, it could be considered almost a normal off-season for him. That’s good, because almost all the upside for the Braves is based on health. Last year went poorly and they were home in October. A few more healthy months from players like Riley and the pitching staff and they should be back or at least more competitive for new manager Walt Weiss.

Triston Casas, BOS – Patellar tendon rupture

This was a devastating injury for both Casas and for the Sox. It seemed to throw off the start of the season and when their young core didn’t immediately pick up the slack, the team never seemed to find itself despite ending with a solid record. Triston Casas comes back to a different team construction, one which doesn’t look good for him even if his knee is back to 100 percent early on. (A source expects him to be close physically, but wasn’t as confident about the confidence he’ll have, especially given his path back.) With Willson Contreras now expected to be the starter, Casas will the backup, maybe in the DH mix, and maybe just a bench bat. He doesn’t offer much flexibility and if the knee is good, we may see him take some looks in the outfield just to see. My guess is we’ll see him open on a rehab assignment and see how the lineup shakes out. 

Lourdes Gurriel, ARI – ACL sprain

Baseball doesn’t have many ACL injuries, but it shouldn’t be behind the NFL and NCAA in timing. It’s the same doctors, largely. It’s the same rehab, largely. But the demands aren’t the same and no one is hitting them, largely. Look below or right here and you’ll see how MLB ACLs happen - quirky plays that look fine, until they don’t. The thing is, most come back fine-ish. The -ish is the slightly longer time it takes to get confidence in the knee than it does to actually heal it up. I could rant about new techniques that could shorten the time, but baseball moves slowly. Gurriel should be fine but don’t expect an all-the-way-back immediately and his return could come anywhere from May to July. We’ll have plenty of time to see it coming with a long rehab assignment, but I’m told the actual medical rehab has gone extremely well. How well? The D-Backs haven’t prioritized filling that slot, thinking they can get by with some combination of Pavin Smith, Blaze Alexander, and maybe Ryan Waldschmidt or Tommy Troy given the roster situation.

Completely off topic but I spoke to a scouting director recently as I was thinking of doing an article about how visas might get weird post-Maduro and post-ICE. So far, it’s not, but he did mention how both Venezuelans and Cubans at all levels of baseball are definitely paying attention to politics. He joked that the biggest change is that “the players are using Match instead of Tinder”, indicating they’re looking for the citizenship rather than the situationship. It was mostly a joke, but someone out there could put together a list of players who have some risk to visa and immigration changes and those who have citizenship or rights via the various means. 

Ronald Acuna, ATL – ACL sprain

Yes, Ronald Acuna came back last year, but we’ve seen this movie before. That first year back wasn’t as bad as the first time he blew his ACL. That tracks, having known how the rehab goes. If the second season back goes as before, he’ll be an MVP candidate and if so, the Braves are contenders again. If not, they’re not, but let’s be clear - there’s no reason at all to think he won’t be 100 percent physically.

Reports are that Acuna looked good in the Venezuelan winter league. At age-28, I do think we’ll see a jump in power, speed, and if you can explain to me why his batting eye got so much better in 2023, then went back after his second ACL rehab, I’d love to hear it. Acuna is the Braves’ engine and with both repaired, we have to hope he’s done with knee reconstructions, at least until he’s well retired and getting them replaced, as is often the case.

Sean Murphy, ATL – Hip labrum

This one is another interesting one given Murphy’s status and value, but also that he was largely Pipped by Drake Baldwin. If healthy - and I’m told the hip labrum surgery was normal - the two of them will swap back and forth between C and DH. Of course, this does mean that the team will likely carry a third catcher and who that will be but they didn’t do it much last year, meaning they could lose the DH if one went down. (Joe Sheehan tells me pitchers batted seven times last year, non-Ohtani class.) That doesn’t happen much as far as I can tell and Gwinnett is close for a reason. Chadwick Tromp is an NRI, their minor leaguers aren’t top prospects, so I’m sure Alex Anthopolous has someone with their finger on the waiver wire button. But I’m relatively confident that Murphy will be better this year catching than he has been and the idea that maybe that unstable base led to some of the batting average gives him some upside as well.

Garrett Mitchell, MIL – Shoulder surgery

Garrett Mitchell’s last three seasons have been injury prone and a second shoulder surgery is a bad sign for a power bat. Worse, the Brewers are flat loaded with incoming prospects. Some aren’t there yet, but with three top shortstop prospects, one will move to second, the other will move to third or, if its Jett Williams, he has played in center, which tightens everything on the roster. If Matt Arnold and Matt Kleine look around and need a spot, the guy who can’t stay healthy might be the one to go first. Many still believe Mitchell has upside and the Brewers are very willing to use players in ways that maximize that, even if it isn’t what you’d expect. There’s not many stars here yet, but that’s changing. We should know early in spring training whether Mitchell’s still got a chance to re-establish himself as part of the Brewers’ bright future.

Masyn Winn (STL) – Knee meniscus surgery

It’s a new era in St Louis, with Chaim Bloom in charge and certainly, he’s not scared of making moves. He’s cleared some space on the roster, might clear more if the right deal comes along, but the key is that the pieces he has in place need to be healthy and development has to be more productive. Since Bloom just spent a year on that last part, let’s assume there’s a plan in place. The one key piece he does have is Masyn Winn, one of few prospects that’s not only made it up, but established himself. The meniscus tear at the end of the season was taken care of - cleaned up, not repaired - and he’s already running well. He should be fine for the near future, have no change in his game, and we’ll hope for a slight uptick given that he was dealing with the sore knee for most of the season.

William Contreras, MIL – fractured finger

William Contreras played through a fractured finger and paid a bit of a price and perhaps a literal one. The fracture moved enough and didn’t heal well because of playing through it, so after the season he had it pinned (and likely re-fractured for placement - ouch!) Like all fractures, it takes about six weeks, so he’s well past it now and should have a relatively normal off-season. The downside is that the team is declined his $12m option and elected to go to arbitration. Even Contreras’ people agreed though, asking for $9.9m against a team offer of 8.5m. You’d think they could have met in the middle, but they’ll go to the hearing.

A note: MLB arbitration doesn’t allow teams to argue injuries directly. No one gets up and says “this guy’s elbow scares us” or waves around medical charts. The process is backward-looking by design: what did you do last year, how much did you play, how does that stack up against comparable players? That’s where injuries creep in. Missed time shows up as fewer games, fewer innings, and so on. Performance dips get framed as velocity loss, OPS decline, or WAR regression; never the diagnosis, just the outcome. The real damage happens in comps, where teams quietly select players who also missed time or faded post-injury, then say, “this is the market.” So injuries are never the argument, but they’re often the reason the argument works. Arbitration pays for certainty, not context. If you weren’t on the field, or weren’t yourself while you were there, the arbitrators don’t care why.

Gerrit Cole, NYY – elbow repair/reconstruction

I’ll start off here with something I’m going to contradict later. I will stand on the hill that braced elbow reconstructions should be much quicker rehabs and even with the uncertainty of the suddenly many flavored landscape of elbow options. Cole is currently on track for a May return, per the Yankees, which means he’ll spend April bouncing around the affiliates instead of helping the Yankees in a tight AL East. If he looks good in spring, what’s the difference between four short starts in March in a completely controlled situation and four short starts in April, against worse competition? Cole is already throwing, has been medically cleared, and has had a full, normal off-season. Remember this if the Yankees are just out of playoff position in September, that they had a choice in January. I still think Cole’s the easy pick for comeback player of the year.

Clarke Schmidt, NYY – elbow repair

Clarke Schmidt had an elbow repair with internal brace and Schmidt is precisely the type of player on precisely the right team to push things. The Yankees have the “Gas Factory” and a lot of smart people who haven’t really shown results. Doesn’t make them bad, doesn’t make them dumb, but results do count. If Schmidt takes a full year, like Cole, this makes the brace make no sense. If Jobe’s operation “just works”, why complicate it? We know from extensive data that internal braces do allow quicker returns. In baseball, braced thumb reconstructions (Trout, Pedroia, more) went from two months to one. Ankles in soccer? Cut in half as well. Knees? I’ve shown you what Chad Lavender can do with braces and his technique (which I remain convinced would work on elbows.) Even Jeff Dugas has done it in months on lesser elbows than Schmidt, but there hasn’t been a run of failures there. Schmidt doesn’t need to come back in six months, but nine? That’s the start of the season and a full season of Clarke Schmidt is a zero-cost upgrade. The Yankees will start off with five good starters and the early return of Carlos Rodon (bone spur removal) will make it better. If they only need one of Will Warren, Luis Gil, and Cam Schlitter from the start, how many wins is that worth? By the time Cole is back, the Yankees will know if they’ve kept up with the Jays, but I’m telling you that the deciding factor will be how many starts the Warren/Gil/Schlitter triumvirate make by that point (and this is no insult to those three, who are credible back end starters with some upside.) Then we can discuss Elmer Rodriguez, Ben Hess, and don’t forget Chase Hampton will be back from his TJ early in ‘26 as well.

Corbin Burnes, ARI – elbow reconstruction

There’s about to be a lot of elbow surgeries discussed here, but you’ll notice I’m getting away from using the term “Tommy John surgery.” Not because it’s any less prevalent, but because it’s no longer the only option. Frank Jobe’s miracle was, technically, an “elbow reconstruction with same-side autograft.” Now, we have that, plus reconstruction with internal brace, repair with internal brace, Chris Ahmad’s “Triple Tommy John”, which is basically a belt-and-suspenders, and at least two more variations that I am honestly not clear on. When I know which it is, I feel that the surgeries are different enough to note. The rehabs should definitely be different, but aren’t right now. Burnes is on-record saying he wants to come back in July, at the 12-month mark, which should be very possible. He’d definitely add to a good staff that needs that ace-level guy that Burnes has been before the injury. We have little reason to think that post-TJ, Burnes won’t be that again. Remember, the D-Backs are waiting on not just Burnes to come back from elbow surgery, but AJ Puk, Blake Walston, and a couple more, plus a handful of shoulder guys. Health really matters for teams in what I call the “blanket zone” - a majority of teams are a few games on either side of 500 and you could throw a proverbial blanket over them. Often, health or something like Cal Raleigh’s breakout are the only differentiators.

Zack Wheeler, PHI - thoracic outlet syndrome

I recently watched a thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, something I’d never seen before. Vascular surgeons are pretty amazing, but they don’t use some of the more modern tools. With a surgery like the one Zack Wheeler had, hacking out a rib with a big knife goes about exactly like you’d think it would. One phrase the surgeon said is that “TOS sees us more than we see it” seemed universally agreed upon and while we’re getting better at diagnosing it, it’s still hard to get right until a lot of other things are ruled out, making it time consuming and frustrating even before the surgery and rehab. Wheeler is throwing and there’s some indication he’ll pitch in spring games. The timing is more likely to make it so he’s not ready in April, but May? Quite possible and if he’s back to normal, Wheeler makes that Phillies rotation go six deep and he could be the 3 or 4 starter, believe it or not.

Justin Steele, CHC – elbow revision/repair

Justin Steele got back on a mound in mid-January, a big step for any TJ guy, so we know he’s about a month behind. We’ll see him some in late spring and probably sometime in early May for a back to the rotation. He’ll get some extra time in Arizona, then the rehab gets a bit complex because of the lack of warm spots. I guess Myrtle Beach is normally warm, though I’m writing this while watching the Carolinas getting snow-icaned. As with most TJ’s, Steele will have some adjustment early, but then they typically get back to their level quickly and stay there for at least the next five years. Steele’s was a revision (second surgery), with his first coming in 2017 when he was in Single-A. That lasted almost a decade, so call it a success. At age-30, he probably won’t need another one.

Hayden Wesneski, HOU – elbow reconstruction
Ronel Blanco, HOU - elbow reconstruction (brace)

The surprising thing is that the Astros have, even before adding Hayden Wesneski and Ronel Blanco back into the mix sometime in the second half, a lot of pitching depth. They have a legit 10-deep roster of possibles, which is smart if unusual in this day and age, especially with many of them not exactly clean bullpen transfers. Wesneski and Blanco both figure to be depth more than difference makers, though both have shown flashes. Wesneski will be back first and Blanco’s surgery was more complicated, so there’s a chance he doesn’t make it back at all this season. The depth makes the reads here a bit tougher. If they’re healthy at the top, there’s no need to rush, but if they’re down at 7 or 8, either of these guys is an easy upgrade. The Astros med staff is taking this at a standard pace - not a rush, not a slow walk, and likely the right call. 

Jackson Jobe, DET – elbow reconstruction

The Tigers could have the best rotation in the AL Central by some measure, if they keep Tarik Skubal and if they can get their young arms healthy. Add in some great young hitters coming quickly and the team could easily improve on a division-winning 2025. Jackson Jobe won’t be able to add much, but he could get back late this season and help in the pen if needed. He’s also the likely solution for Skubal’s absence in ‘27. If Tigers fans want to know how this will likely go, watch Andrew Painter this season as they were handled in much the same way and have similar stuff if not bodies. Tommy John is predictable, so at least there’s that for the Tigers right now.

AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL – elbow reconstruction

One of my favorite names - I just like how it flows, plus it’s a long name with only five syllables - will be out at least the first half and likely into the second. August seems to be the target, which again seems long. The Braves have had their share of experience with this, especially recently, so if you like where Spencer Strider is, AJSS is a year behind, more or less. The Braves have a lot of depth, but a lot of injuries ate through that, so Smith-Shawver should be at least a depth upgrade when he’s ready and the nearby affiliates make the process easier. Bonus: keep an eye on Grant Holmes, who should be the SP4 if the small sprain he had in his UCL healed well. We should know that early and the first sign might be if the Braves push to sign a front line pitcher. If not and if Holmes isn’t ready, Reynaldo Lopez becomes a starter out of need.

Tanner Houck, BOS – elbow repair

Houck is an interesting case in that he had a “hybrid repair”, which is normally a ligament repair with the brace overlay, but there was suggestion his operation wasn’t exactly standard. Is that good or bad? Sources tell me that his August surgery means he won’t return to the rotation, but might come in late in the season as a reliever or opener depending on the context of the Red Sox. However, things get a bit squirrelly on timing. A pitcher only gets 30 days for rehab, but there’s roster games that can be played and sim games in the complex or with the big club don’t count. That assignment is going to be the purest tell, but there’s some indications that he could be early, but again, all that depends on the team’s context.

Ben Joyce, LAA - shoulder labrum repair

Remember all the hubbub about “Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim”? Here in ‘26, no one thinks about the name or location any more. There’s much bigger issues and lies, I guess. The team has plenty of issues and after a missed year, Ben Joyce is trying to come back from shoulder labrum repair. This used to be like a thoroughbred breaking its leg, but in the last five years, the success rate has jumped. This is entirely due to technique and some new hardware, but the rehab is still archaic and hard to change because of so few successes. Joyce is throwing, but putting a timeline on anything is hard. What’s harder is figuring out what his stuff will be at this stage. Throwing from 120 feet is nice, but the path back to triple digits is almost uncharted. I have some hope, but is Joyce a viable pitcher at 98? 95? I don’t know that either, but I think we’ll get some indication in late spring training.

I couldn’t find a good injury video on YouTube, so watch Eric Sim try to hang:

Have someone you want to know about that I didn’t address here? Put it in the comments.