UTK Special 2/18/21
Tatis Goes Long
I was about three-quarters of the way in on a piece which will now run tomorrow, which is how you’d expect these things to go. The news broke on Fernando Tatis Jrs long term extension with the Padres on the first evening of spring training, but I’m told this has been in the works for months, roughly coinciding with the Seidlers taking control of the team.
The number that jumps out is not the total value, annual value, or even the structure, but “14”. This could be the only contract Tatis ever signs, avoids all sorts of arbitration and negotiation, allowing Tatis to be marketed heavily as the face of the franchise, all the way to his age-35 season. If he earns another contract at that point, the Padres have won. He’ll be on his way to the Hall of Fame with none of the longer-term, age-decline downside risk of even a deal like Bryce Harper’s, let alone an Albert Pujols’.
But every player, even a young athletic one like Tatis, faces injury risk. In his two seasons, Tatis has spent 39 days on the IL, but they are to a similar area - the lower back and legs, his case the hamstrings. These are usually related - a lack of flexibility and perhaps some level of genetic maximum. For leg injuries, the fact that he’s lost no sprint speed is key.
(Image and data courtesy Derek Rhoads.)
The injuries for Tatis Jr. in and of themselves* aren’t too worrying. Get him on a program to focus on flexibility instead of strength and the early intervention should be enough to keep him going through the bulk of his career. There’s always going to be traumatic risk, like the shoulder injury that altered his father’s career.
Which brings up an interesting point. Anyone with “Jr.” on their jersey obviously has some genetic connections to the game, but Tatis Sr. has one of the odder career paths you’re going to find. He washed out of the game in 2004, took a couple years off and came back in roughly the same spot, maybe better. He really only had one good year (1999), but was a positive after he returned to the game. He did have a traumatic shoulder injury that was quite a story due to a controversial diagnosis, but he really had no injury issues over his career.
A few of you might remember Murray Chass’ great series about Tatis Srs. search for his father, also named Fernando Tatis. (Does that change Tatis Jr. into Tatis III?) There’s almost no data on the elder Tatis’ career, but there’s probably more to be read into a third generation professional player than anything else. Maybe Rick Hahn needs to seal up something with Elijah Tatis, Fernando’s younger brother, who Fernando Sr. has said is the more talented of his sons. (!)
If we look beyond that to try and find comparable players, there’s not a lot we can look at. Bryce Harper was this good this young and has had little or no injury problem through his career. Alex Rodriguez is a great comp and he played his age 22 through 35 seasons by playing no less than 124 games each year and less than 140 in only two of those. I think the Padres would take that.
For a couple negative ones, Carlos Correa has had back issues, including his weird massage-induced rib injury, if you buy that story. (I don’t.) At age-26, Correa is due to get Tatis-like money if he can stay healthy and productive into this historic shortstop free agent class, but he is a more risky player. Given his injury history, I’m not sure I’d give him the long term deal you see here. Think more Trevor Bauer than Fernando Tatis.
There’s a couple other comps that really seem interesting to me. For Padres fans, the idea that they have another Gary Templeton is something of an acid test. Templeton’s biggest failure is not being Ozzie Smith, who he was traded for (though not heads-up as many mistakenly remember it.) Templeton’s career doesn’t compare in raw numbers, but era adjusted, he was a positive value hitter for most of his career, not to mention a very good if not Smith-level fielder. Over the same ages covered by Tatis’ contract, Templeton was a 23-win player, which is not what you want from Tatis, a guy who’s at 7-wins in two abbreviated seasons.
The other comp that came up in my search is one I knew almost nothing about - Vern Stephens. Stephens was a war-year stud, playing for the St. Louis Browns in their only pennant season, but he was regularly on par with Ted Williams in Boston, finishing second and HR to Williams in 1949, but beating him in RBI, largely because Williams was always on base ahead of him. Williams said that Stephens was the best hitter he ever had behind him in the order. Stephens was a 43-win player over the ages covered by Tatis’ deal, with the caveat that he was out of the game at 34 rather than the 35 where Tatis’ deal stops.
43-wins is an interesting spot. That’s roughly where the careers of Andrew McCutchen (44.6) and Buster Posey (41.8) are right now. Both have had injuries, Posey more so, plus his 2020 opt-out, but have put up very solid numbers. If the Padres just paid $300 million for the careers of McCutchen and Posey, would you feel like it was a good deal? I would.
Of course, lurking just behind them at 39-wins is Manny Machado. Heading into his age-28 season, Machado is the comp that the Padres hope Tatis follows and with both of them locked up through at least 2028, that’s possibly 50 to 60 wins just from two players, albeit expensive ones. The Padres have set a floor of being better than the 2021 Pirates for the next decade before we even discuss other players on the team. That’s impressive.
To summarize, any contract that’s trying to look this far into the future has risk, but the data we have on both Tatis himself and other, similar players shows that the Padres have likely made a great deal for themselves and for baseball. Depending on how the off-season goes with the free agent shortstops like Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, and potentially Francisco Lindor, Tatis’ contract could be a bargain. I’ll take that risk, in every sense.
If you haven’t gotten in a comment on the UTK Thread from yesterday, you still can. I think this was an interesting experiment and would love to see more subscribers taking advantage. Normally, I say never read the comments, but this one wasn’t bad!
Also, a reminder. If you want to hear me and Joel Henard talking about fantasy baseball, I guest on his podcast every Wednesday. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts — except Spotify, and he’s working on that. Also, I’m experimenting with Clubhouse, so if anyone’s on there, email or comment with ideas.
*This isn’t a movie recommendation site by a long shot, but I am telling you to watch “In and Of Itself” starring Derek Del Gaudio. It’s on Hulu and while it’s ostensibly a magic show, it’s so much more. I won’t spoil anything, but I’m telling you - I haven’t had a more moving experience in a long, long time. I want to read that book.