UTK Special 2/11/25

The Comebackers, 2025 Edition

The sale on annual membership continues through today. Honestly, I just forgot to take it down on Sunday as I intended. $49 for an annual membership and a big thank you from me to all who have taken advantage.

With another NFL season down - congrats to the Eagles - and basketball rushing headlong through a meaningless regular season and into March Madness and Playoffs, where people do care, it means we’re closer to baseball. Camps have been creeping up for years, with mini-camps, voluntary camps, and industrialized off-seasons allowed by the salaries and benefits available. It’s at this point where people always start asking me about the comeback players, which gives me at least one easy column a year. This is as simple as concept as exists, so let’s get to it!

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Injury: Right elbow surgery (September 2023), left labrum surgery (November 2024)

If there’s one player in baseball who defies normal injury expectations, it’s Shohei Ohtani. His still unknown elbow surgery sidelined him as a pitcher for all of 2024, but his bat carried the Dodgers to a World Series win, proving that even at half capacity, he’s an MVP-caliber player. Talent is not deferred. There’s plenty of depth so while Ohtani is pencilled in to both the rotation (six man or not) and the DH slot, it would be easy for them to rest him more if needed.

Now, he faces another challenge: a return to two-way dominance after undergoing labrum surgery in November. The Dodgers are targeting May for his return to the mound, but the timeline for shoulder injuries, especially for power hitters, is tricky. Statcast might give us the first indications with bat speed, spin rate, and other metrics being hardcore tea leaved from day one of camp.

The Dodgers likely already know this stuff, but there’s a small circle there that does and they’re not talking. If it’s any indication, none of them seem worried either. The world will be watching every radar gun reading and every swing for signs that Ohtani can again be the singular force that baseball has never seen before.

Ronald Acuna Jr, Atlanta Braves
Injury: Torn ACL (May 2024)

Two torn ACLs before turning 27. That’s the unfortunate reality for Acuna, who, at his peak, is one of the most electrifying players in baseball. His 2023 season—41 home runs, 73 steals, a .337 average—was the stuff of legends. If you think he can’t come back, well, he already did and second rehabs are often easier since it’s a known. While it’s not a perfect comp, Manny Machado had two early career knee issues and he’s been just fine since.

Let others worry about “oh no, two ACLs.” They’re related, but not really. If he’s got bad ACLs, so be it. If it’s bad ligaments or tissue, that can’t be corrected. But we know some important things. He rebounded well from the first ACL tear, though his speed took time to return. With Statcast, we’ll know when it is, though you’ll have to buy early. The Braves could be cautious with his workload, likely using him as a DH early on. His power and bat speed should still make him a top-tier hitter. But expecting a 70-steal season in 2025? That’s probably a stretch.

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
Injury: Elbow surgery (April 2024)

People seem to be worried that Spencer Strider can’t come back from elbow surgery. Before his surgery, he was the game’s premier strikeout artist—281 K’s in 186.2 innings in 2023, an absurd 41.5% strikeout rate. We still don’t have enough data points to compare Internal Brace to standard Tommy John, especially with the variations. Since MLB teams are rehabbing them the same, we have to kind of have the same expectations, with the hope that the bracing reduces revisions if not rehab time. Readers here should know that the vast majority, near 90 percent, of pitchers come back. Not better, but often very close to the same. The failures and the drop-offs are the exceptions, not the rule.

The Braves expect him back in 2025, but his velocity and command will be under the microscope. We’ll know quickly from Statcast if he can still generate that elite extension and spin rate. I’m curious if the Braves or even Strider will tweak his mechanics. Even at 90% of his former self, Strider is a frontline starter. For me, the biggest risk is that the Braves may hold him back on innings, though they haven’t articulated that they will or how they would.

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Injury: Meniscus removal (August 2024)

For a brief moment, Trout looked like his old self. He was stealing bases, mashing homers, and reminding everyone why he’s a three-time MVP. Then, another injury—his third in four years—derailed everything. Is he Ken Griffey Jr instead of Mickey Mantle? He’s a Hall of Famer, but there’s been a whole lot of silence on the Trout front and even my best Angels sources don’t know what Trout’s been doing this off-season. They regularly let him do his own thing.

Let’s clarify the surgeries. He tore his meniscus, had a minor meniscectomy, and a normal if long-ish rehab. He quickly re-tore the meniscus at the surgical site, but it was not a repair that went bad. It was a second tear. The first surgery was not a repair. He had a second partial meniscectomy that ended his season.

The Angels haven’t sniffed the postseason since 2014, and Trout is now 33, coming off two knee surgeries in the same season. It’s less about his talent and what the Angels might do to finally get back to October and now, whether Trout’s time as an elite is over. Does he move from CF? Does he DH? It’d be nice to know this, but Trout’s ADP feels like a reverse auction and even then, I don’t have any feel for his real value. Most projections have him as a severely diminished asset, but I have no confidence saying that despite the broad agreement across models.

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
Injury: Tommy John surgery (April 2024)

The timing of Bieber’s Tommy John surgery was brutal. Heading into his final year before free agency, he looked like a prime trade chip until his elbow gave out. Now, he’s in rehab mode and there’s indications he won’t be back before mid-season. The Guardians have a history of developing pitchers, but Bieber’s future is murky.

He’s going to have some nasty comparisons, to his own Cy Young stuff. Yes, it’s likely going to be down from that, but few pitchers stay at dominant level year after year. We call those “Hall of Famers” when it lasts even a few years. If he’s just good, he likely becomes the best pitcher available at the deadline and I expect him to be good ahead of schedule.

Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
Injury: Back fracture (May 2024)

What if Evan Carter never comes back? His Rangers career would functionally be winning the World Series and never really playing again. That’s into Moonlight Graham territory. Let’s hope that’s not the case, but recurrent back issues at such a young age are a real problem. Part of the issue is that the injury is misunderstood. It was a stress reaction, which we’re seeing more of due to better diagnostic tools, and then there was a surgery in the fall to clean things up. Reports are that Carter has bulked up and is moving well in the off-season. There’s risk, but certainly upside if people forgot just how good he is. If healthy, he and Wyatt Langford could put Texas back into playoff discussions in a hurry.

Shane McClanahan, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Injury: Tommy John surgery (August 2023)

Before his elbow injury, McClanahan was one of the most electric left-handers in the game. The Rays are expecting him to be ready for 2025, but Tommy John is never a sure thing. His velocity and control will be worth monitoring. If he returns to form as expected, Tampa Bay’s rotation gets a massive boost. If not, they’ll have to lean on their ever-present pitching depth.

They have plenty of guys, but the biggest question for McClanahan is how the Rays limit his innings. Do they bring him back slowly, even though he’s well into the period where his return looks slow (but isn’t), or do they risk shutting him down in the midst of an unexpected wild card push? Or do they ride him hard and let the team they trade him to at the deadline deal with the issue?

Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins
Injury: Tommy John surgery (October 2023)

The 2022 Cy Young winner went down right as Miami made its surprise playoff run. Now, he’s on a rebuilding team and could be a prime trade candidate once he’s healthy. If he returns to ace form, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. If he struggles, Miami’s rebuild could get even more painful. Alcantara is a reminder that the pitchers that seem like exceptions to the rule, aren’t. Every pitcher is one pitch away from this, or worse. The great thing is that most return well and Alcantara has had plenty of time. We just need to see his stuff now.

Eury Perez, Miami Marlins
Injury: Tommy John surgery (April 2024)

Perez is the Marlins' future—an ultra-talented, 6-foot-8 right-hander with the kind of stuff that turns heads. His 2023 season showed just how dominant he could be at just 20 years old. But Tommy John surgery in April 2024 means his 2025 season will likely be limited. Miami won’t rush him back - they’ll finish last with or without him - and realistically, he may not throw more than 40-50 innings this year. The long-term picture, however, is bright. If his velocity and command return post-surgery, Perez could be a second ace-level arm for a team desperately trying to rebuild. Patience will be key, but the upside is massive.

Felix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles
Injury: Tommy John surgery (October 2023)

As a really big guy, some have questioned whether Tommy John surgery is different. The answer? Nope. Bautista was absolutely dominant as a closer and he was missed some last year, though there’s always someone who can replace a closer. Ask the Yankees. The Orioles are banking on his return to reclaim his role as a high-leverage shutdown closer. He’s had plenty of time to recover, but I’d expect the O’s to be conservative and perhaps not use him quite as much, especially early. That could cost him a few saves. I also wonder if he has a down stretch early, as closers often do, if they share the role between Bautista and whoever Brandon Hyde likes on a given day from the collection of power arms they have.

Matt Brash, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Injury: Tommy John surgery (May 2024)

Throws hard, has elbow surgery, comes back in a year. Rinse, repeat. Seattle’s bullpen took a hit with Brash’s absence in 2024, but he should be back early in ‘25 if not necessarily on Opening Day. One of baseball’s most-used relievers in 2023, Brash's elite strikeout ability makes him a key part of the Mariners’ relief corps. The surgery means his 2025 workload will be limited, but his return alongside Andrés Muñoz should restore Seattle’s late-game dominance, but don’t expect the save numbers to be there.

Liam Hendriks, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Injury: Tommy John surgery (August 2023)

Hendriks’ journey from elite closer to cancer survivor to rehabbing pitcher is remarkable. The 36-year-old was among baseball’s best relievers before elbow surgery. Now with Boston, the question shouldn’t be about whether his stuff comes back - it does in the vast majority of Tommy John cases. It should be about his role. As a closer, he could be elite and put up big numbers. As a setup guy and clubhouse plus, he’s certainly valuable to the Sox, but less to your fantasy team. That could depend as much on Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman as it does Hendriks.

Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
Injury: Microdiscectomy (August 2024)

For a while, it felt like the Yelich we remembered was back. He was hitting .315, showing power, and swiping bases again. Then came the back injury, surgery, and a premature end to what had been a resurgent season. Milwaukee kept rolling to an NL Central title, but Yelich’s absence loomed large. Disc surgery is always a worry but if it relieves the pain he’s dealt with for a couple years and frees up his legs and core as he said back in December, that’s a big plus.

What’s next? The Brewers have seen Jackson Chourio emerge as a real weapon, but a fully healthy Yelich in 2025 could give Milwaukee one of the most dynamic outfields in baseball. After an offseason that saw more departures than arrivals, getting Yelich and Brandon Woodruff back might be the biggest "additions" the Brewers make.

Ronny Mauricio, New York Mets
Injury: Torn right ACL (December 2023)

Mauricio had Mets fans buzzing after his debut in 2023, flashing the raw tools that make scouts drool. His first career hit? A 117.3 mph rocket double, an exit velocity you usually associate with guys named Judge or Ohtani. Then, disaster: an ACL tear in winter ball that wiped out his 2024 season. Most players return well from this and there’s no evidence Mauricio won’t be one of them.

Now, Mauricio’s return lines up with some serious roster questions in Queens. With Pete Alonso back, Mark Vientos stays at third. Luisangel Acuna is ascending and Jeff McNeil is still around. Will Mauricio even get a chance this spring prove he belongs? If he’s back to full strength, the Mets will have a tough time keeping him off the field. The question is, where?

Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros
Injury: Elbow surgery (June 2023)

McCullers last pitched in the 2022 World Series. Let that sink in. Since then, the Astros have cycled through plenty of pitching concerns — Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, J.P. France — but none have been out of sight, out of mind quite like McCullers.

When (or if) he returns in 2025, what role will he have? The Astros’ rotation has undergone changes, and McCullers, once a staple, is now more of a question mark than a sure thing. But if Houston can get anything close to the version that posted a 2.27 ERA in 2022, it could be one of the most significant boosts they get all year.

Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox
Injury: Elbow surgery (March 2024)

A year ago, Giolito was supposed to be a stabilizing force in Boston’s rotation. Instead, his elbow gave out, requiring an internal brace that reshaped his 2024 campaign before it even began. Now, he enters 2025 in a crowded field, fighting for a rotation spot that suddenly has too many contenders.

Giolito has been vocal about wanting to be ready for Opening Day, but Boston has options: Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, plus additions Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. Can Giolito force his way in? If he’s truly healthy, the Red Sox might find themselves with “too many arms”, but there’s a lot of question marks in that mix, including Giolito. With as many risks here, Giolito’s season could go a number of ways, but while he’s not likely to go much over 150 innings at the top, there’s no reason to think he won’t be back to where he was in ‘22-’23, for what that’s worth.

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers
Injury: Shoulder surgery (October 2023)

Woodruff’s return is critical for the Brewers. When healthy, he’s been one of the best starters in baseball, but shoulder injuries are brutal. There’s six or seven reasonable starter options in Milwaukee, plus Jacob Misiorowski and Craig Yoho coming, but at the start of the season, the difference between being a good rotation and a mediocre one comes down to what Woodruff is. If he’s the two again, they’ll be fine. If he’s got back end stuff, they don’t have someone who can step up and a rotation of fours isn’t what the Brewers win with.

Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers
Injury: Hip surgery (September 2024)

It’s been a rough stretch for Baez. Since signing his big dollar deal, he’s been among the worst hitters in baseball. A .184 average in 2024? Yikes. Now, he’s coming back from hip surgery, an injury that could further impact his already fading explosiveness. The Tigers have young infielders pushing for playing time and it’s hard to see Baez as an everyday player if he doesn’t show something immediately. Detroit might have no choice but to teach their fans the concept of “sunk cost” and move on to those exciting young players.

The hip surgery is interesting and while I haven’t confirmed exactly what it was, there’s some evidence that it wasn’t a simple scope. While many have assumed it was a labrum issue, one trusted source said that Baez may have had what’s called “snapping hip syndrome.” Also called dancer’s hip, which Baez might or might not prefer, there’s a couple surgical fixes depending on the location and cause. It’s not common in baseball, but there’s a high degree of success for those operations, if that’s indeed what Baez had.

Jung Hoo Lee, San Francisco Giants
Injury: Shoulder labrum surgery (June 2024)

The Giants bet big on Lee, signing him to a massive contract out of the KBO. His first MLB season? Mixed results. The bat-to-ball skills were there, but the power wasn’t. Then, a labrum tear ended his year early. Now he has to prove he can handle MLB pitching while also coming off major surgery. We often see the power as the issue after this type of injury - think Cody Bellinger. There have been significant changes to the surgery and better results over the last five years or so. If he struggles, it could be a long year in San Francisco.

Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds
Injury: Shoulder labrum surgery (March 2024)

McLain was Cincinnati’s best player in 2023, a breakout star hitting .290 with 16 homers in just 365 at-bats. Then came labrum surgery, a brutal injury for any hitter. (See above.) The good news? He returned for an unusual stint in the Arizona Fall League, meaning he should be ready for 2025. The bigger question is power. Shoulder injuries sap bat speed, and McLain’s swing relies on quick, explosive movement.

The Reds are already indicating he’ll move to center. Shades of Nick Senzel and we know how that didn’t work out. The mix-and-match of the already crowded infield means Terry Francona and his team of managers-in-waiting will have a very active spring. My guess is that the hottest hands get placed in their proper spots, but there’s a very good chance the outfield is learning on the job with a young pitching staff counting on them.