UTK Special 12/9/25
Things Happening At The Winter Meetings (Finally)
I’m not at the Winter Meetings, but things are finally happening there, aside from liver damage and sore feet.
Whenever the Pittsburgh Pirates surface in a major free-agent rumor, the first instinct across the league is not hope and faith, but mockery. “Oh look, the Pirates are mimicking the behavior of a real MLB franchise.” The report that they offered Kyle Schwarber 4/120 fits neatly into that familiar annual ritual where ownership whispers big numbers into the rumor-sphere knowing full well no one will ever need to transfer the funds.
Start with the context. Schwarber is 33, still a middle of the order force, combining elite on-base skills, top-tier power, and postseason credibility that teams still value. Multiple real bidders — Philadelphia, possibly the Mets, maybe his hometown Reds — were at or near $150 million over five years. For the Pirates to act like they were hunting in that weight class requires either sudden enlightenment or the offseason equivalent of borrowing a friend’s Gucci jacket to walk through a hotel lobby.
Nothing about the Pirates suggests enlightenment. Despite some very smart baseball people in the operation, this ownership group treats payroll as a conceptual exercise. They’ve spent years operating with the stated intention of competing someday, always one year away from being one year away. They hoard young talent, preach sustainability, and then pivot to austerity when sustainability demands investment. If they had actually landed Schwarber, he would have immediately represented the biggest commitment of the Bob Nutting era by a comically wide margin. That alone makes the reported offer suspect.
The structure is even more telling. A 4/120 deal at Schwarber’s age is designed to lose. They weren’t higher and shorter, they were “in the ballpark” no pun intended. Pittsburgh hasn’t behaved like a win-now team since Andrew McCutchen’s first MVP conversation. Were they suddenly ready to vault past Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Chicago? Ready to spend nine figures on a DH when they haven’t even spent nine figures on the entire farm system pipeline? Ready to backload a deal into years when Paul Skenes and Jared Jones hit arbitration and payroll would actually need to expand? No chance.
The Pirates’ offer feels like classic cover. Make a phone call. Float a number. Get your name attached to a marquee free agent so you can tell the public “See? We were in on him.” You don’t need to land Schwarber, but look like you tried. It’s not malicious, except to the fan base and the best ballpark in the game, almost empty except every fifth day. They live in the competitive shadows, where optics matter more than outcomes, and they treat large offers like museum exhibits: look, admire, move along.
Schwarber signing with Philadelphia is only partly about comfort. It’s about choosing a team that actually wanted him and wanted to win. The Pirates wanted the appearance of wanting him. There’s a difference and everyone in baseball sees it, which makes landing the next one even harder.
As for Schwarber himself, I don’t hate the deal. I certainly can’t fault The Middles for spending on a player that’s beloved enough to be a storyline on Abbott Elementary. Historically, TTO sluggers age in one of two ways: they either cliff suddenly (Chris Davis, Ryan Howard) or remain productive longer than expected because power and on-base skill persist even as athleticism fades (Nelson Cruz, David Ortiz, Edwin Encarnación, even Barry Bonds). Schwarber profiles firmly in the second bucket.
Why? Because the characteristics that make him valuable - the great eye, the raw power, the simple swing that can miss but doesn’t seem to slump, and no defensive responsibilities - are among the most age-resistant traits in baseball. It’s an insult when we say “old player skills” about an age-23 player, not an age-33 one. Sluggers decline fastest when bat speed erodes or when their value is tied to mobility. Schwarber’s bat speed hasn’t dipped, his underlying metrics (EV, hard-hit percentage, and walk rate) are stable, and Bryce Harper doesn’t need much of the DH time at this stage. Schwarber doesn’t need to “age gracefully” into that role because he’s already there.
Statistically, hitters whose value is OBP + SLG tend to decline around age 35–36, but gradually. The cliff typically arrives for players whose bat-to-ball skill collapses, not the ones who walk, hunt mistakes, and punish them. Schwarber’s chase rate, zone-contact rate, and swing decisions don’t show late-career red flags. Could he crater? Anyone can. But based on comps and skill patterns, a gentle decline is far more likely and his health has largely been good and even when something like the torn ACL happened, he healed quickly and well.
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The Yankees announcing that Gerrit Cole - who had an internal brace reinforced elbow reconstruction done on March 11, 2025 - won’t make it back until June confounds me. There was a time where Tommy John rehab times were coming down - several have come back in nine months - but I can tell you when it tipped back. Matt Harvey was coming back from his when there was a bit of a tiff between Sandy Alderson and Scott Boras. Dr. James Andrews leaned to Harvey not pitching at the end of the season and having a full and normal off-season. That’s what happened and we know the rest of that story.
However, the lesson everyone else seemed to take away is that longer is better. There’s no study that shows this, there’s no evidence that pitchers come back better or healthier, or that the ligament holds up. For internal brace elbows, the numbers at the MLB level are still small. At lower levels, the amount of failures is extremely low, though not that I know of as a published study. (I couldn’t find one, but I’m taking Dr. Jeff Dugas at his word since he’s been doing them the longest.)
Aaron Boone says (above) that Cole threw 6-8 bullpens before deloading. Add in the rehab process of six months and someone please explain why he won’t be ready Opening Day. What is the two month discrepancy that exists if he could throw enough to even need a de-load period?
For other procedures - ankles, knees, everything - the promise of internal bracing is quicker rehabs. The brace goes over the healing ligament and is stronger, period. Once the anchors heal in, locking them into the bone, it can take almost all the load in theory. I’ve questioned surgeons on why they even bother with the grafted or repaired ligament and there’s very technical reasons, most relating to returning the athlete to the most natural state possible, both for it’s own “feel”, but for the idea that surgeries like this aren’t enhancing the athlete, but restoring them.
In baseball, it’s gone the other way, but again, there’s no evidence it helps. We’re missing months of Cole’s career, months the Yankees frankly need and at a time where he will be throwing. He’ll be throwing in Tampa, maybe Trenton, not the Bronx. In pinstripes, but not those. If there’s a doctor, medical staffer, or even a pitching coach out there that wants to explain to me why teams and players aren’t doing everything that can to push the timeline shorter, my email is open.