UTK Special 12/28/24

Arizona Burneing

Harry Anderson once said that a fool and his money are lucky to have even met. In context, he was showing how easy it was to separate a mark from said money using all manner of tricks, like his variant on three card monte which I have marked in the video below.

Best known for Night Court now, Anderson was part of a great generation of magicians like Ricky Jay, Penn & Teller, and Apollo Robbins who made a career out of not just fooling you, but doing it twice while telling you how they were doing it. All of them were fascinating storytellers, which was a big part of the trick.

Which is a long way to get to wondering if Corbin Burnes and his agent, Scott Boras, might someday get a Vegas show telling us how they extracted $210 million from the Arizona Diamondbacks, who for now appear to be on the hook to being the above said fool. I’d like to think I’m wrong about this, but in talks with several sources, none were able to convince me.

Burnes was the top pitcher freely available, though there’s an argument for Roki Sasaki in many ways, but Burnes has been an elite pitcher over the last few seasons, not just good on the mound, but regularly on the mound. If the best ability is durability, Burnes deserves to be above Max Fried and the ‘better stuff but young and fragile’ Sasaki, even as he’s salary limited due to the rulebook.

While contract terms are not fully known, the general terms are pretty straightforward. Burnes agreed to a six year deal at $210 million, or an AAV of $35 million. There is an opt-out after two years, but there’s no further details. While AAV is all that matter for tax purposes in MLB, my guess is that the contract will end up somewhat backloaded.

Burnes, heading into his age-30 season, is therefore nominally signed until age-35 and would be an age-36 free agent. That’s certainly not as prime as an age-30 ace, but if healthy and effective, pitchers like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have gotten huge, if not long, deals well past that age. In fact, Verlander’s likely to get another big deal late in the cycle. Burnes is likely to be age-36 and able to decide where he plays and if his grandkids or great-grandkids will have to work a day in their lives. But at worst, he’s going to have $210 million, minus taxes, fees and air conditioning bills, and that’s not a bad lottery ticket.

The contract, however, really amounts to a two-year deal and a four-year insurance policy. The opt-out gets used if Burnes is good and puts him in position to make decisions at a time when Baseball will be getting a new CBA and perhaps a new rights deal. More money? He’s in position to cash in. Less? He can stay in Arizona another four years and keep collecting checks. The D-Backs are basically betting $140 million that Burnes stays healthy and productive enough to leave.