UTK Special 1/2/24

Notes on Notes on Connectivity

First, the title isn’t an error, but a nod to the book that started the concept for this piece, and much more. I cannot recommend Neil Thiese’s Notes on Complexity highly enough and it’s inspiration for this and more. I’ll also highly suggest listening to this episode of Radiolab, which also highlights Thiese’s work.

Thiese, a pathologist from New York, discovered a new organ, or system in the body, which he called the interstitium. It was missed because for years, no one thought to look. The way pathology was done disguised it and we didn’t have the tools to see it in vivo until recently, with an advanced endoscope. It’s a fluid filled pathway that has four times as much fluid as does the circulatory system that we all know so well.

And that’s the point in the podcast where I started thinking about pitching.

Pitching, like pathology, hasn’t had the tools, until recently, to see things like spin, or for doctors to use small pieces of fiber to rebuild an elbow or knee. What if the interstitium is yet another thing we didn’t know, key to managing inflammation, pain, and energy?

As Dr. Theise notes, the interstitium may well overlay with what the Chinese have been working on with chi for years. Acupuncture and many other Asian medicines, including ayurvedic, are based on ancient knowledge that has largely been ignored or hand waved by Western science. Finding something that may connect the two is huge and offers a lot of pathways for research and for practical application. Pitching doesn’t always wait on publication.

Tools like compression sleeves, percussion guns, and pulsed electrical forces could well be working on this system, but accidentally. An intentional focus on this system could change everything, and I don’t mean that as hyperbole. It’s easy to think about cancer metastasizing and how understanding how an unknown system might affect that (or prevent it). Pitching is not cancer, but I’m not a cancer researcher either.

A brand new series of tubes filled with fluids gives me new hope that there’s answers to energy systems, to recovery, and to even force generation. Do pitchers need more hyaluronic acid in their systems on start days, or to monitor their levels? What could we find if we filled up a pitcher with fluorocein and had them throw? Would it be like those initial stick figures of biomechanics, showing us the basics of what happens with each throw in a way we’ve never seen?

In a world so contentious that one could, if they so chose, have an argument about how the concept of replacement player is incorrect, even a poor construct rather than one rooted in statistics, this new anatomy is something that should make us consider not that we’re right or wrong, but to be more curious. We simply might not know enough and in the absence of that knowledge, we have incomplete solutions that are far from optimized and perhaps, simply wrong.

Most pitching models are not able to calculate force generation, either from the ground or through the acceleration of the arm. No pitching model that I’m aware of can truly account for how the ulnar collateral ligament, which breaks under tension around 34 nm in studies, can handle as much as 120 nm. This most recent study that I’m aware of on the topic gets closer, but even with tools like Springbok, there’s a ways to go.

We’re more sure than ever, but how sure is that? As we head towards the fiftieth anniversary of Frank Jobe’s first Tommy John surgery, the newest variant of the surgery - augmented reconstruction - is showing success rates in the 90’s with return times as low as 3.8 months. (Go ahead, read the study.) Instead of missing a season, pitchers with this common injury might miss half a season, or even come back over the off-season and miss nary a game. It’s not only plausible, it’s possible right now. We’ve seen ankle and knee returns come down quickly in other sports, so why is Shohei Ohtani not pitching by the long end of that study’s expectations - which would be about the All Star break?!

In a world where we know more and more, I feel sure about less and less. And I feel pretty good about that somehow.

On the podcast, the reporter talks about how life may also be like the interstitium. Jenn Brandel discusses how she’s between journalism, tech, and the world. You can imagine how I feel connected to that. For years, I was used to saying “I’m a sportswriter.” The world hasn’t caught up to understanding Substack like they did ESPN, but saying “I’m the CEO of a mental testing company for sports” is still odd.

It reminded me to share one of my techniques with you, one that many find both fascinating and odd. For years, I’ve had two sets of cards on my desk. One is called Oblique Strategies and was invented by Brian Eno, the musician. They’re creative triggers more than tarot cards and I’ve found them endlessly helpful, even if I can’t explain them to the few people that have watched me shuffle them and flip one up randomly. It wouldn’t surprise me if what we learn about the interstitium ends up mirroring these cards, in that they’re likely a trigger, a pathway, to so much more.

***

Chris Sale was traded to the Braves in return for Vaughn Grissom. Grissom was another of their young stars just a few years ago, but couldn’t find a consistent spot in Atlanta’s talented and young lineup. At 22, he shouldn’t have as much issue finding a spot and at worst, becomes an outfielder. There’s upside here which is a nice return for Sale.

Sale, as readers of UTK, will be much better known. He’s provided us with much content and at age-37 has one more year locked on his deal and the Sox will pay over half his salary, in part to get someone as good as Grissom. When healthy, Sale has shown he has stuff. He’s had some quirky injuries - a stress fracture in his scapula, a comebacker that broke his pinky finger, and a wrist fracture from falling off a bike - so the health concerns of late seem worse than they are. I wouldn’t spot him for more than 100 innings, but 150 isn’t outrageous on the upper end.

The Braves have the depth to gamble. They have a legit ten-deep starter pool, with the top four locked in, even after trading away Michael Soroka. Ian Anderson should be back from elbow surgery by mid-year at the latest, adding to that. Sale, if he doesn’t pitch an inning for the Braves, doesn’t hurt them. If he’s healthy, he’s their five and a clear upgrade over using Reynaldo Lopez in the rotation or seeing if Allan Winans can take a step up. Between Charlie Morton and Sale, there’s a chance for 200 good innings from advanced age starters and if they get that many, they’re likely good innings.

It’s yet another smart move by the Braves, measuring risk and reward as well as anyone while also being bold enough to make moves that others seem to hesitate on. I’ll have more on Sale soon.

***

Dr. James Andrews retired from surgery and had a big party in Birmingham. I could write a book - and someone should - about his work, but that’s a task for another day. Right now, I’ll remind anyone from Cooperstown that Andrews, along with Frank Jobe, Bob Kerlan, Lew Yocum, and a few more would be a good start on the medical wing of the Hall. Is John Smoltz, Paul Molitor, Mariano Rivera, or Roger Clemens* in there without his work? ESPN once said his work was worth over a billion dollars in salary and that was a decade ago and not adjusted for hyperinflation.

Heck, go one further and say that without his work, Jeff Dugas doesn’t work on InternalBrace, that Keith Meister doesn’t get his work out there, or that Neal ElAttrache - admittedly a student of Jobe and Yocum, but who was introduced to me and many by Andrews via his ASMI appearances - is the super surgeon trusted by many?

So a cheers to Dr. Andrews. He’s earned his retirement, and a plaque (and a bust.)

(*Yes, I know.)