UTK Special 12/22/25
Murakami Wa Gatu
Travis Sawchik and the boys at Driveline do a detailed look at an interesting question: Can you build another Nolan Ryan? Simplest answer is no, but can a data-driven resiliency be built? Absolutely. Ben Hansen and I did an early pass at this back when Driveline Pulse was Motus and it was clear almost a decade ago that the answer was yes. With even more modern tools and more data, it’s even clearer, leaving us to question why no one has. In that same near-decade since we did that piece, workload has gone hard the other way, while rehab times have gone up. Much, much more on this soon, but read that piece and come back. I’ll wait.
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My thought had been, over the last couple weeks, that aside from the bold-move deals and trades we’ve seen, the one motive force would be the ticking clock on Munetaka Murukami. The slugger fits the needs of a lot of teams and would be a tell on who thought they’d be able to get Alex Bregman or the couple Plan B players that are out there. In signing a short term deal with the White Sox at a below market rate, Murukami didn’t move a thing.
If there’s any lesson we get here, it’s that Justin Ishbia might be pushing to spend some of the money he’s invested in the White Sox to quit being quite so bad a bit quicker than the current build. It’s not that the Sox don’t have some assets, but Murukami doesn’t really fit with any of them. Murukami’s not a great defensive 3B, but he can play there. Well, so can half their prospects. Assuming Chase Meidroth is now a 2B, that puts a roadblock in front of Sam Antonacci and Kyle Lodise. That’s likely a ‘27 problem and Murukami’s is only a two-year deal.
If Murukami’s at first, or even DH, there’s still a lot of decisions to be made about which of the parts goes best together for what Will Venable wants to do on field and what the front office (and ownership) want to do over the next two years. That means that, at best, Murukami is a bridge. Maybe the White Sox can keep him around, but if he’s just good, he’ll be looking at a much bigger payday next time around.
If the Sox can flip Luis Robert - something they havent been able to do to this point, even to the point of just rumors - they could accelerate this more. The kind of “fit” trade that the Astros, Rays, and Pirates just made shows the market isn’t hot on big dollar guys, especially ones that haven’t been durable the past few seasons. He becomes a holding pattern for Braden Montgomery’s coming emergence and the hope that someone needs to make an emergency deal like the Astros did with Carlos Correa.
Bregman’s market remains on hold and will through the holidays. Signing in January is just fine and that market was always going to be small, especially if the Yankees continue to not do very much. One of Bregman or Bo Bichette will sign first and it seems a bit of overlap and a bit of “set the market for me” is in play there.
There’s still a few more postings to deal with, but Tatsuya Imai has until January 2 to be signed while the others have until the 4th or 5th, depending on source. (I think the 4th.) It also raises the question of why other teams with similar needs didn’t go to the same level with Murukami. It’s fine if the Red Sox couldn’t commit and valued Bregman higher, but if they miss on both? Murukami at $40m with posting fee shouldn’t have stopped them, nor the Cubs, from matching.
On whether the new money might help the White Sox now remains to be seen. They’re not a Bregman or any one player away from contention, but would Imai be a big help to them? Absolutely, as would any pitcher that could go behind Noah Schultz and whatever four other guys are their rotation right now. After looking, I’m reminded they signed Anthony Kay, the latest Japanese boomerang, and those can work. Adding Imai could make things very interesting, especially in light of the Bears stadium situation getting really weird, which could open things back up for a new Sox park.
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On the pitching side, the Shane Baz deal seems like a very typical Rays deal and a very typical Orioles deal. Both could be right if this is a win-win fit deal. However, beyond that, there’s not much movement. Part of that is the belief that Tarik Skubal will move. The Tigers should be the favorites in the AL Central with Skubal at the top, but without him? Contenders, especially if there’s pitching in the return, but hardly favorites.
There’s rumblings that the Giants are waking up a bit in terms of spending power, with Buster Posey pushing a win-now mentality. Getting Skubal would be costly and there’s no guarantee they could sign him long term, but they have the prospects to risk and pitching depth to work from as well. Bryce Eldridge is one of those players scouts differ on, so it depends on where the Tigers are on him, or if the Giants would include him. For Skubal, everyone should be on the table, especially if the power isn’t projecting as well as expected on Eldridge.
The team that’s made sense to me is the Mariners. They’re thick with pitching and Jerry DiPoto can be creative. Imagine a deal of two major league ready players - say George Kirby and Bryan Woo - plus a prospect or too like Jurrangelo Cijntjie or Felnin Celestin - and both sides come out ahead, or at least there’s scenarios where both do. The Tigers would get depth and a couple of controllable years while the M’s get an ace with some hometown love and a year to convince him to stay home.
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Willson Contreras to the Red Sox should surprise no one. Chaim Bloom and the Sox front office still speak the same language and the Sox can use a solid hitter, especially when the Cards are eating part of the contract. Smart play and one that likely points to more deals coming - Brendan Donovan is a matter of time, Nolan Arenado still needs the right fit, and I’d like to see even more, to the point of Masyn Winn being available. I’m not there and I would be so aggressive that no team would actually hire me for even consulting on these kind of deals, but, hey, I’ll tell you that no one’s off limits.
Hunter Dobbins and Dick Fitts should be 2/5ths of the Cards rotation next year if all goes well and Contreras was going to be 0/5ths of the catcher solution. 1B? DH? All of those can be solved. Picking up Yhoiker Fajardo, an age-19 Venezuelan pitcher who aced at A-ball, is nice, but this is more salary dump than anything else. Dobbins and Fitts together probably equal Sonny Gray and figuring out who plays where in both Boston and St Louis’ infield is going to be a spring pastime.