UTK Special 12/22/23

The Yamamoto Deal

The Dodgers are spending like Chelsea.

(Yes, I know.)

With the deal for Yoshinobu Yamamoto* done, a quick auction with a quick and not unexpected results, the Dodgers have now “spent” over a billion dollars while most teams have done nothing. The Red Sox, Mets, and Giants are left holding a big bag of money that no one seems to want to take and the list of people to take it is getting shorter.

*I’m a big advocate for nicknames and while Yamamoto needs one, I’m going to go with “YY” in the short term.

YY is a big upgrade to the Dodgers and a needed move even, as I detailed when the Tyler Glasnow trade happened. Several of you pointed out one flaw in my analysis - I did forget that Walker Buehler is a free agent after the ‘24 season and shouldn’t have been counted on for the ‘25 rotation. Even if we assume the Dodgers will, at some point, need to dial back spending, it might not be with Buehler. Even if he were to leave, the return of Shohei Ohtani (Pitcher Version) makes up for the loss, though it hurts depth.

It’s the depth that’s my worry. The Dodgers in ‘23 had eight pitchers with 10 or more starts, and another nine that got at least one start. It’s hard to imagine any team getting through the season with less than eight, though the Blue Jays did just that. It’s certainly possible, but the number of injuries that the Dodgers have dealt with over the last decade makes a sudden turnaround unlikely. Even minor injuries - obliques, hamstrings, blisters - throw off the best of plans.

Speaking of plans, while the Dodgers haven’t won anything with this current roster, do we have to start talking about Andrew Friedman for the Hall of Fame? We’re in the golden era of GMs (actual titles aside) and if the Dodgers win another couple titles, does Friedman go up with Theo Epstein, Brian Cashman, Dave Dombrowski, and even Billy Beane as Cooperstown candidates? I think so.

YY’s deal has opt-outs, per Jeff Passan, and that makes sense given the value. Ken Rosenthal reports its after years six and eight. It’s protection in case he has elbow issues, as so many Japanese pitchers do when they come over, but it’s hard to imagine that he won’t be good enough to have upside when the opt-outs hit. It also gives the Dodgers some off-ramps in case a more punitive luxury tax in the next CBA happens.

With the timing of the six year opt out, we’re getting our first look at what young pitchers would be getting if there wasn’t a draft. Joe Sheehan made this point, but Paul Skenes has to be standing and pointing at this. (Which reminds me, I hear Skenes is raking in endorsement offers, something you normally don’t see with a rookie or a Pirate, but he’s not a normal player either.)

There’s breakdowns all over the net on YY’s stuff, mechanics, and projections. I’ll save you the time of reading mine, but everything is very positive. Yamamoto is one of the best Japanese pitchers ever, and he’s coming over in his prime. With Ohtani alongside, I’ll be surprised if the Dodgers don’t add a full time Japanese broadcast crew to the English and Spanish booths. I don’t know the Japanese economy, but I can imagine the Dodgers are going to own that market in a way we haven’t seen since the very early days of Nomo-Mania.

Of course, all you have to do is look a little south, or a lot east, to see that spending money doesn’t guarantee anything. It’s easy to see where this doesn’t work - YY gets hurt, Glasnow breaks down, another pitcher gets TJ, Mookie Betts has an off year or gets wiped out on a double play. The Rangers spent money to win, the Diamondbacks didn’t, but they were both in the World Series.

I’m terrible at World Series picks, but last year was pretty easy. I expected a rematch - Phillies/Astros - and I was pretty close. It’s hard to imagine the D-Backs beating the Dodgers again, but the playoffs aren’t even a crapshoot with 12 teams. They’re a random number generator with a TV deal, all subject to a pitcher like Jordan Montgomery getting hot and breaking bets. Even Walter and Boehly can’t buy their way through the playoffs.

Then again, a playoff rotation of Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Buehler might just burn through the tournament. They’re just as likely to get hot as a Montgomery or Zac Gallen, with better offensive support. I don’t think the Dodgers are a foregone conclusion to win the division, the league, or the hunk of metal, but they certainly have the tools and the advantages to do all three, for years to come.

***

On the other side of the ledger from the Dodgers and their owners, the Pirates look on. Dejan Kovacevic, the longtime sportswriter, immediately called for a salary cap, which is precisely the wrong thing to do. “Bottom Line Bob” Nutting is making about $40m a year in profit on the Pirates, siphoning off from the Dodgers and even more so now. In fact, Nutting’s team might be more profitable now that the Dodgers will be putting more money in the pot.

It’s not that Nutting can’t spend on the Pirates. In fact, he sold off one of his key assets, the Seven Springs ski resort, late last year to Vail Resorts. The price? $118m from his original 2006 investment of $7m. His VC fund sold VSIN to Draft Kings, among other exits. Nice bottom line, but where’s he spending the money? He could flip the Pirates easily, especially with Skenes coming this year and another high draft pick on the way. (Joe Doyle has the Pirates taking a high school hitter, who wouldn’t be quick to the majors even if good.) While Mark Cuban likely wouldn’t be approved for ownership in MLB, he’s pretended to be interested in buying the Pirates before.

Sources tell me there’s at least three people who are not only interested, but have made inquiries about the Pirates over the last few years. Nutting hasn’t entertained selling, but if he did, Thomas Tull would be at the top of the list. He sold Legendary Entertainment for $3.5B and now invests from a Pittsburgh base. Add Jared “Rook” Isaacman (who’s going to be busy for the next couple years) and Ed Stack as possibilities, but behind Tull’s big stack. (Tull is a small minority owner in the Steelers as well, so it’s assumed he’d easily clear MLB vetting.)

It’s not just the Pirates who have stood pat. Across the league, uncertainty about TV money is holding back several teams, while others just aren’t spending. It’s a late developing market and with Ohtani and Yamamoto off the board, names like Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger should be quick Plan B signings. However, there’s going to be some teams left behind and fans don’t like Plan C and D signings, even if they’re often better values.

The Pirates could spend, but haven’t, and even penalties and watchdog rules haven’t changed that bottom line. As long as Nutting and others like him can keep getting checks, why would they ever sell that golden goose? Rather than a cap/floor, MLB owners should focus on nudging the cheapskates out the door. Private equity ownership is going to functionally set a cap sooner than we know.