UTK Special 12/19/24

Mr Burnes and Mr Rubenstein

Trying something here. Paid subscribers get this piece a day ahead of time, rather than paywalling part of the content. I feel like that’s a better way for pieces like this to work. You tell me.

Corbin Burnes has two suitors in the Giants and the Blue Jays, both of whom feel like hungry, frustrated teams. Their collective near-misses in free agency over the past few seasons — be it Aaron Judge staying in the Bronx or Shohei Ohtani choosing the Dodgers — have left their front offices desperate to land an impact player. TV money, or lack thereof, has kept some of baseball’s biggest spenders cautious, but Burnes represents a different equation. He’s a durable ace in an increasingly fragile market. That fact alone, paired with the structural urgency for both San Francisco and Toronto, makes this a battle worth watching.

At 30, Burnes sits at the nexus of durability and dread. Every pitcher feels like a ticking clock, no matter how pristine their mechanics or how clean their medical records. Burnes has been one of the sport’s surest bets — 757 regular season innings since 2021, a Cy Young award, and a fastball/cutter combo that has baffled hitters for years. He’s a dream pitcher for contenders trying to solidify a rotation. But there’s a note of caution here, and it comes in the form of his comps.

Shane Bieber, Lance Lynn, Noah Syndergaard, Adam Wainwright, and the oddball Kyle Hendricks form a diverse mix of pitcher archetypes Burnes mirrors. Bieber, like Burnes, was once the pinnacle of rotation strength before the elbow broke down and while he’s likely to come back an ace, that hasn’t happened yet and man, could the Guardians have used him last year. Syndergaard had the other-worldly stuff but was torn down by injury after injury. Lynn has been durable but inconsistent. Wainwright survived Tommy John surgery to become a Cardinals stalwart, while Hendricks remains the reliable changeup artist defying modern power-pitching trends. Burnes is somewhere in between these names: a workhorse with elite stuff, but history tells us that all pitchers are healthy until they aren’t.

Tommy John surgery has already claimed three of the five names in his group, and it’s tempting to wonder whether Burnes can stay ahead of that curve. His innings load over the past three seasons has been reasonable — around 190 per year — but those totals rarely tell the full story. Burnes is throwing stressful innings, battling pitch counts deep into games and leveraging a cutter that places heavy demands on his arm. Modern biomechanics teach us that stress comes from more than just volume. It’s torque, repeatability, velocity — metrics that Burnes’ pitch profile has so far withstood. And yet, it’s easy to hear the faint echoes of those cautionary tales.

San Francisco and Toronto likely know this. They also know that Burnes represents a golden opportunity. For the Giants, it’s a chance to pair him with Logan Webb, creating a 1-2 punch that mirrors the kind of rotations they’ve had during championship runs. Webb is the reliable sinker maestro, and Burnes would be the overpowering counterpart. With pitching becoming more modular and dependent on innings distribution, there’s less emphasis on true “aces,” but Burnes is still one of them. He is an innings sponge with the ability to dominate — and that matters in October.

Toronto is arguably more desperate. They’ve hit the playoff wall two years in a row, running into rotation questions and injuries. Kevin Gausman has been excellent, but there’s been inconsistency around him. Alek Manoah’s collapse in 2023 was dramatic enough to necessitate a reset, and the Jays can’t afford to waste the primes of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Burnes would be their stabilizer, a pitcher capable of 6-7 strong innings every five days in the rugged AL East. The Blue Jays, as much as any team, need the reliability Burnes offers.

So why is a pitcher like Burnes, with all his upside, still available? Part of the answer lies in baseball’s new financial climate. Teams that once threw $300 million contracts around like party favors have been more hesitant. The Red Sox, who could’ve been a major player here, have already stepped out of the race. Whether that’s a reflection of Craig Breslow’s measured approach or lingering ownership hesitation, Boston’s absence has left the Giants and Jays in pole position.

Then there’s the question of the Baltimore Orioles. Burnes is exactly the kind of player the Orioles should be pursuing, especially given their young core’s potential window. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Jackson Holliday are going to get expensive fast, and the Orioles have done little to show they’re ready to spend proactively. New ownership was supposed to change this dynamic, but Mike Elias has, so far, chosen caution over aggression. One trade for Burnes might make sense as a short-term boost, but it doesn’t answer the bigger question: What happens when all that homegrown talent demands extensions? If the Orioles aren’t willing to spend now, what’s going to change?

David Rubenstein’s arrival as the new owner of the Baltimore Orioles was supposed to signal a shift — a billionaire financier stepping in to push the team into a new era of competitiveness. Yet so far, Rubenstein’s actions have been quieter than expected, and the question of whether he’s truly ready to spend remains unanswered. Owning a baseball team isn’t just about wealth; it’s about commitment, and Orioles fans have seen this story before — optimistic headlines followed by familiar thriftiness.

Rubenstein’s vast resources could transform the franchise into a perennial contender, but Mike Elias’ conservative approach to free agency suggests either hesitation from ownership or an unwillingness to deviate from a development-first philosophy. Is Rubenstein playing the long game, or is he simply unwilling to spend big in a market that demands boldness to win? As the young Orioles core approaches its payday, Rubenstein’s willingness to invest will define whether Baltimore’s golden window remains open or slams shut before it ever fully opens.

These same dynamics ripple across the league. Front offices are increasingly risk-averse, reluctant to hand out massive contracts to pitchers with “ticking time bomb” arms. But this is what makes Burnes such a fascinating case. He doesn’t fit neatly into the usual risk models. He’s not Max Scherzer, pitching on the wrong side of 35. He’s not Jacob deGrom, whose injury history came with glaring red flags. Burnes is squarely in his prime. His mechanics are clean, his workload has been reasonable, and his performance has been elite.

Still, any long-term deal for a pitcher is a gamble, and teams know it. Burnes’ comps are reminders of how quickly the landscape can change. For every Wainwright who bounces back, there’s a Syndergaard, a pitcher whose name suddenly feels out of place in the conversation. The question for the Giants and Jays isn’t just whether Burnes is worth the money today — it’s whether they believe he can hold up over the life of the contract.

The answer might come down to necessity. The Giants need Burnes because they’ve missed on everyone else. The Jays need him because their timeline is closing fast. In a market where risk aversion and rights uncertainty has slowed the pace of spending, these two teams feel like outliers. They’re ready to bet on Burnes not just as a pitcher, but as a franchise centerpiece. It’s a bet that comes with all the usual pitfalls—velocity loss, elbow strain, the inevitability of pitching fragility—but it’s one worth taking. Because if Burnes is that rare durable ace, he’s the kind of player that changes everything.

For now, the clock ticks. Burnes’ next destination will shape more than just one rotation; it might determine the trajectory of an entire franchise. For the Giants and Jays, there’s no time to hesitate. If Burnes is the answer, they can’t afford to miss.