UTK Special 12/16/20

Next MLB GM List 2020

With the hiring of Jared Porter by the Mets, Perry Minasian by the Angels, Kim Ng by the Marlins, Nick Krall by the Reds, Dave Dombrowski by the Phillies, and Chris Young by the Rangers, there’s a batch of new general managers in baseball. The title may be confusing since in some organizations, the GM is not the “shot caller”. That’s not to say someone like Thad Levine or Brian O’Halloran is not valuable, but the title and the power are a bit different in modern baseball, and that’s without even factoring in ownership.

Five of thirty GM slots turned over this season and Ng’s historic hire put into place the issue that baseball has with minority and female hires. That added a level of complexity to my latest “Next GM List”, something I’ve been doing for almost twenty years* with darn good results.

I will admit that in the past, I never considered asking about female or minority candidates, though they were always included. I should have noticed when it was one or two, or always the same people. These weren’t tokens, but baseball was making a hard shift from ex-players to Ivy Leaguers, but they were all still largely white men.

And they still are. This year, I asked the more than forty people I consulted on this for suggestions to include at least one minority or female candidate and several sheepishly admitted they didn’t have one, or they said the same well-known names. “That’s on me,” said one AGM, “but it takes years for anyone to bubble up and establish themselves. We should have been doing this ten years ago, but it will take ten more to make it better. Look at how long the people on my list have been at this. Interns out of college, ten years of working their way up, and then they interview three or four times. Even a boy wonder like Chaim Bloom did exactly that.”

This is true, but I went back and spoke with several people inside baseball, including two people in ownership, and asked whether bringing in someone from outside baseball could work. Most disagreed, saying that working their way up and making the connections within the game was a key part of what they were looking for. “When we last interviewed,” said one team managing partner, “we wanted someone who was well rounded, who knew scouting and analysis, who had people skills to handle players and the media, who really knew the game. Are there people out there like that who aren’t currently in baseball? Probably, but they don’t know the quirks of the game.”

I disagree with this. Connections come quickly in baseball. There’s 30 GMs and a handful more of people a new GM would need to get to know. While an Ng or Minasian, people who have been around the game 30 years or more and yet still young, have an advantage at the start, someone coming from corporate America or from a non-traditional path wouldn’t be shunned.

An front office type said that the current path of writers going to the front office might be the best path. “There are writers in tons of front offices now, voices heard,” he explained, “and while there’s not a name off the top of my head, there are some great women writers and broadcasters who are probably the equal. They’d be better off by getting into a position inside and I’m going to go suggest it to my boss now.”

The issue will remain one and while there are two women on the following list and three minorities, there should and could be more. I’m strongly in favor of doing more than a Rooney Rule and pushing for more inclusion at the lower levels, where the best people, regardless of gender, color, race, religion, or anything else come up. These ten are solid candidates, regardless of any other considerations, and I expect you’ll see these names very soon, perhaps with your favorite team. They are listed in order of mentioned by the pool of people I spoke with:

Billy Owens
Age 49 … Born in San Jose, California …A ttended the University of Arizona, where he played both baseball and football … Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles, 3rd Round 1992 … Played 7 seasons of minor league baseball (made it to AAA) with the Orioles organization, his last 2 of those with Houston org … Became A’s minor league hitting coach in 1999 for Southern Oregon (1999), Vancouver (2000-2001), and Arizona (2002-2003) … Performed hitting coach duties while also scouting … Promoted to East Coast Scouting Coordinator in 2003 …. Owens is currently Assistant General Manager, a position he’s held for 2 years … Previous position was Director of Player Personnel, which he held for 12 years.

If there was a position open this year in baseball, Billy Owens either interviewed for it or was mentioned for it. Owens is probably the #1 prospect and it’s universally acknowledged around the league and when people didn’t explicitly mention him, it was because they just assumed others had. “That one’s automatic,” said one baseball ops staffer. “We’re just all stumped that no one hired him, especially this year.”

Part of the reason Owens didn’t take a job - and more than one suggest he was offered more than one - is the loyalty many feel in Oakland. With Billy Beane now exiting, longtime GM David Forst is finally getting the notices he’s deserved. “Forst has built up such a strong staff that it takes something special for someone to leave. Farhad [Zaidi] didn’t leave until he got a no-brainer offer from the Dodgers. Eric [Kubota] and Keith [Lieppman] were in … Moneyball, for Christ’s sake, and they’re still there!” said one GM.

One thing mentioned regularly about Owens is that structure isn’t going to be an issue. “He’s like Forst in that way,” one front office type in the A’s division explained. “He doesn’t need a lot of credit, so he’d work for someone and do the work. That’s an issue as we’ve gotten into more corporate structures. Billy has confidence, not a big ego.”

Jason Paré
Age 35 … Born in Providence, Rhode Island…Graduated from Yale University in 2007 … Jason Pare was hired by Cleveland in 2007 as a baseball research and analysis intern. He held this position for over a year before being promoted to Baseball analytics analyst, then Baseball Operations Assistant … In 2013, Alex Anthopoulos brought Pare to the Blue Jays, where he was Baseball Operations Analyst … hired away to be Senior Director of Baseball Analytics with the Miami Marlins … In late 2017, Anthopoulos hired Pare again, this time with the Atlanta Braves, to be his Assistant General Manager, Research and Development.

Pare was mentioned for both the Angels and Mets jobs early in the process, but get used to hearing his name as the first off the board when a team is looking for an analytics-first GM. That’s not to say that Pare is analytics-only - far from it, despite his start at Baseball Prospectus and then with Cleveland under uber-stathead Keith Woolner. Stops in Oakland, Toronto, and Miami followed as Pare took steps up to be the lead guy on the stats side. His shift to Atlanta opened him up to more of the operation

Pare could follow several other Prospectus writers to the top and that’s an increasingly viable path to get into front offices. His work goes as far back as Yale and as you can see in this piece, he may be known as a numbers guy, but the passion for the game goes deeper. Of course, the numbers-first focus is going to make some organizations think he’s not well rounded or well spoken. Interviews will clear that up and Pare is reportedly doing more than just the stats for the Braves, which as they continue to win will only help. Perry Minasian’s ascendance to the GM slot will also put some focus there, especially if the Angels can win for once.

Pare is just 35, but is heading into his 15th year inside baseball. Again, that’s not an uncommon path, but it’s allowed him to cross paths with many inside of baseball in all sorts of positions. Pare finished scout school, for those out there that might see him as too stat-heavy on his resume, and has the contacts inside the game to fill out a staff behind him to paper over any weaknesses, real or perceived.

Jean Afterman
Born in San Francisco, California … Obtained her bachelors degree in art history from Cal Berkeley, and her law degree from the University of San Francisco … Jean Afterman began her career practicing law and representing baseball players as an agent. She specialized in arbitration cases and was general counsel at KDN Sports, where she handled business and legal affairs for Japanese stars Hideo Nomo and Hideki Irabu. It was the work she did with agent Don Nomura in the early 1990’s, handling a dispute over baseball card rights for Japanese players, exposing loopholes in the system, which eventually led to the current posting system that the MLB has used since 1999 ... In 2001, she became the second female to hold a major front office position in Major League Baseball when she replaced Kim Ng as Assistant General Manager of the Yankees. Afterman has held this title for nearly 20 years, adding Senior Vice President to her title in 2012.

A lot of people suggested Jean Afterman, one of the “OG” women in baseball and the longtime AGM of the Yankees, but just as many suggested she’d never leave the Yankees. I’m not sure that’s true, but more than one of the people I spoke with suggested that Brian Cashman isn’t going to be the GM of the Yankees forever and that if he stepped aside or did the popular step up, assuming Lonn Trust is not in fact immortal, that Afterman would be the no-brainer candidate.

“Brian steps aside, I think Jean steps in, no doubt,” said one AL GM. “Some of it is symbolism, but I also think that the Yankees value consistency and continuity, as weird as that is to say.” While many remember the George Steinbrenner days where people were hired and fired at the owner’s whim, it’s anything but that now. Cashman has been GM almost two decades and he’s had three managers in that span.

Afterman’s long been the contract guru for the Yankees and when you think about the type of contracts that she’s dealt with over the years, plus the agents she negotiated with, that’s a pretty good place to start. One agent said “she’s the easiest person to deal with on a hard contract.” While Afterman hasn’t been high profile, she’d have no issues dealing with the media. She’s been doing it for years, just quietly or, in many cases, off the record.

The only knock anyone had on Afterman is that she’s unlikely to be a GM anywhere else. “Why would she leave?” one asked. “She could, but she won’t. I’m not sure if she ever interviewed anywhere else.” Afterman is also a remote employee, moving to California in 2019, which might have been a real complication before COVID made everyone remote.

Bobby Heck
Age 54 … Attended Broward Community College, graduated from Florida International University … Received masters in sports and fitness administration/management from St. Thomas University … Heck played minor league ball (catcher) with the Oakland Athletics in 1988-89 … Began his career as an area scout with the Texas Rangers (1995-1999) … hired by Milwaukee Brewers (2000-2007) to be eastern scouting supervisor … Joined Houston Astros in 2007 as Director of Amateur Scouting, serving in that capacity till 2012, when he was hired by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays as a Special Assignment Scout … In 2015 he was promoted to Special Assistant to the General Manager, his current job.

“He built the Astros,” is a quote I heard not once, not twice, but three times by separate people, which isn’t what Jeff Luhnow would like to hear, I’m sure. Heck’s work with the Astros was pivotal to some of their drafts during the down years and much of his notice comes from his ability to find the kind of talent that turns into major league stars.

Even the criticism of ‘easy picks’ is easy to pick off. “Sure, he had high picks, but tell me how many 1-1 guys are busts?” asked one scouting director. “Top ten guys? [Heck] didn’t miss when the entire organization was basically counting on building around those picks. He passed on [Mark] Appel, he passed on [Albert] Almora, and look at the rest of the picks from that year. Zunino’s useful. Fried finally stayed healthy. Only seven of those guys in the first round made it and he got the best one, which is what you’re supposed to do.”

George Spring, Carlos Correa, even Mike Foltyniewicz is a pretty good run of picks in the first round. After Heck was dismissed, the Astros didn’t pass on Appel the next time, or Brady Aiken the following year, and we know how those turned out.

Heck has continued his solid work with the Rays, where he’s assigned to augment the scouting process and find the kind of diamonds in the rough that the Rays are known for. The biggest question many have for Heck is how he would deal with the pressure of the media. Heck is outspoken and honest, which could make him a tougher fit for a harsh market or one that’s grown used to the corporate soft-shoe approach.

Amiel Sawdaye
Age 43 … Born Baltimore, Maryland … Graduated from the University of Maryland … Sawdaye began his baseball career in 2002 as a Baseball Operations Intern … In 2004 he was promoted to Scouting Assistant … In 2005, he became Assistant Director of Amateur Scouting … in 2009 he became Vice President of Amateur and International Scouting … In this role he drafted Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benitendi, and 2018 MVP Mookie Betts … After 15 years in Boston, Sawdaye joined the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2016 where he continues to serve as Senior Vice President and Assistant General Manager.

Considered strongly for the Mets GM slot, Amiel Sawdaye is a strong AGM for the Diamondbacks who many say has a voice in operations under Mike Hazen’s collaborative front office that has spawned several top front office types in the past couple years, including Jared Porter.

Sawdaye started with the Red Sox in scouting and is part of the Epstein/Cherington front office tree, which has many, many branches. His drafts included Mookie Betts, which is probably enough to get interviews right there. I mean look at this quote from a SoxProspects interview in 2011:

“MH: It was reported elsewhere that the decision to up your offer to Mookie Betts happened at the last minute after Golson turned the team down. Can you shed any light on that? And what did you see out of Betts that made him worth the fairly sizable bonus?

AS: Mookie was a player that we spent a considerable amount of time scouting this spring and summer. His bonus and Golson’s offer were independent of each other. We really liked Mookie and were hoping that he wanted to play pro baseball. He is a very athletic shortstop with the ability to become a plus defender. By showcasing his advanced approach, spray hitter, and plus speed, it’s easy to see why many scouts considered him a top of the order hitter. Mookie was recruited for baseball and basketball, and his true athleticism is very evident on the diamond.”

That’s wizardry right there, scouting style. Of course, GMs today can get knocked for being too much of one side of the so-called debate, but Sawdaye has a degree in “decision systems”, so the numbers side isn’t beyond him. Having come up in the Red Sox organization is also a strength, given how many top minds they’ve had inside and that have gone out around the game.

Dan Kantrovitz
Age 42 … Born in St. Louis, Missouri … Attended Brown University, where he played shortstop, received his masters degree from Harvard in 2009 … Drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2001, round 25…Played 1 year of rookie ball before retiring … In 2012, Kantrovitz was made Director of Scouting (held position for 3 years till December 2014) … Hired by Oakland Athletics in 2015 as Assistant to General Manager (held position for 5 years Nov. 19) … In 2019 was hired by Chicago as Vice President of Scouting.

Speaking of Epstein descendants, while Theo is exiting Chicago, his people are still there and in charge, behind Jed Hoyer. Hired away from the Athletics, Kantrovitz has taken over the scouting side and continued the success he had with the A’s and before that, with the Cardinals. He’s had huge success on the pitching side, drafting Michael Wacha and Jack Flaherty for the Cards, then ran the analytics side for the A’s before coming back to scouting for the Cubs.

Yes, it’s a bit of resume whiplash, but in baseball, that “well rounded” look is one that teams value. It’s hard to say how there’s any weakness in Kantrovitz’s resume, starting from his Brown degree on up. Add in the connections he’s made across four successful teams and you can see why he is so highly considered around the game.

That strength means Kantrovitz can pick and choose some. He’s turned down the chance to interview at least twice and with some question about whether Jed Hoyer will stay with the current structure in the Cubs’ front office, there’s certainly room for Kantrovitz and other highly regarded people like Jason McLeod, Bobby Basham, and Craig Breslow to move up or around.

Denard Span
Age 36 … Born in Tampa, Florida … Attended Catholic High School in Tampa … Drafted 1st round (20th overall) by Minnesota … The only former major leaguer on this list, Span left baseball after 2018 when he didn’t receive a contract offer to his liking … Span’s begun the second phase of his baseball career working as a Special Assistant in Baseball Operations for the Tampa Bay Rays.

It’s still strange to say that someone grew up watching the Rays as a kid, and weirder still to know that person had a ten year career as a major leaguer. Denard Span’s playing career ended in 2018, but he’s immediately shot through the ranks to become one of the few ex-players that really get a hard look, a big change from just twenty years ago, when it was a near must-have.

Span is yet another Tampa Bay Rays front office member, working as a special assistant alongside Heck. One source called this gig a “feet wetting” experience for Span to try and figure out what direction he wants to go inside baseball. Some feel he’ll move up the chain in a front office while others think he could shift to coaching or scouting, which led one person to compare him to another who took all those paths: “He’s got the skill set of an AJ Hinch.” Add in Span’s well-known likability and clubhouse chemistry, plus the knowledge of what it takes to be a successful ballplayer, gives him instant credibility around the league.

“He played for a bunch of clubs, knows a lot of the current players,” said one front office type, “and while that seems to be more important for managing, like a [Kevin] Cash or [David Ross] Rossy, I think it would help in terms of putting the right team together for a manager.” Another person I spoke with worked with Span in the past, when he was a player. “He can do anything he wants. For someone like that, it comes down to the tradeoffs.”

Span does have a young family, with his wife, a former Olympic hockey player, and runs a foundation that helps single-parent families, as well as being active in the Tampa community he grew up in. “Of course Span could be a GM,” one said, “but he’d probably be a better mayor.”

Jessica Mendoza
Born in Camarillo, California … Graduated from Stanford University in 2002 with a bachelors in American Studies…Obtained her Masters from Stanford in Social Sciences and Education in 2003 … Two Olympic medals in softball, Gold in 04, Silver in 08 … Began working for ESPN in 2014 as a Baseball Tonight reporter … On Aug. 24, 2015, became the first woman to broadcast an MLB game for ESPN … Joined the Sunday Night Baseball broadcast booth in 2016 … In 2019 joined the New York Mets front office as a Senior Advisor to GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

Mendoza is the kind of outside candidate that could easily burn through the barriers given the chance. While being an ESPN broadcaster and a special assistant was a conflict that Mendoza never really addressed, that kind of ambition shows that she could push her way inside if that’s the path she chooses. With changes at ESPN, that choice might be more desirable suddenly.

A Hall of Fame softball player, Mendoza’s ability to break down complex components of the game, especially on defense, led her charge through the ESPN ranks, all the way to the Sunday Night seat. It put her on the firing line for many, but she worked with several partners, including Alex Rodriguez, and was roundly praised for her preparation and her product.

Mendoza has the academic chops as well, leaving Stanford not only with an armful of records, many of which she still holds, but received two degrees, including a Masters. Naturally, her ability to handle the media duties as a GM is one of her likely strengths, but almost everyone that mentioned her for this article said that her ability to manage people is going to be the strong suit. “She dealt with egos - Alex Rodriguez! - and personalities at ESPN and everyone loves her. No backstabbing,” said one source.

Matt Kleine
Born in Indianapolis, Indiana … Graduated from DePauw University in 2008 … Received his law degree from Marquette in 2011 … After a Media Relations Internship with the Astros in 2007, joined Baseball Prospectus where he wrote and interned…Joined the Milwaukee Brewers in 2007 as an Associate Scout …Went through various positions in scouting and administration from 2008 to 2013 … In 2014, became Baseball Operations Manager then Baseball Operations Director for another 3 years … In 2019 he was promoted to Vice President of Baseball Operations, his current job with the team.

I’ll admit I was proud when the first person mentioned Kleine as a possibility. I first met Kleine when he was a college student and baseball player and he went on to be another of the Baseball Prospectus intern pipeline, several of which work with the Milwaukee Brewers. Kleine managed to sneak in a law degree while he worked for the team and that puts him in good company around the league, with many who followed the “Theo Epstein” path.

While Kleine is probably at the start of the path, several who work around the league say he’s one of the people who’s name comes up when they start to put together a list for a hire. “If Matt Arnold [the current AGM of the Brewers] moved, Kleine would be on the short list there, so when someone like Minasian or Krall move, you start thinking who could shift up to that position in your organization or another.”

While Kleine is still building his resume inside baseball, opposing teams who might consider him for a position already see the potential. “The surprising thing is that not only does he work well inside the front office, he has a bit of an ex-player vibe,” said one peer. “He played college ball and I think he speaks that language only players do, so I could see him down in a clubhouse and having no problems. That’s a rarer skill these days.”

While Matt Arnold and even David Stearns get more attention, there’s several others inside the Brewers front office that seem to be coming faster. “Arnold and a few others still have a bit of Astros on them,” said one AGM, who acknowledged that seems to be very selective as a negative. Kleine, Mike Groopman, and Tim McIlvane seem to get as much or more attention around the league despite being further down the org chart. The Brewers could end up with quite the developmental tree in a few short years.

Honorable mentions: Sky Andrecheck (AGM, Cleveland), Sig Mejdal (AGM, Baltimore), Randy Flores (AGM, St Louis), Justin Morneau (Special Asst, Minnesota), Jason Parks (Dir Pro Scouting, Arizona)

*The date on this column is 2010, but it was actually done significantly earlier, maybe 06? Not bad, with two current GMs and several others that have moved up the list, been interviewed, and most are still in positions of power. I did better with this ‘08 list, where seven of the ten went on to be GMs, including Kim Ng who was an honorable mention. I think I can peacock a bit on these results.

* Biographical information and other assistance by David Barshop.

*Apologies for the lack of visuals here. Since I don’t have rights to photos, I’ve been using YouTube clips (and letting Google deal with the rights issues.) Trying to find them for this group was … well, difficult at best.

*I mentioned I was doing this piece on Twitter and subscriber Mike C asked what jobs I thought would be open for the people on the list. That’s always difficult to say, but you have to look at a situation like the Angels this year, where they had a GM nearing the end of a contract who hadn’t turned a team around, or in a situation where a team was vastly underperforming expectations. There’s not really any of those — Baltimore is in year 3 of a rebuild, but Mike Elias probably has a couple more before he has to show some wins. Al Avila seems stable in Detroit despite the last few years, though he’s now tied to AJ Hinch and a resurgence. The Rockies are to me the most likely, given the possible change in ownership and their lack of success. It could be a very quiet front office market for the next few years.