UTK Special 12/11/24
Some Signings, Some Risk
The Yankees didn’t get Juan Soto, but Brian Cashman pivoted quickly, signing Max Fried for big bucks. Fried shifts over from the Braves and becomes the P2 behind fellow SoCal Gerrit Cole. That should be a nice one-two come playoff time, if both are healthy.
At 31, signing an eight-year deal is the riskiest part of this. Teams like to spread things out if not outright defer things, but this also makes this a potential anchor deal. Fried’s had enough arm problems that insuring the deal would be hugely expensive if at all possible, and there’s no opt-outs or other escapes. He has to be good, and healthy for this deal to work.
Fried only made 14 starts in 2023 with a variety of issues, but in four of the last five seasons, he’s made 28 starts or more, spotting up 165-185 innings each. That’s solid enough for a P2 and the depth the Yankees now have could allow one of the other starters to be moved in a deal.
And that deal might come quickly. Rumors of deals for Nolan Arenado and Kyle Tucker are floating, though the return for either isn’t known. The Yankees have plenty of covetable prospects, but for Arenado, the question is salary. The Cardinals are kickstarting their development program this season and getting the premium haul for where ever they send Arenado (and others) is key. That could mean eating some salary, but I’ll suggest that taking Marcus Stroman back in a deal with the Yankees makes sense. The Cards could use the innings and it would match up well with the Yankees needs, especially if they can give up one less prospect.
Even dealing Stroman, the Yanks have six starters and while Nestor Cortes is the ultimate swingman, injuries make that sixth starter and far more usually necessary. There’s some ready depth with Will Warren and Chase Hampton isn’t far off if the Yankees have to go Dodger-esque and get into their system. They could trade off one of the further off but higher ceilinged pitchers in a deal for Tucker or Arenado and not damage their ‘25 set.
If the Astros are willing to deal Kyle Tucker, I’m curious why. He’s going to get more expensive and he did have the very strange leg injury last season, which should hold the raise he’ll get in arbitration (or negotiation) down some. Tucker would likely fit into left for the Yankees and assuming the leg is fully healed as it should be, Tucker would be an upgrade there and under control for a couple seasons.
The Astros have Jacob Melton close to ready to step in for Tucker, but unless they need the savings to help sign Alex Bregman back, Melton’s not likely to be an immediate upgrade. The team succeeded without Tucker, but the minor leagues are still a bit barren behind some decent upper level guys like Melton, Brice Matthews, and Zach Dezenzo. Those draft penalties are hurting right about now.
The Yankees system is solid right now so there’s plenty the Astros could want in return. A source tells me they love George Lombard Jr, but so does everyone around baseball and I’d be surprised if the Yankees would move him for anything but a blockbuster.
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