I’ve done comeback specials for the last couple years and they remain one of my most popular pieces. It’s an easy format to understand, so I get it. For you non-subscribers, this gives a bit of insight into the kind of things I look at, but I will say that putting this out this early, in this year, is very likely to make me look stupid.
Coming off a 2020 that included big name injuries, full-season opt-outs, and the quirkiest, shortest season to give us data from, almost all of us are going to be wrong about a lot of things. I should probably have waited til the last minute, just to make sure everyone played and didn’t add their names to Jon Roegele’s long list of Tommy John patients.
Playing it safe is no fun, but let’s set up some ground rules -
My definition of “comeback” is a bit variable, but I think it’s easily understandable. I’m looking for players that due to injury conditions are due to have a jump in performance. Most are players that are being assessed incorrectly because people misjudge the severity or the rehab possibilities. I’m expecting these players to have not only a big jump in performance over the previous year, but higher performance than projections.
For each of these players, I’m using STEAMER data. STEAMER is just one projection engine, but for me, it’s been the best over the course of better than a decade. I also feel it’s one of the most accurate at projecting usage and assessing the effects of injury. There’s not a lot of variance in modern projection engines, so it’s easy to adjust depending on your models. STEAMER is available at Fangraphs if you’d like to check yourself.
So here’s my ten players — nine that I think will be better and one that I think will be worse — for 2021:
Michael Kopech P CWS
There hasn’t been as much of a known unknown as Michael Kopech since Steve Dalkowski or Toe Nash. We’d all heard of the 105 radar reading before Kopech was seen by most, even in a YouTube world. When we did see him, it was a load of funky mechanics and an “I told you so” Tommy John scar. Kopech 2.0 was much the same, more Steve Austin than Electric Boogaloo. He was bigger, stronger, faster, but the second Tommy John surgery caused a lot to check out. Add in some strange off-field whispers, not one but two reality star romances, and then just as we were about to see Kopech 3.0, he opted out of the 2020 season.
That was the last straw for the old school. Now not only was his mystical arm being questioned, but his desire. He missed all of 2019, now all of 2020, and what were we supposed to get? It’s admittedly an unknown, but someone tell me why a year off, a history with one of the best physical trainers in the game (Bobby Stroupe of APEC), and an organization that actually made Bobby Jenks good for a little while? I see the risks, but I see a lot of upside as well.
The bigger question to me is what is Michael Kopech really, in baseball terms. The big arm and Texas background screams Nolan Ryan, but two surgeries later, I don’t think the arm holds up to all the stress. We don’t know if that would be better as a reliever, how he would cope with the uncertain schedule, the in-game pressure, and the recovery, but if 100, even 102 or that mystical 105 is still in there, it’s more likely to come out Aroldis Chapman than Nolan Ryan.
Projecting him is a fool’s errand, but with a STEAMER projected 10 K/9, the key is more getting 100 innings out of him in any role rather than hoping he can somehow get 25 starts. I doubt Tony LaRussa will tandem him, use him as a bulk opener, a six-man-skip starter, or any of the other possible creative ways to start him, but LaRussa might squint and see an eighth-inning guy the likes of which he’s never had. Ahead of Liam Hendricks, the Sox have seven guys who project to have 9 K/9 or more, which doesn’t include Garret Crochet or Jimmy Lambert. Given the 3-batter rule, having short relievers with a bit of stamina might be a big positive.
The Sox will surely give him every chance to start, but Lance Lynn’s signing makes shifting Kopech to the pen easy. There’s simply no scenario that’s bad for Kopech, absent another injury. Put my money on him to have that one great year, made easier by a great team around him and a better team behind the scenes.
Chris Sale SP BOS
Chris Sale is coming back from Tommy John surgery, like several others, but seems more equipped for success than the others. Sale isn’t a power pitcher exclusively and even if he’s lost a little bit of velocity or command at the start, he’s likely to adjust even with his long levers. Add in that he’s always been worked at the upper edge of what is safe and there’s a chance that the ‘rest’ of a nine month rehab will help him more than most. He’s also less likely to overdo things - looking at you, Noah Syndergaard.
That’s not to say he comes right back to ace status, but if there’s one guy of this year’s cohort of TJ survivors, I’d put my money on Sale being the quickest back to form. STEAMER has Sale at 112 innings, which I think is vastly low. Even if Sale goes to 15 months on his return, he’d hit that and there’s just no need for him to miss that much of the season given when he was medically cleared and where he’s been this offseason. The Sox will be conservative with him, I’m sure, but they need to make sure that they’re not just wasting starts either.
The rate stats I think will be standard - he’ll get back to being a premium swing-and-miss pitcher, though we could easily see the walks jump, at least initially. Sale has never been the standard “tall pitcher”, but those do tend to have more mechanical issues after surgery. It wouldn’t surprise me if it happened, just as it wouldn’t surprise me if it didn’t. It’s a known risk, in other words, and should be factored into any value.
Assuming we see Sale throwing at the start of camp, there’s no physical reason for him not to be pitching for the big club by the end of April, and that’s being conservative. Sure, a couple minor league starts are probably in order and would help the new Triple-A franchise across town, but that’s the best reason for him to spend much time there.
David Price SP LAD
How do we think about players that opted out? Given that David Price had dealt with injuries and was a salary dump by the Boston Red Sox, its not hard to think that Price would be, at age-35, well on the downslope. That might be, but for the Dodgers, there’s little downside. They’re already paying him only half of his $32m salary so something shy of 3.0 wins is the breakeven point for the money in analytic terms, but for the Dodgers, money concerns aren’t nearly as big an issue. STEAMER has Price projected at 2.0 wins on 135 innings, but that feels a bit conservative to me.
What the Dodgers would like is a pitcher who could slot in and take 160-180 innings behind Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler. It would force the team to use Julio Urias or Dustin May in a relief role (or they could get creative) for some of the season, but if Price or Kershaw break down along the way, the team is ready without overexposing either young player. (Both would be a different story.)
Price has had elbow problems, but the minor UCL tears appear to have healed up and what if Price used the time to essentially do a rehab program? We know he was throwing, though there’s very few details about how or what that program entailed. We won’t know much until he throws, though reports are very positive. A source tells me that Price is ahead of where the Dodgers expected and that the team is actually worried they’ll have to pull the reigns some early in the spring.
If the opt-out is one big rest and assuming Price ramped back up properly, that should be a major positive. I’ve always wanted to test the hypothesis that a Tommy John rehab would do wonders for people that didn’t have elbow issues - a year of rest and work on their arms to build strength and resilience. MLB essentially did that with the opt-outs and almost everyone in the minors. We’ll see how it works soon.
Corey Kluber SP NYY
I started writing this before Corey Kluber signed with the Yankees, but his signing makes such complete sense that nothing changes. Kluber worked out for teams last week at Eric Cressey’s facility, where Kluber has worked for years. Cressey, one of the top physical trainers in sports, is now the head of performance for the Yankees, who will now be in charge of getting and keeping Kluber healthy, which is what he was doing anyway. Normally, a team like the Rangers or even Cleveland would have an information advantage over a team that signs a free agent, even with the best due diligence and even with access to medical records. This is different.
But can it pay off? None of this works if Kluber is injured again. He missed most of 2020 and cost the Rangers money and prospects*, but it was with one of the flukiest shoulder injuries seen. The fact that we saw two more of them - something we’d never seen before at the MLB level, then got three in the weirdest season ever? - didn’t explain them, especially for Kluber. Add in that Kluber had missed the back half of ‘19 with a broken forearm after a comebacker.
Comebackers are bad luck and traumas seldom happen again. The shoulder is a bit less of a known, but Kluber is throwing well and will spend a full season with Cressey. He’s had excellent medical care at both previous stops, so call this a bit of a wash. $11m isn’t a big risk for the Yankees. He’d need a 2.0 win season to really pay off and he cleared that bar every season between ‘13 and ‘18. At 35, a one-year deal with upside is a pretty good one and Kluber merely needs to replicate his worst healthy season in the bigs to make this work.
Sure, there’s downside here, but there’s no opportunity cost for the Yankees. Not only might Kluber’s deal pay off, the one they made with Eric Cressey is going to look awfully good on just one deal, and he’s done a lot more already. Look for Kluber to be limited on innings, somewhere around 160 to 180, but to put up solid value while doing it.
*One of the prospects traded for Kluber in the Cleveland-Texas deal was Emanuel Clase. Clase missed much of ‘20 as well, but for a drug suspension, not an injury. He should come back with the same kind of 100-mph heat he showed that rocketed him from Single-A to Arlington in ‘19. If you think of it like one of the players that opted out and consider all the changes in Cleveland, there’s a good chance Clase ends up closing or at least getting key late innings and putting up big strikeout numbers. Consider Clase the honorable mention on this year’s list.
JD Martinez DH BOS
At age-33 and heading into his 11th big league season, I think we have a pretty good handle on what kind of player JD Martinez is. If so, it may be as simple as this: Martinez is a really good hitter that is better when he’s on a good team.
There are players that are only good when they’re winning. They check out, mentally and physically, and that’s not how Martinez seem. Talking to people that have worked with him with all of his teams, none think that’s the issue. Instead, Martinez is what one coach I spoke with calls him “an amplifier.” His skill set only works when surrounded by the right people. The simplest example of this is you don’t get RBIs unless there’s someone on base, but there are far more situations where the context of the team and situation comes into play.
Since most are negative on the Red Sox prospects for ‘21, that doesn’t bode well for Martinez. I’m a bit higher on the Sox than most, especially in terms of getting the most out of the players they have. ‘20 was a weird season in many ways, but the lack of efficiency from the Sox across the board seems more fluke than pattern.
Martinez’s back injury was muscular, something that doesn’t usually have a long term effect. There’s no indication that this is anything that should affect his swing or power, or to go chronic. Martinez has always been known as a work ethic guy, so if he does adjust, he’s likely to take preventative maintenance seriously.
The other major question is whether Martinez’s across-the-board drop-off is the result of the inability to see in-game video. Martinez is famous for his video work and in-game adjustments, so it’s reasonable to think that the loss of this affected him more than most. That policy remains in place, post-Astros, so Martinez’s adjustment to that will be as key as anything else.
STEAMER has Martinez projected as basically repeating his 2019 season with a big drop-off in hits and batting average. Everything else, counting and rate, is at or near those levels. That’d be a nice comeback as it is, but it doesn’t feel like that’s possible. If he drops 30 points of batting average, I doubt his RBI will stay the same … unless there’s a big change in his power numbers. Aging players often go for power as they lose speed, but in a launch-angle world, I think that’s less likely to be a normal pattern. Martinez has been able to make changes throughout his career, so I think he’ll do it again, have a bounce back season, and be a big trade name at the deadline this year.
Buster Posey C/1B SFG
Buster Posey is heading into his age-34 season and coming off an opt-out season. That’s two facts that make anything hard to project, but I don’t think it’s impossible. While Posey is clearly a step down from where he was just a few years ago, I’m not sure that the year off is a negative. With any catcher, the worry is that there’s a physical degeneration created by what they have to undergo at their defensive position. A year off may end up being a positive, if Posey’s physical condition goes up without giving up his batting eye.
I couldn’t find any study about players that have taken a year off because largely, it hasn’t happened. However, there have been a couple situations where Posey himself had extended time off due to injury. In neither situation did Posey not come back to his previous level of hitting. Posey’s best season came after his brutal ankle injury cost him more than half of a season back in ‘11. The comparison holds pretty well given that Posey didn’t opt out until what would normally have been the mid-season point.
Posey is likely seeing the normal age-related decline, but might get a physical boost from the rest and lack of wear-down in the previous season. That could be a wash, leaving him on the slow decline seen in the past few seasons, or we could see something of a bounce back. STEAMER has him back to his ‘18 level, just a slight bounce, but there’s some upside beyond this if Posey’s physical condition is up more than expected with the rest. A shift, at least part time, to first base could also help, so I’m willing to take the slight downside risk for the upside possibilities.
Yoan Moncada 2B CWS
Maybe Yoan Moncada is like Bret Saberhagen; maybe he’s only good in odd years. I’m not willing to lay money down on quirks like that, but the stark difference between his two ‘bad’ seasons and his one very good season exist. In 2020 at least, we can blame the weirdness of the year and how Moncada, like so many people, was affected by COVID.
Moncada contracted the virus in the intermission of the season and admitted that even in September, he didn’t feel 100 percent. The hope is that the extra time will get him back to normal, though we know almost nothing about the long-haul effects of COVID. There have been no solid reports of Moncada’s workouts this offseason, but I think we should get a very good read early on, even before Moncada gets into games. Sources tell me that Moncada could barely complete workouts last year and that almost everything shifted to focus on recovery between games, which seldom was complete and showed. If Moncada looks relatively normal, completes the normal workouts, and doesn’t need additional rest in early camp, I’m in.
There’s obviously no direct comparisons for COVID, but there are some things I looked at that we have dealt with in baseball. On the low end, mononucleosis has a similar response, where it physically saps a player and reduces his ability to generate force. On the higher end, we’ve had several players that have dealt with cancer, where treatments can be devastating to physical condition and can cause extended absences. In almost all these cases, players are able to come back. The timing is variable, but almost without fail, a return to physical normality coincided with a return to normal production. Moncada should be at or near his physical peak, but we’ve seen this pattern across the board.
If we assume that Moncada has the capability to come back and that he’ll follow the normal pattern of physicality equating to production, then the assumption should be that he would get back to 2019 form. I will admit that the one thing that throws me is that his 2018 looks so much like his 2020 in rate terms, despite knowing that 2020 has an explanation. STEAMER has him coming back roughly halfway (3.3 wins vs his 5.7 win ‘19), but that seems a bit of a compromise. Add in the increased talent around Moncada and I think there’s a real chance he not only gets back to ‘19 levels, but builds on it in terms of rate stats.
Mike Soroka SP ATL
There was panic on the streets of Cobb County when Mike Soroka, the Braves young starter, took one wrong step last year. His Achilles gave way and in that motion, may have been the difference between the new-look Braves being in the World Series and not. Soroka is that good and has the potential to get better, matching with Max Fried to be a 1-2 and there’s more, even before the addition of Charlie Morton. The Braves go a legit 8 deep and there’s no team that has more ready young pitching talent than this team. (Key there is ready.)
But can Soroka come back from an Achilles rupture and go right back into the rotation? I remember someone asking me if he could make it back by the All Star break and my answer was “way before. If he’s not there at Opening Day, I’ll be surprised.” Achilles repair is not a year-long thing any more. NFL and NBA players regularly come back at the six month point and from about the time that Dr. Neal ElAttrache repaired Kobe Bryant’s Achilles, these have had much better outcomes than in year’s past. I won’t bore you with the details on materials and stitch patterns; suffice it to say, it’s better.
Soroka is already throwing and was as early as October. It’s not full go, but it showed that the tendon was healing well and he had a real chance to have a “normal” offseason in terms of work and workload.
You can see from this early November gram that there’s some visible atrophy in his leg. He’ll have several months to get back into normal shape, something the Braves are very likely to work on as they rebuild his energy systems.
STEAMER projects Soroka to only go 150 innings. That seems low if he’s ready to go at Spring Training, as he appears on course for. The Braves might be conservative and let him make a couple minor league starts, but there’s no evidence that would help anything. At just under 2.0 wins, that would be about half his 2019 production. I think it’s more likely that he matches that ‘19 season, in terms of innings and production, which is still a relatively low and safe number post-rehab. That’s double the wins STEAMER is projecting.
An Achilles injury is still a serious injury, but the timing and the changes in the Achilles surgery and rehab line up to make it possible for Mike Soroka to get back at a high level for ‘21. He’s not without risk, but most of them are ones the Braves will create for him rather than true physical recurrence risk.
Stephen Strasburg SP WAS
Stephen Strasburg missed the bulk of the abbreviated 2020 season because of an injury that was first diagnosed on assembly lines and is perhaps most associated with typing. Carpal tunnel syndrome may not sound soft, but the associations we have with it are. Quit typing, get one of those funny split keyboards, get a better desk. For a pitcher, the idea that something like carpal tunnel can even occur seems off, but for a pitcher with an injury history that seems as significant as Strasburg’s, it seems further off.
First, let’s consider that injury history. Strasburg famously had Tommy John surgery in his first season in the majors. He came back and had a cascading failure down the kinetic chain, but followed that with some changes and since he’s been one of the better pitchers in the league, which includes a World Series championship. Strasburg has never been a workhorse pitcher, at his best before 170 innings, but he’s a good one within known parameters. Strasburg limited like Blake Snell might be the best stuff pitcher in the bigs, even today.
As for the carpal tunnel, it’s a very simple and very practiced surgery. Surgeons have done this thousands of times a year and the results in everyday people - the people that do repetitive activities like tightening a bolt on the assembly line, typing, or pushing buttons on a game controller - come back at a very high percentage. While the condition is rare in baseball players, it’s not a rare condition. Strasburg is in better shape and has better care than most of the people that come back. Add in that he got a year of rest and rehab and more than most, Strasburg should see the effects.
We did see more repetitive stress injuries this year and there were significantly more than were reported. Talking to medical staff, there were these type of injuries in almost every training room. The reason is simple - quarantine forced more people to play more Xbox, be on more chats, to send more emails, and in one case, to do more woodworking! The hope is that some of these will see easy reductions as we get back to more normal life. An interesting observation is that sometime in mid-summer, Zoom got mainstreamed which led to less typing by many in favor of video chat. There was a correlating drop in problems, anecdotally.
STEAMER has Strasburg going almost a K below his career average, but staying under 170 innings. The interesting thing is that Strasburg seems to come back well from years where injuries held him back. My guess is that his season is going to look more like 2014, where he was a 4.5 win pitcher, with some upside with additional workload.
Justin Verlander SP HOU
Let’s be clear - this is sort of my “opposite day” pick. Verlander was likely not to pitch in ‘21, but I think we may have seen the last of Verlander, or at the least the last of elite Verlander.
Absent a massive acceleration of the normal Tommy John rehab, Verlander’s not coming back this upcoming season. The timing of Verlander’s surgery, coming late last season, would be behind even something like Matt Harvey or Stephen Strasburg and it’s unlikely that the Astros would push Verlander to come back at the tail end of the season, even if they’re headed into the playoffs.
My question is whether we’re going to see Verlander again at all. Verlander will be age-39 in 2022 and two full seasons from pitching. He’ll also be out of contract, though there’s plenty of possibilities. If Verlander wants to pitch, someone - likely the Astros - will give him a pile of money to do so. There’s some indication here - if Verlander was ready to walk away from the game, he wouldn’t have needed surgery. You can live a normal life without a functional UCL. What you can’t do is pitch.
However, two full years away at this age is unprecedented. I don’t feel like age alone is a big deal. Verlander is in better shape than many younger players that will have a similar surgery, plus has the experience to understand his arm. Add in that he’ll have the best possible resources and assistance and the rehab is going to be the least of his issues. I can’t question his desire, though certainly that will play a part as well.
What I can do is question whether something that hasn’t been done before is a reasonable expectation. I’m not willing to ignore the risk that not only will Verlander be diminished, but that he’s done. There’s only five players that have come back at Verlander’s age or more and while they were almost all special cases where I don’t put a lot of stock in how long it took them to come back, the fact is that none of them came back for an extended period of time. I’d give Verlander a better chance than all of them — Jamie Moyer, John Franco, etc — but I’d also say there’s at least a good chance that Verlander ends up among them.
There’s going to be someone at the end of every draft that grabs Verlander on a “what if” kind of move. I’m here to tell you that even in dynasty drafts, you shouldn’t be that guy. I think Justin Verlander is a Hall of Famer, but I think he does it on the numbers he has right now.