UTK Special 11/6/23
Free Agent Look-Ahead
We’ve crowned a champion and teams have started both their look-backs and plans inside the walls of front offices around baseball. They’ll come together in Nashville next month for the second of the new-look, One Baseball-version of the Winter Meetings, albeit in a common location. (Yes, I’ll be there, wearing both my NTangible and UTK hats.) Free agency is a big part of any team’s plans, and with the Rangers showing that spending big on key free agents can pay off big. Of course, the Mets and Padres can show you that it doesn’t always work.
The key prize is, of course, Shohei Ohtani. Elbow surgery aside, he remains an Aaron Judge level hitter for next year and a top pitcher down the line. Think two Tommy John surgeries will stop a team? Just look at Nathan Eovaldi for the absolute floor with Ohtani (Pitcher Version) at $16m AAV. There’s more thought that Ohtani might sign a shorter deal, or a deal with more incentives on the pitching side. Most agree that the floor here is Judge’s deal ($40m AAV) and that the rest will be set up with innings bonuses or an opt-out at three or four years with a vesting for innings. The sheer amount of bonuses necessary (and what’s allowable) makes this one of the most complex deals we’ve seen in the Luxury Tax era. This one won’t happen fast, unless someone comes over the top.
The Dodgers haven’t been aggressive and there’s questions about all the directions ownership has gone in the past couple years. Todd Boehly is far more focused on Chelsea, others have looked to buy into other teams, so does Mark Walter have a mega deal in him, especially if it doesn’t solve the pitching problems the Dodgers have in the short term.
The Dodgers will have another unexpected decision. Clayton Kershaw just had surgery to repair his shoulder capsule, a surgery that doesn’t have a great success rate, especially for someone with his history and mileage. While staying closer to Dr. ElAttrache will make some sense, would Kershaw want to wait to sign, see where the Dodgers and Rangers - the only other team he’ll consider - are, and make a decision?