UTK Special 1/14/25
Super Sasaki
Roki Sasaki is the kind of player scouts dream about—until they have to make a decision. He’s got all the tools: a fastball that’s been clocked as high as 102 mph, a splitter that falls off the table, and command that makes those pitches even more effective. He’s also just 22 years old, with a history of dominance in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), including a perfect game in 2022 where he struck out 19. Yet with all that promise comes risk. And if there’s one thing teams have learned in recent years, it’s that pitchers like Sasaki don’t just carry risk—they invite it.
Sasaki’s career has been carefully managed so far, largely to protect his golden right arm. The Chiba Lotte Marines took an almost conservative approach with him, slowly building his workload and monitoring every sign of fatigue or discomfort. But despite that, Sasaki has already dealt with some concerning issues. A forearm strain sidelined him for part of the 2023 season, and whispers about shoulder discomfort have cropped up more than once. Neither injury has been catastrophic — yet — but it’s impossible to ignore the stress that a triple-digit fastball puts on an elbow, no matter how clean the mechanics look.
What complicates things further is the track record of Japanese pitchers transitioning to MLB. The best of the best — guys like Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, and Shohei Ohtani — have all made the leap successfully, but almost every one of them has made a pit stop at Dr. Andrews’ office or a similar surgeon's table along the way. MLB’s every-fifth-day schedule is a stark contrast to Japan’s every-sixth-day routine, and the higher pitch counts common in NPB don’t do pitchers any favors either. There’s a reason why Tommy John surgery is so common among Japanese imports.
There’s two teams left in the bidding, according to multiple reports: the Dodgers and Padres. All the clubs have the resources, infrastructure, and immediate need for a player of his caliber, though they’d likely take slightly different approaches to his integration. With the Yankees out and the other teams reported to make the “finalist list” unlikely at best, Sasaki’s two choices seemed inevitable from the posting.
The Dodgers should be the gold standard when it comes to managing pitchers. Their use of analytics, biomechanics, and a first-rate medical staff makes them uniquely equipped to handle someone like Sasaki. They could implement a six-man rotation, as they’ve done at times in the past, to help ease the transition from Japan’s schedule (and ease Ohtani back into pitching.) Sasaki would basically replace Walker Buehler, with vastly more upside, and a healthy run with Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and maybe even Dustin May would create one of the most formidable rotations in baseball. Plus, the Dodgers have the financial clout to absorb any risk: if Sasaki does end up needing surgery, they can afford to be patient and they’re pretty used to losing pitchers at this point.
The Padres, on the other hand, offer a slightly riskier proposition. Their aggressive win-now mentality would make Sasaki an immediate centerpiece of the rotation, replacing the recovering Joe Musgrove, but supported by his friend and fellow Japanese star Yu Darvish. Darvish’s presence can’t be overstated here—it’s hard to overvalue the impact of a veteran countryman to help with the cultural and professional transition. Petco Park, with its pitcher-friendly dimensions, would also provide some cushion as Sasaki adjusts to MLB hitters.
The downside is the very unsettled situation in San Diego. The ownership lawsuit shows a big crack in the facade. I was told back after Peter Seidler’s death that just the sheer number of people involved in the Seidler Family Trust would make it untenable in the long term. If the team is forced to be sold, who knows if it will be an owner like Seidler or one like John Fisher. I’m not sure Sasaki wants to be there if Dylan Cease and others are traded off to make the payroll more manageable.
What makes Sasaki particularly tantalizing is how he compares to past Japanese stars. Scouts have called him the best pitching prospect to come out of Japan since Darvish, but his profile is different. Darvish relies on an expansive arsenal of pitches and constant tinkering. Sasaki’s game is built on power and precision, more reminiscent of a young Masahiro Tanaka, plus velocity. But the comp that keeps coming up is Shohei Ohtani, on the mound, anyway. One scout put it bluntly: “He’s got the Ohtani fastball and splitter without the bat. That’s still worth the price of admission.”
The price of admission, though, isn’t just financial. It’s the risk of what happens if Sasaki’s arm gives out. Teams know they’re playing with fire, but that’s always been the calculus with elite pitchers. Jacob deGrom’s recent injury history hasn’t stopped teams from paying him like the ace he is when healthy. Sasaki represents the same kind of high-risk, high-reward investment at much lower digits. And if he stays healthy, he could alter the trajectory of a franchise.
The Dodgers and Padres both have enough incentive to roll the dice. The Dodgers, with their deep pockets and focus on sustained success, could see Sasaki as the next great ace in their lineage. The Padres, with their desperation to finally break through and win a title, could see him as the final piece of the puzzle. Either way, Sasaki will bring more than just a 102 mph fastball to the table. He’ll bring excitement, intrigue, and the hope that the risk is worth the reward.
My guess? We’ll need a nickname for a rotation with three Japanese aces at the top. The Dodger Dojo? Kershaw and the Three Katanas? Rising Blue?
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Echoing Joe Sheehan, I feel powerless to do much about the LA Wildfires. I have some of my best friends in the area and while LA ain’t my lady, I do enjoy short trips out there. Joe’s suggestion to give to World Central Kitchen is always a good one with any disaster. Jose Andres does g-d’s work to be sure. There are others - my friend Jenn tells me that Pasadena Humane Society took on the bulk of animals, including large ones, and could use a boost.