UTK Special 11/30/20

The 200 Wall and The TJ Test

300 Wins used to be the magic number, much like 500 home runs. Hit that and you’re all but guaranteed to be in the Hall of Fame. Now, it’s 200 and there are not only very few that have past it, but even fewer on track. Curt Schilling is on the ballot this year with 216 and that could redefine the number, though Schilling’s high profile World Series wins help elevate him beyond mere numbers.

The 200 win guys right now are an interesting mix. Most baseball fans would probably agree that Justin Verlander (226) is a very likely Hall of Famer. Zack Greinke (208) has had a more varied career and it takes watching the game a bit more closely to realize how good Greinke’s been for how long.

But how many would say that Bartolo Colon, the “active” leader at 247 wins, is a no-doubt Hall of Famer? Should they? Colon falls at a 40.7 on Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, the best known and most widely used Hall of Fame ranking system. That’s 20 points below the 60 that an average Hall pitcher would score.

On the other side of 200, how many are on track? Clayton Kershaw is at 175 and a couple good years - full season years - would put him over. His totals in ‘18 and ‘19 would put him exactly at 200, so he would only need to not decline significantly and stay healthy.

Max Scherzer is a more interesting case. He’s also at 175, alongside Kershaw, and his win totals have been trending downward. At 36, four years older than Kershaw, a decline might be steeper and the team context didn’t help him much in ‘20. A couple 12 win seasons don’t seem like a bit stretch for Scherzer, just a couple years off a Cy Young, but it could be a steeper hill to climb than most think. In terms of JAWS, Scherzer is low - a 55 where 60 is the average plaque.

There’s a bunch of very good pitchers behind these, but it’s hard to argue that Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright, David Price, or Felix Hernandez are going to put up 20 or 30 more wins, thought it’s possible. Will Madison Bumgarner (120) or Stephen Strasburg (112) have 6 or 7 more solid campaigns?

Beyond that, we have to go down the list and speculate a bit more before we get to another 200 win candidate. At 101 wins and age-29, Gerrit Cole could have five or six more campaigns that give him 12 wins or better. That was certainly what the Yankees expected from his big deal and absent injury, there’s little reason to think Cole will decline in the next five years. Let’s conservatively give him 12 wins - 72 total - in the next six years and he’s basically in the position where Max Scherzer is now, with a year younger in his tank.

Beyond that, there’s nothing. The youngest pitcher with 50 wins is Aaron Nola, who has 58 at age-27. He would need seven 20 win seasons just to knock on the door of 200 and his career high is 17. Eduardo Rodriguez is just behind Nola, with 51 at 27.

I’m not saying that no one will ever have 200 wins. I remember this debate from about a decade ago about 300 wins and while that feels more solid than ever, 200 somehow still seems reachable. Like 500 home runs, it helps to start early, and rack up high, consistent totals over several years. Is there anyone out there like that? Shane Bieber is age-26 and coming off a shortened Cy Young, could be the kind of guy to rip off a decade of 12 to 15 win seasons. Add in a couple pushing 20, and yes, it’s possible.

I asked several people inside baseball to name their candidates and a couple said Max Fried, until I pointed out he has one solid full season to his name and he’s already 27, after injuries delayed his arrival. It’s possible, but unlikely given his age. Another mentioned Dustin May. He’s 22, on a team that’s good every year, but he also has 5 wins total in his two abbreviated season. It would be just as easy to say Kumar Rocker will win 200 and he’s not even drafted yet.

Wins shouldn’t define a pitcher, but we’ve used it as shorthand for the Hall of Fame for decades. If that’s going to continue, we’re going to have to redefine what a Hall of Fame pitcher is because if 200 is the standard, we’re unlikely to have any more for a while, if at all.

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Here’s an interesting conundrum as well. There’s only two people who have had Tommy John in the Hall of Fame - Paul Molitor and John Smoltz. Justin Verlander will be a third, but will anyone beat him there? In upcoming classes, the answer sure looks like no. The next Tommy John survivor coming up is John Lackey and I’m hard pressed to give him much more than the Cooperstown one-and-done on the ballot.

Given the sheer number of pitchers that have had Tommy John surgery, at younger and younger ages, how is it possible that in almost 50 years of the surgery and 20 years of it being increasingly common that none of these survivors - between 25 and 30 percent of MLB pitchers over the last few seasons - have become Hall of Famers?

Indeed, does having Tommy John surgery all but eliminate a pitcher from Hall of Fame contention, as it would seem?

The case for anyone else is tenuous. I asked the question on Twitter and got three reasonable responses - Jacob deGrom, Chris Sale, and Stephen Strasburg. All of them are well below a pace for 200 wins and deGrom could end up shy of 100 if he sees a sharper than normal decline. Yu Darvish was also mentioned, but at 70 wins, he’d need his Japanese work included to have a reasonable chance.

This one stumps me, but I think it points to the broader problem of redefining what a Hall of Fame pitcher is. The modern game has created a lower peak, a shorter career, and a later entry, all barriers to putting up the standard Hall of Fame case, miracle surgery or not.