UTK Special 11/17/20

Clevinger Deal, LaRussa's A, and Quiet Trades

Going news and notes today, and yes, this is free since there wasn’t a Free Friday!

The Clevinger Contract

In 2002, the New York Yankees signed Jon Lieber, knowing he had just had Tommy John surgery and would miss all of 2003. The two-year deal was constructed so that the Yankees paid him to rehab, then got what they expected would be a good year. It was, going 14-8 with solid peripherals and helping the Yankees take it to seven games in the ALCS, though we all know what happened there.

Signing Lieber to this kind of two year deal was smart work by Brian Cashman and his staff, turning $550k and $2.7m into a solid top of the rotation starter for a playoff team. It was unconventional then, but the Yanks noted before anyone else that Tommy John surgery was basically standardized. A pitcher would have it and come back the following season just like he had been. That’s pretty much exactly what the Yankees got, with Lieber’s being 2.2 WAR in ‘02, then 2.4 WAR in ‘04, for about half the money he made it ‘02. It was a smart gamble on a guy who’d been a 20-game winner.

It did surprise people when the Yankees let him walk away, heading to the Phillies on a three year, $20m deal. The Yanks had a bad taste in their mouth after the playoffs and let a lot of the pitching staff turn over, so Lieber’s slot became Carl Pavano, which we know wasn’t a good idea.

The contract though, that was a great idea and we saw the Yankees do it a few more times, with the rest of the league picking up on it as well. It was jokingly called the “Lieber contract” for the rest of the decade, until Lieber passed out of mind and so many Tommy Johns went around the league that the specialness, the otherness of that contract was lost.

Mike Clevinger just signed a Lieber contract, with a bit of a twist. After it was announced on Twitter, someone asked why, since Clevinger was already under team control. The answer is in the system - Clevinger had a nice season last year and is headed to “Arb 2” season, which last year netted numbers in the $2-3m range, with names like Jameson Taillon, Michael Fulmer, and Kyle Freeland being nice comps.

At Arb 3 and over, there’s a big range from Trevor Bauer at $17m down to Lance McCullers at $4m. Settling at $8m, knowing the normal course of Tommy John surgery, is reasonable and probably a good deal for both parties. Remember that in arbitration, the injury isn’t something that can be argued. They could argue low innings, low wins, things like that, but they couldn’t present or even mention the surgery, which I’m sure the arbitrator might infer in there.

It’s important to note than none of these cases was decided. The team and agent came to an agreement in almost every case and went halfsies in a handful. Clevinger signed a reasonable deal and will be a Padres for both his rehab and his comeback, which should be interesting to see.

Trade Storm Brewing

There’s been a flood of big trades in the NBA, but for MLB, it’s just quietly bubbling along. That’s not for a lack of teams that could use an upgrade, nor for a list of good possible trade candidates. There’s lots of both, but the uncertainty of payroll, schedule, and the rest of the things in COVID-World are holding teams back.

It won’t hold them back forever and there’s going to be a couple tiers to it. In talking with people around baseball, they’re expecting this to happen in three tiers, or waves, or whatever you want to call it.

First, you’ll get Blake Snell, who stepped up on the big stage of the playoffs and is going to be the kind of expensive pitcher the Rays normally trade away. That’s not to say they will. People tell me the Rays don’t have to push Snell out - he’s signed to a team friendly deal that has three more years on it. Instead, the Rays are seeing if they can get more value for Snell than they can out of Snell himself. Someone’s going to have to overpay.

Second, you’ll see the Indians finally let Francisco Lindor go. Did I mention overpay? The Indians have been waiting on the right package for two years and it doesn’t seem to be coming, so it gets to be a bit of a game of chicken between front office types. The Indians know what they want and so does everyone else. Everyone else knows what they want to give up - universally, its what one called “Great-Good-Fits”, a three prospect deal of one top ten prospect that will make the talent collectors happy, one good prospect to dream on, and then someone else that fits, like a nearly ready shortstop or a pitcher that the Indians machine can develop. That deal should happen quickly, though almost everyone is waiting on new GMs and especially new ownership - Cohen isn’t the only one - to define themselves.

Finally, we get the most interesting portion, which is where Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado get dealt. The Cubs are positioning themselves to trade almost anyone, but Bryant is the most likely to go and the most likely to be symbolic in going. Several mention that he’d be a great fit in Philly, with his old childhood teammate Bryce Harper. The Cubs could easily take Alec Bohm back in the deal and add in a prospect like Mickey Moniak, the slow-developing former first overall pick and get the deal done.

Arenado is going to be more interesting and is frankly better. The Rockies ownership is going to push several out and Arenado makes the numbers look good as they ready for sale, aside from the win total. This is where a lot think the Mets will step in and take on more contract. Some mention Brandon Nimmo, a Wyoming native, as a good return piece, but Nimmo is 27 and neither an established player or a solid prospect. Would the Mets deal top pieces like Pete Crow-Armstrong or Brett Baty? We’re going to get a good read on how the Mets front office values players and how they think they can use the big checkbook early on with this deal, even if it doesn’t get done.

If it’s not the Mets, who gets in on Arenado? That gets unclear. Do the Padres have enough payroll room to slot in a difference maker at third? Is San Francisco going to get back in the big-time player game? Do the Marlins let Kim Ng make a big deal right off the bat and show they’re interested in playing ball again? I wouldn’t discount the Nationals, who’d be essentially replacing Anthony Rendon, and the Dodgers, who could backload the deal knowing that Justin Turner isn’t going to be around long and that Corey Seager is a free agent soon.

And there’s always Mystery Team lurking out there. If nothing else, we need the Hot Stove to distract us from everything else. In a COVID winter, I’m hoping that front offices bless us with so many trades that Jeff Passan ends up with thumb tendonitis.

It’s La Russa’s World

The Tony La Russa saga is at a strange point. We’ve seen the video, we’ve heard the words - “Hall of fame baseball person” - and now we’ve seen that the prosecutor has dropped the charges, in large part because he wasn’t drunk enough. The White Sox weren’t going to fire La Russa without being pushed, but there were several people inside and outside the organization that hoped Rob Manfred would be the pusher.

C’mon. Jerry Reinsdorf already showed that he’s still the contrarian when he was one of the owners voting against Steve Cohen taking over the Mets. He was the contrarian when he hired La Russa and he’s not going to suddenly spin and admit that everyone else was right when he pushed the hiring through, which as the owner is his right. The problem is that when an owner does that, he reminds the rest of the people there just how much they’re valued.

The White Sox are a good organization and Rick Hahn has built it up despite some handicaps. He doesn’t have a big payroll, he doesn’t often get to go after big free agents, but he’s made the most of some of his advantages, like the medical and sports science staffs, and the consistency of the organization, especially on the pitching side. It won’t make many reports if some of those people start asking about other jobs, in other organizations, but it’s already happening.

One non-Sox front office type gave me this line about La Russa: “I think this is worse. [La Russa] wasn’t that drunk and he was saying that stuff? He shouldn’t have been driving, but if someone’s saying that stuff sober, how much of an A-hole is he?”

The Ballot Dance

The Hall of Fame ballot is out and with it, we’ll get the annual watch to see whether Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens inch up and get the Hall of Fame enshrinement their talent deserves. The argument is not whether they’re among the greatest to ever play the game, but whether their transgressions are enough to keep them out, given the moral stylings of the voters.

Last year, Derek Jeter and Larry Walker were supposed to be the anti-steroid era people and while we haven’t yet got to hear their speeches - Walker’s should be good, I think - there were many that thought keeping Jeter separate would send a message. Or maybe a gift basket.

This year, Bonds and Clemens come in with vote totals at roughly 61 percent and most go up from there. Say what you want about what they may or may not have done, or what the rules were at the time, but I have a hard time just ignoring how good both were. When I look at Greg Maddux or Randy Johnson, it is in part in comparison to Roger Clemens that their greatness and the greatness of pitching in the era is defined.

There’s another name on the list - one that nearly got in last year - that is just as complicated. Curt Schilling had 70 percent of the vote and while you may not like his politics or blowhard persona on social media, he was one heck of a pitcher and that’s what I thought the vote was about. And yes, the sock was real.

I expect that all three will make it and that we’ll get jokes about everyone boycotting the ceremony. I think Scott Rolen will get a bump up and be just shy of it, but put himself in position to get in with the ‘22 class, which I’ve honestly never understood. He’s not going to have more hits or homers, or more slick fielding plays at third, so unless you’re specifically “classifying” by year, why not, voters?

New ones? No, I don’t think any of those will make it either. Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle can make a nice case at 214 and 222 wins, but the re-definition of the pitching standard is just getting started. No, I don’t believe wins is how we should be judging things but JAWS has both of them a bit below the standard. I think they’ll get in eventually, but there’s a lot of pitchers in this area over the next five seasons that will have to inch the standards to a new era.

‘22? That’s when we get Alex Rodriguez, who will be a show unto himself, and will likely get the Bonds/Clemens treatment, with the added bleepshow of him showing up on every kind of media that will have him. Kevin O’Leary’s going to tell him that he should be in the Hall of Fame at some point on next year’s Shark Tank, I guarantee it. Making it harder is putting in the beloved David Ortiz at the same time. JAWS classifies Ortiz as a 1B and he’s significantly below the average standard at that position, but Ortiz is almost an N of 1.

The Hall of Fame is going to be a mess for voters over the next couple years, as they try to put a bow on the “Steroid Era”. The easiest way to not make it the story is to do the right thing and vote for the best players. It’s hard for writers not to control the narrative, but in these cases, they’d be better off to stick to sports.