UTK Special 11/13/23
The Angels Dilemma
Ron Washington was hired as the new Angels manager and with everyone making “It’s extremely hard” memes - as they should - I’ll avoid it for now. However, it’s going to be extremely hard.
First, what happened with Buck Showalter? It seemed that Showalter was headed towards this job from almost the moment he stepped out of Citi Field. There’s certainly reasons he wanted the job, and reasons the team could have used him. Showalter is known as a detail-oriented manager not afraid of using analytics or relying on his gut. He’s outspoken, whip-smart, and has a temper. He also isn’t scared to override his limits and for Perry Minasian, even with their longstanding knowledge of each other, it may have gotten a bit shaky if Showalter started having more of a voice in personnel in Minasian’s last contracted year.
I’m also told that Showalter saw the Craig Counsell deal and liked what he saw. Did he price himself out, when Ron Washington was right there? It’s plausible.
Washington is nearly as feted as Showalter. They’re both baseball lifers and while Washington doesn’t have as much experience as manager, he doesn’t have none. His successful run with the Rangers was sidetracked by personal issues, not on-field ones, and his time with the Braves as a coach restored most faith in his ability to not have the same issues.
One of the first things Washington did was name a coaching staff. It’s an all star laden, minority heavy staff of baseball lifers like Washington. But is it the right one? My guess is this sort of baseball enthusiasm was part of the Washington pitch, but there’s also an old school feel here, with not an analytics, quality control, or coordinator in sight. The Angels have never been heavy on progressive moves, but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be the right thing to do now. Whether Washington can do that remains to be seen.
The bigger issue is the Angels roster itself. Shohei Ohtani isn’t coming back, so let’s get that out of the way. Going all-in for the stretch run didn’t work, and it didn’t work quickly. Mike Trout remains the attraction, but he’s aging* and no matter who they surround him with, it hasn’t resulted in wins. That’s not Trout’s fault, but it’s hard to take a look at this team, the free agent market, the trade market, and Arte Moreno’s recent history with the team and see a path to winning in the next few years, absent a miracle. Sure, the Rangers went from 100 losses to a World Series, but show me where the Angels have the pieces in place to do that.
(Here’s a question: Will Trout hit 500 homers in his career? Trout is age-32 and has 368 homers. His most similar batter is Duke Snider, who didn’t hit over 25 in any season after age-30. I’ve always thought there’s some comparability with Ryan Braun, who had a huge decline after age-30 as well. I find it hilarious that Tim Salmon comes up as a top-10 comparable for Trout and Salmon dropped in power after age-31 after a run of injuries.)
One of the issues is the other all-in, the ‘21 draft where the Angels drafted 19 of 20 college pitchers. It was supposed to rebuild the gaping hole of development in the organization, one that still misses Tyler Skaggs and maybe Nick Adenhart. The plan was a good one - boldly addressing an issue and promising that pitching help would be on the way sooner rather than later. Ignoring the upside of high school pitchers makes sense, or would have if the pitchers had actually gotten to the majors quickly and with reasonable floors.
That hasn’t happened. Sam Bachman (1) and Chase Silseth (11th!) have made the majors, but aren’t lighting it up or pushing for big 2023 innings when they were needed. There’s clearly still time, for those and for others, but Ky Bush (2) is stuck in Rocket City (AA), Landon Marceaux (3) was much the same and was flipped for Eduardo Escobar, and Luke Murphy (4) is likewise a Trash Panda. Mason Albright was the one high school pitcher the Angels selected in that draft at an overslot 12, but he was flipped to Colorado for CJ Cron and Randall Grichuk. While Albright is projecting as a possible back-end rotation guy, he won’t do it for the Angels. Turning picks into major leaguers is nice, but it was hardly the plan at the time.
Actually, the ‘22 draft might be ‘more’ successful in these early days. Zach Neto is an established SS, while Ben Joyce showed he can be electric when healthy. There’s more return and promise from this class and ‘23? Nolan Schanuel barely saw the minors and could be catching Neto’s throws for years. If there’s a savior here, two scouts told me they love Chase Gockel, a D2 pick that got absolutely hammered in his first time in the Complex League. Nonetheless, they like his makeup and the makings of his stuff. The easy comparison is Brandon Pfaadt, who came from the same league, but had better raw stuff.
The 2021 Pitching Draft looks like a disaster for the Angels. I’ll tip my cap to Minasian and his staff for doing it, but results matter. It might cost the Angels on the field and at the checkbook, as the team still needs pitching after all that and will have to pay free agent prices for at least some of it if they hope to contend. Even with that, one they’ll likely be replacing is Ohtani, a once-in-a-lifetime unicorn. Teams that let those walk usually regret it.
Ron Washington can do a lot of things. He can inspire. He can teach. He has experience. He has a vast sea of stories. He can’t pitch and I don’t think he can do miracles. The job he faces isn’t extremely hard. As constructed now, winning with this Angels roster is impossible.