UTK Special 10/6/23
Division Series Health Preview
With the Division Series starting up after an exciting round in the Wild Card, health remains a key factor. I won’t go over all the wild card winners - you can go back here to see the details, though I will update each as necessary with the effects from the first round. As always, I’m trying to find the context and looking through each team with the lens of sports medicine and sports science focused on them. Let’s look at the teams trying to ring the Division bell:
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Baltimore’s resurgence might echo what Houston did a decade ago and still rides the wave of, but while there’s certainly similarities, when it comes to health, the Orioles faced big challenges and came out the other side largely because it avoided the pitfalls of young rosters. While I’m always going to point out when a medical staff succeeds, this is organization-wide and that full “on the same page” mentality worked to amplify things, to plant the seeds of success, and turn even their failures into a playoff advantage.
The biggest injury of the 2023 season for the Orioles happened in 2022. When John Means went down with Tommy John surgery, the question was whether they would finally hit the free agent market for an ace and when Means would be back to give them the 1-2 they’d been anticipating through the rebuild. The setback Means had early in spring didn’t panic the team, though I doubt they thought they were headed this way. It felt like another year where the fans would suffer through the build, but instead it exploded despite Means. Dean Kremer had a career age-27 year after being up and down for several, a very late return on Manny Machado. Kyle Bradish did the same, taking a leap forward at age-27, a very late return on Dylan Bundy.
The Orioles staff was largely internal, adding only the stability of Kyle Gibson, it’s hard to say what changed from the outside. Peak timing is tough to do and projections weren’t far off. Both of their K-rate were up, but everything else is pretty close. That means most of us just underestimated what they had, thinking an ace would solve all the problems. It’s a tortoise pitching staff, in other words, slowly and steadily getting outs. Their deadline low-ball for Jack Flaherty was a nice “can we fix him?” move that didn’t pay off, but didn’t hurt the team, with him now acting as both insurance and an extra lefty arm in the pen
The bullpen was the same. Felix Bautista established himself last year (at age-27) and was able to dominate. I won’t overvalue a closer, but his loss is huge and his value was higher for such a young team. Losing games late is hard on the psyche and Bautista’s first half helped establish the confidence they show now. Yennier Cano came over in the deal for Jorge Lopez, one of the rare deals where the Twins missed something. The rest of the pen was solid, if unspectacular. Like the rotation, they just got outs.
If the pitchers were slow and steady, the lineup wasn’t. It was young stud after young stud, building on the foundation of Adley Rutschman with Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and even Heston Kjerstad. Kjerstad overcame a heart issue and injuries that held him behind, but he’s arrived and is solid depth for now. There’s a world where the entire O’s infield is in-house next season. Keeping young players, some with thick injury files from the minors, healthy through near-full seasons is tough.
To add to the difficulty, Rutschman is a young catcher and the clear star of the team. Losing him would be tough on many levels, with more than one suggestion that his handling of pitchers was a major factor in their jump this year. The team wisely used DH as a rest day, splitting him roughly 110/50, which helps and may keep him from wearing down the way other young catchers like Matt Weiters and Joe Mauer did down the line. Then again, if your young catcher has Mauer’s career, a team did pretty well. Even Weiters wasn’t a flop.
Overall, the rebuild as we knew it stopped quick. It’s built, even with more like Jackson Holliday and Cade Povich on the way. They won’t add another lottery pick for a while and if they end up like the Astros, then I’m sure other teams will try it. A team that needs to rebuild, like the Angels, would do pretty well by hiring away Sig Mejdal and seeing what happens.
HOUSTON ASTROS