UTK Special 10/23/20

Free Friday: iPhone Day, Rest Day, and more

I can remember waiting in line for the original iPhone back in 2007. It wasn’t a big line outside an AT&T Store - Indianapolis didn’t have an Apple Store back then - but when I got my hands on an iPhone, I knew it was a game changer. I just had no idea that the game would be baseball.

We can start with MLB At Bat, or now just the MLB app. I probably watch more baseball on my phone than on my TV, a shift that happened completely with the iPhone. That’s very true for a lot of other people as well. I also watch a lot on Apple TV, which is a spiritual descendant of that original iPhone.

The iPhone wasn’t the first phone with a camera by a long shot, but the improved screen and ability to edit right on the phone in an easy way certainly made it better. Now, almost all we see of amateur baseball is done on an iPhone versus some expensive SLR rig, even for telephotos. The ability to get high quality slow motion video has led to things like Flatground, Pitching Ninja, overlays, and more. A $4 app called SloPro does more than a $4,000 Edgertronic in my book.

My iPhone is my car key, my credit card, my connection to every source and friend I have, my news feed in multiple ways, my reading device for books, and it monitors my heart closely enough that it goes to my cardiologist in a report. And that’s not even the new one coming later today.

We’re 13 years and generations of iPhones down the line now, which makes some think there’s no innovation. I say you have only to look at baseball to see how the iPhone has been driving this kind of innovation for better than a decade, right in our pockets.

Rethink Rest Day

Both the Rays and Dodgers rely heavily on their bullpen. In 2020, the expanded rosters have led to even bigger bullpens and the three-batter rule has done nothing to slow down the march of power relievers coming into a game and shortening a starter’s outing. Clearly, it works, since both teams use it and both teams are here, and I expect this to become the new normal as teams both copy the Rays/Dodgers and focus more on pitching development.

Through the LCS’s, there were no off-days, in order to crunch in the World Series in October. It worked, but not without some stress on the pens. The add-in of the traditional travel days (sans travel) should help to some extent, but not as much as people are letting on. The depth of the pens has allowed for situations where a reliever has been used for either an extended outing or multiple consecutive outings has been minimal and in those situations, there were options to go to. Really the only exception was in Dodgers Game 7, but Urias was used an extra inning knowing there was a day off behind it.

(For Urias, yes, I consider that an extended outing despite him being a starter. He wasn’t used as a starter for at least a month and had been used in one inning stints prior. He was cruising and I’m not suggesting he was overused, just extended slightly with rest behind it.)

The rest day is not going to change much of anything for either team in a physical sense. A day off will help, but it should help equally. I think the bigger advantage will be for a mental re-set. Both teams have been heads down almost daily and that’s stressful both mentally and physically. Again, I think it’s going to end up equal, but given how close this series is on matchups, someone being slightly looser or recovering slightly better could be the difference.

Game 3

The Dodgers come out with another ace-level pitcher in Walker Buehler while the Rays counter with Cy Young contender Charlie Morton. Buehler basically walked in from Vanderbilt with the stuff and attitude to be the spiritual successor to Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw’s back didn’t force him out and now Buehler is the 1A rather than the one, which I believe has taken some of the pressure off him. It doesn’t change the workload or his stuff, but Buehler is able to pitch Game 1 or Game 3 and just fit into a talented, well-managed staff.

Morton’s a pitcher that’s always had good stuff, but couldn’t stay healthy. By the time he got to the Rays, he was coming off a second shoulder surgery and seemed out of chances. Instead of seeing what he wasn’t — a Walker Buehler type ace — they found out they could use him twice through the order, find rest days for him here and there during the season, and Morton turned into a very useful weapon. He’s hardly the classic ace like Tyler Glasnow or Blake Snell, nor can he do the things they do with their stuff. Morton’s different, gives a different look, and then walks off before the third time around, relying on a bullpen that’s held up their end of the bargain more often than not.

So far the Series hasn’t been decided by starting pitching. It’s matchup and mash, whoever’s hitting the ball farther on a given day. Brandon Lowe - this year’s name test for fans - tuned up his swing in Game 2 to tie it. In Game 3, I expect a swing back to the Dodgers. It’s impossible to say who’ll have done something like Lowe did with his old hitting coach, but something along those lines will be the headline tomorrow.

The Next Arozarena?

Randy Arozarena is the very definition of freely available talent. He was a talented but unheralded international signing at $1.25 million by the Cardinals. He started at A-ball, made a futures game, but only made 19 appearances with the Cards at the end of ‘19. He was traded to the Rays in a multi-player deal that included money and picks, but he didn’t immediately come up for the Rays either.

And then he was a star, exploding for 22 hits in the playoffs. Is this simple timing or did both the Cards, Rays, and basically the entire league sleep on him? I talked with several scouts, both pro and amateur, including several that had seen Arozarena along the way. Obviously, none saw him this year aside from on TV.

My question was simple - did people just miss Arozarena’s breakout potential, or is there another Arozarena out there waiting to be traded for on the cheap? Most said he wasn’t missed. “He was in the Futures Game!” was a constant refrain, and most pointed to that very game for similar talent.

“Basabe with the White Sox was the star of that game and he has a shot in Chicago [White Sox],” said one scout. A personnel guy said fellow Cuban Yusniel Diaz, part of the Manny Machado haul in Baltimore, is his future star, but he also pointed out that he’s hardly freely available. “I can’t imagine [Baltimore] letting him go for anything short of a star.”

Another pointed to Seuly Matias, which was a name I didn’t know. The Royals outfielder was on the 2018 Futures Game roster but 2020 was a real lost year for him after finishing 2019 at High-A. “Matias is the kind of guy you could sneak into a bigger deal,” said one AGM. “There’s been some talk that the Royals might have to deal Whit Merrifield, so you give them two or three prospects and then ask for them to toss in Matias.”

A couple other names came up, but it’s clear that there’s talent out there waiting to be unlocked. Arozarena is a heck of a story and the top end of what you can expect from anyone at any level, but at just 25, Arozarena should have a couple years to prove he was more than just a playoff fluke. Let’s hope his success leads to more scouts beating more bushes for more talent.