UTK Special 12/15/23

The Glasnow Trade

Trading for Tyler Glasnow makes the Dodgers better, but by trading Ryan Pepiot, the deal doesn’t make the team any deeper. That’s the issue that I have, and that the Dodgers still have after the deal.

Ignore the money. Ignore the Margot/DeLuca part of the deal, though Margot fits nicely in the field with Mookie Betts moving to second. (And that move still perplexes me. Unless the Dodgers are absolutely sure that Gavin Lux is 100 percent coming back from ACL reconstruction, wouldn’t it be easier for him to play second with Betts at short?) The key here is depth. The old rule of thumb used to be that a team needed to get 1000 innings from its starters. That’s really unlikely these days, but I don’t even see where the Dodgers get 800.

Glasnow is an ace-level starter and he’s shown, both before and after his elbow surgery, but his career high in innings is 120 last year. Let’s be optimistic and project him out to 150. Anything over 160 would be worrisome. Add the playoffs on top of that and it gets downright scary, precisely when the team would need to lean on him the most.

That surgery, known to be an InternalBrace repair, could be a key here. The revision rate is significantly lower, though that ongoing work by Dr. Jeff Dugas was focused on lower-level patients. If it makes Glasnow more durable, even after the standard “honeymoon” period, this trade and extension could be a huge upgrade for the team.

Walker Buehler is coming back from Tommy John surgery and should be relatively normal almost two years post-surgery due to the timing. The decision not to have him pitch at the end of last season was interesting, pointing to stuff issues more than physical ones, but we won’t know that until spring training (or maybe Buehler will post some Dustin May style pitching videos.) Regardless, Buehler’s workload will have to be managed and teams tend to be very conservative in the first year post-surgery despite the longer layoff and no evidence to support this. Let’s call Buehler another 150 innings.

Bobby Miller threw almost 140 innings between levels, though mostly for the Dodgers. He established himself as their best option and if he’s the 2 or 3, he can likely hold up. At 6’5 and still filling out, the age-24 pitcher should be able to absorb more innings, but again, the question is how many. Assuming he can avoid injury, going to 175 is reasonable, especially if he’s not extended further on game-to-game workload than he was last season.

That’s a solid top three and 475 innings we’ve accounted for, but now we’re into the bottom of the rotation and depth and here be dragons. Emmett Sheehan was forced up last season due to injury, precisely the thing teams don’t want to do with a prized Double-A pitcher. That said, he was 23, a college draftee, and not some David Clyde clone. With Gavin Williams doing much the same thing in Cleveland (and at roughly the same classic 6’5 pitchers' build), some are wondering if this speed-to-the-majors move is a rush at all. I’ve previously made this argument, as has the TINSTAAP originals.

Sheehan went around 110 innings, 60 of those with the Dodgers, as they very carefully managed and monitored him. Williams went around 120 between levels. With both, the expectation is they’ll again be closely monitored, so another 150 from Sheehan would be nice and he still has upside, even ace level.

That’s 625.

That leaves the Dodgers with Gavin Stone, Ryan Yarbrough, and Kyle Hurt to fill out the rotation. Stone made four starts and was overmatched, though he’s had good results at Triple-A. Going 130 innings between levels, he could conceivably add 150 innings if he gets the slot. Yarbrough has the most experience and the most workload, going 90 innings between teams, even after missing time with a fractured skull. (I don’t like that sentence.) Yarbrough has gone as many as 155 in the past, but his problems going through the roster more than once led the Rays to making him an opener. Hurt is more likely to be a deep emergency starter and again, him getting 80 innings would show big problems.

From those, 150 is the top end and we’re not likely to get there. Even that only gets the Dodgers to 775. If the bullpen, even with shuttling (which isn’t easy with teams in Oklahoma), has to pick up 1450 innings or so, that’s a big, big ask despite having more depth there.

Beyond those, Clayton Kershaw won’t be back until at least the All-Star break. Sources tell me it’s 50/50 at best that he’s back then and even so, there’s question about how well he’ll pitch. Kershaw’s been amazing over his career, especially this latter half where he’s been dealing with back and shoulder issues. Kershaw could make a very interesting opener, but the pen likely won’t be an option given his detailed warmup routine and his post-surgery stuff.

Michael Grove made 12 starts, but the league figured him out pretty quickly. He was on the playoff roster largely because there wasn’t anyone else left. Emergency starter, maybe, but if he gets another 80 innings as a starter, something’s gone wrong. After that, the Dodgers have almost nothing ready. Nick Frasso is on the 40, but not on many prospect lists. They have some live bodies on the roster of Oklahoma City and Tulsa, but their prospects are largely at A or lower.

That leaves the Dodgers with a clear need for more pitching. Glasnow was an upgrade, but in a one for one trade, the depth is the issue. Shohei Ohtani’s deferrals make it possible the Dodgers sign his former teammate, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but spending $200m+ on him still leaves them short. His 170 innings in Japan should translate (no pun intended) and his stuff should dominate. If we assume Yamamoto will be somewhere around that workload again, the team is still short of innings, even if they are significantly better innings that what they’d get from those five-slot candidates. (And yes, the Dodgers can do Yamamoto even after spending $135m on Glasnow.)

Even with Yamamoto, the Dodgers need to sign an innings eater. Those aren’t as cheap or available as they used to be. Michael Wacha is no durable ace and he just cost $16m per for the Royals. Marcus Stroman is going to be well north of that and hasn’t exceeded 140 innings the last two seasons. Hyun-Jin Ryu came back from elbow surgery last year and went 50, so he’s unlikely to hit 150 next season. Julio Urias did 120 last year before his suspension and 180 the two previous, so despite his issues, the Dodgers might have to swallow hard and bring him back. If they miss on Yamamoto, there’s no better option even with the moral hazard.

Yamamoto or no, that one-year bridge starter is key. Pitchers like Stroman and Jordan Montgomery aren’t likely to take a one-year deal, while Urias doesn’t have much room to negotiate. Johnny Cueto, if one thinks he’s fixable, or an age-44 Rich Hill could be options.

That’s largely because the future is brighter. With Glasnow, Buehler, Miller, and Sheehan, the Dodgers would have the potential of a dominant rotation. The youngsters should be building up and in their prime over the next couple seasons, less likely to be overtaxed by workload and youth. Buehler should get back to his near-ace level in ‘25 and a bigger workload, and fighting Glasnow for the ace tag.

Then there’s Ohtani. Let’s assume he comes back normally in ‘25 and there’s no reason to believe, even without knowing exactly what was done to his elbow, that he won’t come back well. We don’t know if the Dodgers will use him in his once-a-week manner or slot him into the normal five-man, but even then, those secondary young pitchers like Stone, Hurt, or a younger pitcher that comes up in a year or two give them the depth needed. If Yamamoto comes on, plus those four sure starters, that makes Ohtani the number six of the rotation. I won’t argue a bit with a six-man rotation if it’s six that good.

That’s the upside that could be there in the future, but the downside is a clear and present danger. Despite a top-notch med staff, a smart front office, and two years of miracles from Dave Roberts and Mark Prior, even a single pitching injury puts this team in a bad situation, reliant on depth that simply isn’t there. With Ohtani’s deal and the rest of the longer term deals the Dodgers have - Freddie Freeman is the first of the key players to close out a deal and that’s not until 2027 - the base is there to build on and essentially, 2024 isn’t that big a deal. This isn’t a win now team, though they’d certainly like to win now.

The Dodgers have made most of the moves and spent a lot of money, but if they are focused on ‘24, they can’t be done, and they can’t take their eyes off injury reduction as the key to their season. As the Mets and Padres showed last year, it isn’t as easy as just writing checks and nothing is easy in baseball.