UTK Special 10/02/23

Wild Card Health Preview

While four division winners sit back and try to stay ready - the dangers of the All Star dip loom large here and no one’s yet perfected this - the other four teams will battle it out in short series. Whether or not this is the disadvantage it’s intended to be, the loss of the “coin flip game” is a win to me. The playoffs are still random, but they shouldn’t be that random or that single-player dependent.

Before we get to that, let’s take a look at a couple developments that won’t affect this round. Felix Bautista couldn’t make it back despite some solid bullpens. His elbow showed more issues and he’ll have Tommy John surgery next week with Dr. Keith Meister. He’ll miss all of 2024 and all of this year’s playoffs. Also, Jon Gray went on the IL with a strained forearm. While it’s a minor strain, he’ll miss at least the first playoff series and there’s questions about whether he can make it back at all, leaving the Rangers very shorthanded. The Mets also had a couple injuries, with Brandon Nimmo suffering an AC sprain and Jeff McNeil being diagnosed with a UCL sprain. He had PRP and hopes to avoid surgery, but there’s a chance he misses some or all of next season.

Now, let’s grab a coffee and take a long look at the Wild Cards. At 3,600 words, you might want to brew some more:

MINNESOTA TWINS

As the Central winner, the Twins aren’t technically a “wild card”, but here they are playing against one. The Twins got here not by avoiding injuries, but by minimizing their effect. This was a roster loaded with risky players and pitchers, so the question is not whether the Twins were low on days/games/dollars lost, but whether it would have been worse if they’d not made some significant changes in their medical staff and philosophy. If the ultimate stat is wins, the Twins got those above expectations.

Those injuries were significant. Carlos Correa managed minor injuries and lingering plantar fasciitis, missing only a couple weeks. Four players had over 60 days lost, which isn’t good, but the team was able to use depth to get past it. Their biggest question now is how Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis fit in. If any, or all, make the playoff roster, it’s a smart use of time and rest given their early playoff clinch.

On the pitching side, things were much more stable. All five starters went over 20 games. There’s also a solid core of relievers, which shouldn’t change much. It’s such a small core that the Twins could make some interesting decisions and shrink the pen in this first short series. A couple extra players - perhaps a hobbled Byron Buxton - could make a difference over a reliever that only comes in for blowouts. With a couple starters that could be penned or left off as well, the team has a chance to do something a bit different and give themselves an advantage. The tyranny of teen-count staffs must fall!

The Twins showed that keeping starters healthy and minimizing everything else can work. They’ll need to have better ability to develop pitching, but successful trades work just as well. A little bit of luck might let us see whether building a stadium without a roof in Minnesota was as terrible idea as it seems come October.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

The argument for the wild card was that a team like this, a 97-win team, would be out under the old system. My hope is that we come up with something better after expansion hopefully comes with a realignment into four divisions. It’s still luck if you’re the second best team in the league, but second in your division, but hey, we could also value the regular season the way most of the world does. But that’s not going to happen. Even European football figured out the Champions League.

This Tampa team isn’t the one that started the year, or even the second half of the year. Wander Franco is gone, and yet here’s three rookies in Curtis Mead, Junior Caminero, and Oslevis Basabe who while they can’t replace him are solid young talents. Basabe is sidelined with a sore shoulder after a pretty dive, but he didn’t stick the landing. He should be available, but there’s depth and flexibility.

Randy Arozarena remains the player I think would have the highest NTangible score in the game, while the rest are all chess pieces for Kevin Cash and The Quants to line up as needed. Both Jose Siri and Luke Raley should be available as well despite late season injuries, so how the Rays put together their playoff roster may come down to matchups and needs, a nice problem to have.

It’s the pitching that hasn’t gone the way the Rays expected. “Decimate” is from the Latin, indicating when a Roman Legion lost ten percent of its men and therefore its effectiveness. (Oh look, I thought about the Roman Empire once today.) There were forty men who pitched for the Rays, with only Zack Eflin making it over 30. There were only six relievers who made it over 30, yet this is a playoff team. What they have left is the question. Eflin and Tyler Glasnow will go 1-2, but Cash used all three of his other possibilities in a single game to keep them as options. The lack of a lefty starter could be an issue.

The pen is at its healthiest now, with Peter Fairbanks at the back. That doesn’t mean Cash won’t deploy anyone at any time in search of the slightest advantage, making moves that seem counterintuitive. There’s seldom a time where one of those moves didn’t come with forethought and data, so the pen is less about roles than where that slight advantage can be found, meaning the mix and match nature doesn’t work against the team as normal. Cash doesn’t even seem to mind going shorthanded like most other managers.

Tampa comes to the playoffs a different team, but still a dangerous one. Their advantages have seldom been on the field, but in the preparation for each game. At some point, those advantages are going to pay off, but this roster at the end of the season shows there’s enough talent to keep making it this far and getting chances for years to come.

TEXAS RANGERS

I wrote up the Astros on Sunday morning, so naturally the baseball gods made that a bad decision. The Rangers lost on the last day, dropping them to the second wild card and costing them the bye and home field. They’ll have to shake this off and head to Tampa, a tough matchup for anyone, especially when they haven’t had any time to set what’s left of their rotation or get anyone rest.

The rotation isn’t what the Rangers wanted. Early, they thought they’d have Jacob deGrom and late, they thought they’d have Max Scherzer. The Mets curse travels? What they’re left with doesn’t even include Jon Gray. They had five starters with 20 starts, but it wasn’t the five they expected. No offense to Jordan Montgomery, but he wouldn’t even be here if things had gone to plan. Now, he’s the clear 2 and the 3 is muddy. In fact, I think the Rangers should think about kitchen-sinking a possible Game 3, starting Martin Perez and seeing how to fill in behind whatever he does.

The bullpen is an odd mix. There’s three late-inning guys in Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, and Jose LeClerc. There’s another three or four that go in front of them, depending on how you define a core. Modern bullpens aren’t made for consistency, but this isn’t a mix and match. The issue is more that no one stepped up and took the closer role, and behind them, no one stepped up and showed they could do a better job. You could say the front office could have upgraded it, but they brought in Chapman and had a lot bigger issues at the deadline.

Injuries were as big an issue for the players as the pitchers. Corey Seager, Josh Jung, and Mitch Garver all missed significant time, but the rest was largely solid. Two over 160, eight of ten over 100 games played. Evan Carter has come up and taken left with his performance, but this is much more to plan, if not absolutely on plan. Consistent lineup aside, this is a hot and cold roster reliant on the longball and Corey Seager.

The Rangers have an interesting coaching setup and while I don’t want to take away from the mystique of Bruce Bochy, getting to the playoffs, even this way, shows that it works. Bochy’s reputation is largely made on his playoff performance, so we’ll see if it can continue despite the randomness and short series they’ll have to add because they couldn’t find one more win somewhere during the season, let alone their last day loss.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

The Jays have gone a bit under the radar this season and I don’t get why. They have the stars, a solid core of players, and a nice collection of role players around them. They’ve certainly had injuries, but the work of the medical staff has been notable with minimizing the missed days, despite some tough conditions to work on.

Keeping George Springer largely healthy, managing the knees of Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and Brandon Belt and getting Hyun Jin Ryu back well from Tommy John are all solid contributions. Injuries at catcher were largely covered with depth, but the players themselves came back well and within normal timeframes. The medical staff never got overwhelmed, but I’m sure they put in big hours.

The team goes into the playoffs with only Danny Jansen a question mark. His finger is recovering, but how much and whether it’s enough to make this first series is an unknown. It’d be nice to have him, but Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman are adequate. Around the rest of the diamond, everyone is relatively healthy, though the aforementioned maintenance work will keep going. If they go deeper, the rest and travel schedule could get tight.

The rotation, again, is relatively healthy. They go down five deep with Ryu back and it’s been basically all they’ve needed. The top four went 30 or more, with Ryu and Alek Manoah combining for 29. Seven starters in a year? That’s a healthy staff and they’re good on top of that, with four of the top 14 pitchers in the AL by fWAR.

Same same is largely true for the bullpen. Jordan Romano missed a couple weeks with a back injury, but has been largely solid before and after. Jordan Hicks is still a power arm, but hasn’t been great as a set up guy. The Jays mix and match with their role-players and I’ll be surprised if Hicks finds himself in many high leverage situations. A pair of righties (Erik Swanson and Yimi Garcia) and the last LOOGYs (Tim Mayza and Genesis Cabrera) will get the majority of the late work up to Romano.

Being healthy gives the talent a chance to perform. The front office and the medical staff have done that all season long. It’s up to this team now to find a way to beat the team that’s becoming their nemesis.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Milwaukee doesn’t have any rings, so they’re not a dynasty. What’s been built here under Mark Attanasio, with three GMs (Doug Melvin, David Stearns, and Matt Arnold now), doesn’t get the recognition it deserves because of that. This isn’t the best Brewers team, or the most talented, or the best constructed, but Craig Counsell seems to get the best of them in the season, then randomness strikes in the playoffs. Is this the year it rolls in their favor?

The Brewers cruised to the division title, despite being low-man and forced into the first round. While it’s a disadvantage, the team was able to rest and recover in the weeks ahead. Garrett Mitchell came back, though he likely won’t make the playoff roster, but being able to rest Christian Yelich should help. The team has largely been the same, though bringing in Carlos Santana and Josh Donaldson were smart, cheap moves that any team could have made, but helped push the Brewers to this point.

The strength of the team is the pitching. Most of it is developed in house and then honed to a high polish by the development staff. Corbin Burnes is an ace, while Freddy Peralta has been nearly as good, held together by a medical staff that has to manage a number of issues. That someone like Peralta got 30 starts is impressive and perhaps as much as a 2-win swing over a likely replacement. The weak back of the rotation will be hidden some as things shorten up in the playoffs and could paper over long relief issues as well.

The pen is the opposite. Aside from Devin Williams and Abner Uribe, this is largely found parts that have been made useful. Call it a Tampa style pen if you will, but it works and has long been a strength of the team. There’s no reason to think it will be used any differently or be less effective in the playoffs, where the world might get a look at the Airbender. (Seriously, a lot of people only watch baseball in the playoffs.)

As with Kevin Cash, Craig Counsell hasn’t had things go his way in the playoffs, leaving what the Brewers have done underrated. A deeper run will only make the rumors louder and the dollars Attanasio has to spend to keep Counsell go up. He’s worth it and I expect he’ll be a Brewer, if not for life, then for longer.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

The Phillies had two key injuries this year and both were known well before Opening Day. Bryce Harper came back from Tommy John surgery and had no issues once he did. In fact, he ended up papering over the loss of Rhys Hoskins by shifting to first himself. Sure, there were other injuries along the way, but it’s hard to say any of them changed the shape of the Phillies’ season.

This is largely a set lineup. There’s a bit of platooning, especially once Johan Rojas came up, but it’s largely predictable from day to day. There’s some flexibility, mostly from a couple multi-position guys, but the core of the lineup has a huge drop off when that flexibility is forced. There’s a late-season elbow issue with Trea Turner that’s concerning, though how much it will affect his game is yet to be seen.

The pitching is much the same. It’s consistent and deep, with three 30-game starters and Ranger Suarez over 20 despite starting the year on the IL. The Michael Lorenzen deal didn’t add quality as much as depth in the end, despite the exciting no-hitter. That gives Rob Thomson some options with who starts and who functions out of the pen. It’s not as key in the short series, but could help if they get deeper. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola could be the best 1-2 of any playoff team.

The pen? Same. Deep, consistent, and not as dramatic as one would think despite the presence of two closers that can have their ups and downs. The stuff plays, especially with the late-season add of Orion Kerkering, a fifth round pick last year who dominated the minors and has a sweeper that’s evolutionary. They’ve got a pair of late lefties and righties, which should negate the balanced and switchable lineup the D-Backs usually roll out.

Looking at this lineup, it’s hard to see how they ended up a wild card … until you look at the Braves roster. Over a short series rather than a long season, I’m not sure which is better, so the Phillies have a real chance to go deep.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

If Brent Strom hasn’t made his Hall of Fame case yet, then the 2023 DBacks rotation should be the bold stroke at the end of his resume that locks it. The hard decision to buck off Madison Bumgarner set the stage for Strom to dial in the talent he had. Zac Gallen became a Cy Young candidate and Merrill Kelly would be an ace on most staffs. Gallen had bounced from team to team, with the talent always there, but injuries and inconsistency stopping this kind of season. Strom unlocked him, quickly.

The depth? Well, Brandon Pfaadt hasn’t solidified his place in the rotation and he continues to get hit hard. A scout told me that it’s the great players that hurt him. “Aaron Judge torched him a couple starts ago, but Judge does that,” he explained. “He’ll see a lot of those in the playoffs though, especially against the Phillies.” Beyond that, it’s Ryne Nelson as a fourth or even perhaps ahead of Pfaadt. Nelson’s big heat might play better and Strom’s unlocked the secondary pitches. Without Tommy Henry back, that’s the options.

The pen was solidified by the mid-season deal for Paul Sewald. Ryan Bliss was the prize there, but he was behind Jordan Lawlar so this was a wise usage of assets. Ryan Thompson was a nice waiver find, and if there’s any worry, it’s that others are fatigued at this point in the season. They’ve never been able to replace what they lost in Mark Melancon, forcing guys who’d be good role players into high leverage situations. It’s a glaring weakness and forces Torey Lovullo to hope a lot.

Things look better, and deeper, on the player side. Corbin Carroll is the presumptive Rookie of the Year and should get MVP votes behind Ronald Acuna and Mookie Betts. You could actually say the three of them have similar skill sets. The rest of the roster are role players with upside. Players like Tommy Pham and Jace Peterson augmented the team, though with a minor league pipeline loaded with up the middle guys, this could be the start of a run and on the low side of a talent ramp.

Not many are noting that Josh Barfield left to be AGM in Chicago, but just look at this roster and you’ll see why it could be an issue. Not only did they draft a lot of good players and get them through the system, they often did it quickly. Corbin Carroll, Jordan Lawlar and Brandon Pfaadt are three straight first picks that hit, with Tommy Troy likely to follow. He also gave them fodder for trades, like the Daulton Varsho for Gabriel Moreno deal that really solidified the team.

MIAMI MARLINS

The Mets grounds crew won’t get a playoff share, that’s for sure. This team wasn’t expected to make the playoffs a couple weeks ago, let alone at the start of the season. The downside is the best of them haven’t made it. Both Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez are out, leaving Skip Schumacher to try and make it through three games with one good starter and a weirdly constructed pen. Schumacher’s energy has been the right fit for the team, so we’ll have to see if he has an “us against the world” speech in him for the big underdogs.

Luiz Arraez has been fighting an ankle issue over the last week of the season. Even with so much on the line, he hasn’t been able to go. If a couple days more treatment gets him back, that improves the team in a big way. The same is true for Avisail Garcia, who could also be back from his hamstring strain. The rest of the no-name offense has been … well, ordinary. Only Jon Berti joined Arraez, who wins a batting title again, with over 2 WAR. Someone could step up. Maybe Jazz Chisholm makes his jump from “good for commercials” to “good for baseball.”

The rotation is down to the Jesus Lizard and … well, I won’t call Braxton Garrett just another guy. He really established himself in his second year, but he’d be a better four than two. He can be very on and off, so the Marlins hope it’s the former. Who joins Luzardo and Garrett is a big question and with all the lefties in the pen, either the experience of Johnny Cueto or the upside of Edward Cabrera is the choice. We have to what if how this would look with Alcantara and Perez in place and I feel like this alone dooms the team in any series.

The Marlins have a really quirky pen, loaded with lefties and a bunch of names that all but the hardest of the hardcore fans will respond with “who?” There’s youngsters, retreads, re-uses, and just one (Andrew Nardi) that came from in-house. That’s the case with a lot of teams and on the cheap, the Marlins did well enough. The one thing they don’t do is command well, so the walks can get really problematic when things are off.

The Marlins have won more World Series than a lot of teams and more success than any recent expansion team. That was a while ago, a lot of GMs back and a different owner. That they got here is more a nice kudo to their rebuild than much more than a dice roll of randomness against five better teams on the NL side. Much weirder happens in baseball sometimes and the Marlins could go big weird this fall.

You don’t subscribe for the picks, but here’s I go. I’ll take Jays in 3, Tampa in 3, Milwaukee in 2, and Philly in 2. I expect the Jays-Twins series to be the best baseball, and I have the least confidence in the Tampa pick because of their pitching. Enjoy the games and let’s hope there’s no need for a UTK Flash along the way.

RIP Tim Wakefield and Chris Snow. Those both hurt.