UTK Short 12/12/22
The Six Body Problem
The New York Mets lost Jacob deGrom and well, it’s been an interesting time since:
I’ll leave Cohen’s “tax” problem to others, especially since the Padres appeared ready to go to much the same place. Instead, I’ll focus on what the Mets rotation could look like with six valid starters.
First, let’s acknowledge that I am largely against the six man rotation. Second, let’s acknowledge that I am largely against the five man rotation. Indeed, I think there are better ways that a 1-2-3-4-5 rota to distribute starts and avoid fatigue. Let’s put all of that aside for now.
Second, let’s acknowledge that most teams will need to have about eight starters. (I tried to look up how many starters a team used last year, but the proliferation of bullpen games made it impossible for me to check. Anyone know?) Six is nothing if you need eight, or more.
Those stipulated, having a rotation of Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco, Jose Quintana, and Tylor Megill is interesting. (David Peterson is there as well, plus a returning Joey Lucchesi.) Megill was shifted to the pen last year, so the idea that he will make it through 30 starts this year is a stretch. Possible, but there’s depth if he doesn’t.
The issue is taking 5 starts from Scherzer and Verlander and handing them to Quintana and Megill. I don’t know how to statistically show this, but any fatigue saved from that move is likely not coming without a negative cost from the talent drop off. Sure, Megill could throw a no-no or Quintana could have a run like the one he had when he came to the Cards last year, but we work in large numbers.
The other issue is the idea that Senga “needs” a six-man rotation. He’s never gone over 177 innings and has been more around 145 over the past few seasons. If you say Senga can only pitch once a week, I would think that fixing him on a weekend day - the ol’ Sunday Starter - it would be more advantageous. The other five could rotate through with a skip on Sunday. Over the course of weeks, it would make it so that there’d be an extra day’s rest built in, with a two-start week for only one or two, depending on off-days.
I’d take it a step further and skip Megill (or the five starter, really, if we call this a five plus Senga) every time it came up just after Senga. Essentially, the five starter never starts on Monday (or Tuesday after a Monday off-day.) This would add a couple starts back to Scherzer and Verlander. If they’re tired at the end of the year, you use the five starter and there’s no real alteration.
Honestly, I would do a four plus Senga rotation, assuming that Senga does need that. It would be Scherzer and Verlander, then a secondary rotation of Quintana, Carrasco, and Megill. It gets very complex and I can’t figure out a way to show it that elucidates it - where’s Derek Rhoads when you need him - but regardless, it’s clear that there’s at least ways the Mets should consider that could end up better for everyone than just running out a six man.