UTK Playoff Preview 2025
League Division Series
Let’s start with a discussion about starters before we get to the previews.
Starters aren’t going to throw complete games anymore. That’s not opinion - it’s the shape of the game now. Pitchers are throwing harder, with more movement, to better hitters, in a game that is fundamentally different from what it was in the 1970s. You can pine for Nolan Ryan and 250-pitch starts, but you’re asking for time travel which means you’re reading the wrong Carroll.
Velocity is king. The average fastball has gone from the low 90s to the mid 90s in just a couple decades and those averages smooth over the fact that many random relievers I can’t even name are sitting 98 and starters now try to hold 95 into the sixth. There’s no pacing, no cruise control. These aren’t complete games - they’re max-effort bursts and the whole outing is a sprint. They’re not saving bullets for the ninth. They’re emptying the clip against three hitters at a time, hoping the analytics and conditioning buy a fifth inning before the pen heats. There’s no such thing as a comfortable 89 on the black anymore. Every pitch is torque, velocity, and exposure.
But it’s not just about going hard - it’s about going hardest. Pitchers have added movement, sharpening breaking balls and manipulating spin in ways that seem to defy physics textbooks. The goal isn’t just to fool a hitter but to break their spirit. Seam-shifted wake, gyro sliders, sweeping breakers - it’s not just “stuff” anymore, it’s chaos disguised as design. That chaos takes a toll. The arm isn’t built to throw 95 with horizontal break across 100 innings at a time. The shoulder, the elbow, the rib cage, the oblique - all get shredded by the demand to tunnel six different shapes from the same release point. Pitchers break, not because they’re soft, but because the job got harder.
Hitters? They got better. Kyle Schwarber will hit .196 and still walk into October as a threat. Teoscar Hernández might strike out 180 times and it doesn’t matter. An out is an out and he’s always a game away from a two-homer night. We aren’t watching nine guys hoping for singles and bunts. We’re watching Ohtani and Judge send baseballs into orbit. Cal Raleigh looks like a lumberjack and swings like he’s chopping redwoods. Power isn’t accidental, it’s expected. Every at-bat is a threat to go deep and fans love it. They show up for fireworks. The problem is that pitchers have to guard against that for five or six innings, every night, knowing one mistake ends in a jog around the bases and another inning lost.
We didn’t have this in the ’70s. A 30-homer season used to mean something. Now 40 doesn’t even get noticed. Soto is a disappointment. Junior Caminero hit 45 and oh, did that surprise you? When’s the last time you heard someone talk about Caminero or Michael Busch (34) or Jo Adell (37). The league hit 5,868 home runs last season. In 1977? Just 3,644. That’s a 60% increase and that’s not the ball, the parks, or the training. It’s the shift in mindset. Home runs are the goal, not the accident. Pitchers know it and they pitch differently because of it.
This isn’t a softening of the game, it’s a redefinition. A starter today is being asked to throw harder, move the ball more, miss more bats, and survive in a game where hitters are stronger, smarter, and incentivized to slug. The natural end to that story is fewer complete games, shorter outings, more pitching changes, and more injuries. Velocity has a cost. So does movement. So does throwing eighty sweepers to get through four innings of a modern lineup.
Here’s one to consider: if you dropped Anthony Volpe into 1977, he might be the best shortstop in baseball. A 20-homer middle infielder with speed, glove, and range? He’d be a unicorn. In ’77, the average SS hit .256 with 6 homers. Volpe’s power-speed combo, paired with even modern baseline defense, would put him in the All-Star Game. Yount was just getting going. Concepción was still a glove-first guy. Volpe would look like a cheat code. Drop his 2023 numbers into the Bicentennial Era — 21 homers, 24 steals, 4.4 WAR — and it’d be historic. Better than anyone not named Ripken or Trammell, and those guys were still in the minors. (Who was the best SS in 1977? WAR didn’t exist then, but by that, it was Bert Campaneris at that same 4.4 WAR level, but he did it on an empty batting average and good defense. Homers then? The leading primary SS homer leaders were Garry Templeton, Bucky F. Dent, and Dave Concepcion, all with 8. EIGHT!)
It’s all context. While people were pounding the table about sabermetrics and pace of game, we ended up with some consequences we din’t ask for. Pitchers aren’t soft. They’re overloaded. The game is faster and more volatile. That’s not worse. That’s life as much as baseball now. Nostalgia is a disease.
Now, for the previews. This is how I’ll do this - each of the teams coming off bye will get a full breakdown. Teams that won through will only get updates, though you can go to the Wild Card preview to see the full breakdown I did earlier this week. I have elected to put this out ahead of final rosters being set, so things may change, but it’s mostly noted here.
Milwaukee Brewers
I’ve long sung the praises of the Milwaukee medical staff, so why change now? This team is largely healthy, with two key exceptions. The downside is that those two - Jose Quintana (calf) and Brandon Woodruff (elbow) - would have been key starters for the team, potentially the G2/G3 guys, but now, things get a bit more complex for Pat Murphy, Rickie Weeks, and Evan Martin. There’s going to be a bit of surprise that Chad Patrick goes in G3 over Jacob Misiorowski, but Patrick has been better late, if not as exciting, and the limits on Misiorowski on innings and pitches complicate his use. That one of the Brewers’ playoff starters is functionally a depth guy who’s been traded twice and played D2 college ball is testament to their development and scouting. Much of the same is true with Quinn Priester, who didn’t crack the Pirates or Red Sox rotations when he was there.
Quintana threw a sim game and late word is that he’ll be on the roster and go for G4. That’s a bit bold given the leg injury, but the Brewers aren’t afraid to swim against the current and I’m told they believe he can give them solid innings, though shifting him to a later “if necessary” game is a bit of a hedge.
Misiorowski will be available in relief, I’m told, though his first MLB relief outing at the end of the season was rocky. Think of him as more a middle guy than a high leverage guy at this stage. He’s at nearly 130 innings on the season, so even if he draws a start, he would be very limited and functionally an opener.
In the pen, Trevor Megill came back, but the Brewers might not go to him in leverage situations just yet, which could be fine. Using him earlier and letting Abner Uribe and Jared Koenig could open up interesting and valuable usage. Using the “closer” early has always been something we know can change a game - why save your best reliever for a situation that might not happen if the game is on the line in the fifth? Megill’s elbow, Nick Mears’ back, and Quintana’s calf will all be closely maintained and watched.
On the player side, the team is largely healthy with only Christian Yelich a long-term maintenance issue. The team has had bumps and bruises, but few major injuries, allowing them to match up, platoon, and kitchen sink their opposition. There’s a lot of young talent knocking on the door, so a lot of this “found talent” is going to be forced out, interesting given how well they played, but necessary and smart. Don’t be surprised to see the Brewers back here again next year with a very different lineup.
Philadelphia Phillies
Even after some late season injury stacks and the JDA-enforced absence of Jose Alvarado, this is as complete as the Phillies have been, with one big exception. The loss of Zach Wheeler would crush a lot of teams, but … maybe not. If starters really are less important, does that make aces more or less important? The Phils were already deep enough that Andrew Painter never got a cup of coffee and Taijuan Walker is in the pen. They can go through the playoffs with what they have easily and Aaron Nola could easily be the one on the outside looking in if they go with a short set. Call it unsentimental, but I think if you tried to sell “No Wheeler or Nola in the playoffs” at the start of the season you’d have found few buyers.
The pen, absent Alvarado, is also lacking Jordan Romano, who’d faded after initially taking over from Alvarado. The trade for Jhoan Duran is functionally the answer there, but whether the pen will get Nola and Walker Buehler remains in question. Aside from that, the pen should exist much as it has and of any team, this one might get the least work at the front.
With Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, and Edmundo Sosa back healthy - a good minimization and timing job by the Philly medical staff - there’s few questions on the player side. Johan Rojas is out and wasn’t likely to make the squad, while the team might have to decide on who the backup catcher is or if they carry three (unlikely). While there’s some recurrence risk with the infielders, sources tell me that all are fine and that while Turner’s still not going to steal as much, he’s having no issues with his quickness and that a big play on the bases will be “instinctual.”
Aside from not being constructed exactly like many would have expected, the Phillies are healthy and ready at another run. While many think a Phillies-Dodgers series could determine the eventual pennant, there’s just too much randomness to really believe that. It should, however, be a blockbuster series with a ton of fire and talent on the field. That’s good for ball.
Seattle Mariners
The fact that Cal Raleigh went full Brady Anderson this year is a great story. Look, I don’t know that this is his career year, but he’s age-28, a catcher, and I’d rather enjoy his run than analyze it. Give credit to the medical staff and Dan Wilson for keeping him healthy and fresh for 159 games, plus the luck it takes to keep one of those foul tips from breaking something or rattling the brain.
What’s missed in the Raleigh-mania is that this is a really good, really complete Mariners team. The pitching staff is loaded, Julio Rodriguez was a face-of-the-game candidate not long ago and his ‘off year’ was pretty darn good. Jerry DiPoto made bold moves at the deadline
The M’s might have more pitching talent than anyone, so full credit to their pitching development, which has always been good but very strong under DiPoto’s watch. While there were often small injuries to this staff, they minimized them, used depth and rest smartly, and never overloaded a balanced but not dominant pen. There’s even more depth coming, with Kade Anderson and Jurrangelo Cijntje coming quick. Bryan Woo is dealing with the shoulder/pectoral issue and will throw on Thursday to decide - early word is it went well, but they’re watching to see how he recovers. My feel on this is that as a starter, he’ll pitch and even a short outing wouldn’t be the end of the world, so I think he’ll be on the roster and in the rotation.
The pen is not as exciting, but as effective. The M’s don’t have assistant pitching coaches - they have pitching strategists. (Really)! Call it what you want, and the M’s have a bunch of coaches, but it’s worked well and many around the league will interview some of those assistants to either steal or at least get a look at what they’re doing. I’m not sure it’s that easy, but in the short term, look for this healthy and rested pen to be a major advantage as long as the M’s are playing.
On the player side, losing Ryan Bliss for the season early forced adjustments, though his skill set would be nice here. Victor Robles is much the same, though he’s back with the shoulder only occasionally an issue. If he’s a valid pinch hitter, that’s an amplified skill in the post-season. Josh Naylor is more of a concern. He doesn’t hit lefties, but the Tigers only have one strong lefty in the pen and no one hits Tarik Skubal anyway. Naylor’s groin issue at the end of the season was considered mild and the rest should have helped.
Toronto Blue Jays
Bo Bichette is really the key question for the Jays and nothing comes close. They’ll go with Shane Bieber for G1 in what could be the best deadline acquisition ever, especially if the Jays move on with the Guardians, well, not.
On the player side, Bichette’s knee will keep him out for the ALDS, but the Jays are hopeful that he’ll begin running during the series. If he returns, he’ll be braced so the team might end up using him at DH, which would cost them their normal 2B platoon - Andres Gimenez and Ernie Clement would both need to play. It would also force George Springer into the field, where his back can act up at any time. Anthony Santander only got a short cameo at the end of the season, and he wasn’t great. His bat would be a big boost and reward the signing if he can turn it on in October. Ty France played in the Jays intrasquad game on Thursday, so he has a chance to be activated as well.
It looked to be a short rotation, but late word is that Chris Bassitt will be active. We’ll see if that pushes Trey Yesavage to the pen and if that alters where they put Max Scherzer. My guess is that Bassitt will go G3, Scherzer one back to G4, and while Bieber would come back around for G5, that’s very likely to be a whole-staff game in reality. Jose Berrios (elbow) is out, but he was likely headed for the pen anyway.
That pen is otherwise intact. Nick Sandlin (shoulder) has been out since July, but everyone else is available. That will create some decisions in the pen, where they’ll only need so many from their usual 13-man staff. The choice will depend a lot on who they face - more lefties if it’s the Yankees, given their weakness there. Do not be surprised to see the Jays deploy Eric Lauer early in any games against the Yankees or hold Brendon Little for the end.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers come out of the only short series with no issues. Shohei Ohtani didn’t have to pitch, no one else was tested, and the only question is how they set up their rotation. Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow remain options, but neither has to be locked in just yet with the decision to go with Ohtani in G1. Roki Sasaki pitched late in G2 and well, but there’s really no indication of whether he really will go in late leverage, or just went late to get in the game.
Because of off-days, the Dodgers will be able to come around with a three-man, starting with Ohtani, then coming back to Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The assumption now is that Tyler Glasnow would be G4, but G5 - a week after G1 - could rotate back to Ohtani or be there for Clayton Kershaw, or even Snell on four days rest. If Kershaw were to not pitch for two weeks plus, it would be much tougher to integrate him back in, but not impossible.
On the player side, Max Muncy was able to play and had no setbacks, while the rest of the lineup was solid. There’s really no issues here besides Will Smith, who won’t be able to catch during the longer series. Will the Dodgers be willing to go with three catchers again? Ohtani’s presence opens up the roster spot so my guess is yes.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs finally won one at Wrigley and did so by taxing the Padres bullpen. Mason Miller not making it in has to be considered a win for Craig Counsell and his plan, which shifts forward now to the Brewers, who they know all too well. (See what I did there, Swifties?) The biggest question heading in was the play of Kyle Tucker, who was fine if not significant. There’s no sign he’ll move back to the outfield, but the Cubs were fine as currently constructed.
There’s almost no questions here and what are seem minor. Will Owen Caissie be activated after his concussion? Will the Cubs bring Miguel Amaya back over Moises Ballesteros? Cade Horton is likely out until next round and even then, it’s a bit of a question mark. Aside from that, the team in the ALDS should be roughly the same was the Wild Card round.
New York Yankees
The Yankees stayed steady, went with a rookie, and got it done to move on once again. Cam Schlittler and his near Rivera-level cutter/sinker mix dominated, as it should given the velocity and movement, pushing the team to the next round and forcing questions the Red Sox really didn’t want to answer (like how many will opt out.)
As they now head to another familiar foe in Toronto, the Yankees should have no major issues after the intense three games. Aaron Judge’s elbow was never a significant issue and his hitting looks as normal as it can. Cody Bellinger was seen limping after the game, but reports indicate it’s minor. Everything else should be as it was, including the rotation set up. We may see Luis Gil in a G4, but that was always the plan.
Detroit Tigers
Not only did the Tigers make it through the first round, they made it through relatively unscathed. Tarik Skubal is still the key, but they went hard on the pen and are likely to need the same. The AL doesn’t get the immediate off-day, so they’ll need Skubal to go deep in Game 1 if possible. In his one appearance against them back in July, he had one of his shortest outings, going 87 pitches in just five innings, taking the loss to Luis Castillo.
They may get Colt Keith and Matt Vierling back which would open up some options and, in theory, improve the offense. The rest came through healthy and it’s not clear exactly who’d get dropped. One scout who was at the Tigers’ games this week wondered if Keith would get the nod over Javier Baez, who he said “looked like the good [version] this week.” (Keith would play third, pushing Zach McKinistry back to short.)
Predictions:
Yankees in 4
Mariners in 4
Dodgers in 5
Brewers in 4
(I was 2-2 in the previous round, fwiw.)
Playoff Cuts:
* There’s a lot of managerial jobs open, some very much a surprise. Add in that Bill Schmidt walks away from the Rockies and we now have a new GM job open, albeit one that few will want. I know, there’s only 30, but I had a long conversation with someone inside the game last night about whether to even take an interview there.
I’m more surprised that the Angels didn’t stick with Ray Montgomery than Ron Washington, who had both results and health issues. Montgomery is almost an AJ Hinch type, in that he’s done a bit of everything, now including managing, and will be snapped up. If Perry Minasian is next, the Angels become another “is it worth it?” job like the Rockies and for much the same reason. There’s a lot of rumblings now about Albert Pujols being named manager, with Bob Nightingale tossing out Michael Young and Torii Hunter as other possibles. Yeesh.
We’ve seen names being attached, like Bruce Bochy heading to San Francisco. Not sure if I buy that one, but I get it. Skip Schumacher is going to be tied to every job, but he’s just one guy. Joe Maddon is out there, as is David Ross, who’s been vocal about wanting to come back. I could see Ross working well in a Buster Posey-led environment. With Dan Wilson and Steven Vogt working well quickly, that type is going to get looked at. Hank Conger is a name that keeps coming up, as is Nick Hundley. Matthew LeCroy is the Triple-A manager for the Nats and fits the pattern.
Bench coach is always considered a manager-in-training and we have a couple here. Walt Weiss (ATL), Ryan Flaherty (CHC) and Craig Albernaz (CLE) are going to be named a lot, with Weiss very possibly just stepping up. Those tend to be good interviews with a chance to impress these days.
* One thing I don’t know given the current state of affairs is whether teams will be required to follow the “Selig Rule”, which was baseball’s version of the Rooney Rule of the NFL, requiring minority candidates get at least an interview before a hire. There have been exceptions to this, like hiring from immediately inside the org, but with baseball folding up some of its DEI programs, I couldn’t get an official answer on this. I was told by a trusted source that the policies are in place, just not noted publicly.
* The Rockies are casting a “very wide net” in the early days of their GM search. A key source told me several of the names are going to be outsiders in the hopes that ownership will hear a “bold, cohesive plan” that fits with the organizations “founding principles.” Yes, it’s a lot of buzzwords, so you’ll have to take my word for it that it seems anything but that.
The early names on the normal side of things will be Thad Levine and Andy McKay, both with prior time in Colorado. Dayton Moore and Jon Daniels have done the job, if not there, but don’t expect this to be a quick process. I’ll be very curious to watch this one play out over the next few weeks, especially with teams being careful not to step on any playoff news cycles. I’ve heard some of the other names and if true, they’re not just out of the box, but way outside.
* One of the things I find interesting is the times that have been set for the series. It tells you a bit about priorities and number one is television, but with four games, I think it’s an excellent opportunity to counter the argument that the World Series will be played too late for kids to watch. We’ve had great games so far and I expect the same from this round and while “it’s not the World Series” is valid, the World Series isn’t always the best series. (It’s time to do things like re-seed or give more advantages to winning teams, though I’ll acknowledge that would be easier after expansion.) There’s going to be some great afternoon baseball, on the weekend and not head to head with the NFL.
* If you notice my predictions above, it would set up not just a TV ratings narrative (and yes, Fox would much rather have NY-LA than MIL-SEA), but a financial narrative. “Only the big clubs can win” works with a bi-coastal big payroll rematch, while little things like financial management, smart front offices, and player development work if we get “small market” Milwaukee or Seattle. Please, someone tell me how Seattle is a small market? With ownership going hard at a salary cap and as hard at avoiding a salary floor, I know which one the owners might be rooting for.