UTK Playoff Preview 2025
League Championship Series
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Fatigue is baseball’s hidden enemy. It doesn’t show up in the box score or the highlight reel, and it doesn’t trigger an alert on the scoreboard, but it’s there. It’s creeping into the delivery, slowing down recovery, shifting biomechanics one imperceptible degree at a time. You don’t see it until it breaks something, and by then it’s too late. The tools we’ve relied on to understand pitchers - velocity, spin, workload, effort, force - give us sharp images, but fatigue is still a blur. It lives in the spaces between snapshots. That’s the problem and that’s why the most important tool in baseball’s future might be something that doesn’t live on the field at all. Something called a digital twin.
A digital twin is a dynamic, real-time simulation of a living system - in this case, a pitcher. It’s built from data streams: biomechanics, workload logs, soft tissue diagnostics, strength ratios, motion capture, sleep, recovery markers, even hormone levels if you want to go that deep. The model updates constantly. Every throw, every rep, every deviation from baseline feeds into the twin. The result is not a static avatar, but a system that evolves. You can test how a shoulder responds to throwing a slider after 35 pitches at max effort. You can simulate how a small change in hip rotation affects elbow torque over a bullpen session. You can model risk, not just performance.
Right now, we chase fatigue with proxies like velocity drop, command loss, release point drift, and the ol’ “How you feeling, pal?” on the mound. Those all come late in the sequence. A digital twin can surface early signals, the micro-adaptations a pitcher’s body makes under stress. Maybe his lead knee is extending two frames earlier than baseline on the very first pitch. Maybe he’s losing internal rotation in his shoulder over time. That’s how fatigue hides! It’s not in the number of pitches at all, but in the patterns that change while trying to maintain output.
Imagine a pitcher who’s been ramping up velocity over the course of spring training. His stats look great. His mechanics haven’t changed in any glaring way, but his digital twin shows rising asymmetry in his trunk rotation paired with a subtle delay in scapular retraction. It’s a red flag. We can test to see what happens with another 10 or 20 pitches and how the system breaks down before the pitchers has to. The model compares it to past data — from that pitcher or from others — and finds a match: a common biomechanical profile that shows up roughly three weeks before elbow injuries. That’s not fantasy. That’s how aviation uses digital twins to anticipate engine failure. That’s how Formula 1 uses them to model wear in suspension components and tires under race conditions. It’s time baseball caught up.
Something I call “the treatment curve” is real. Modern medicine is so good it’s hidden just how often we’re breaking these arms, but the trend lines are catching up. Injuries are rising and fatigue is winning. The only way to fight back is to see it coming. Not in hindsight, not through rehab, but before the ligament gives. We don’t have jetpacks, but we have the math and the computing power now. A digital twin won’t prevent every injury, but it might finally let us understand when the slope starts to turn or when the arm that looks fine is already fading. That’s the moment that matters. That’s the one we keep missing.
Fatigue is real for all four of these teams so let’s check in on how healthy they are and what injuries will affect the AL and NL Championship Series’:
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
The Dodgers might not have followed the expectations, but it’s hard to say they went off plan. Ok, a walk and an error aren’t how they normally do things and their pitching worked about as backwards as it could, which says more about their ability to adjust than hew to the binder.
Losing Tanner Scott for the NLCS isn’t that much of a blow, especially if Roki Sasaki really is the closer now, or the high leverage guy, or however we codify what the Dodgers are doing. This reminds me a lot of the Andrew Miller usage from 2016, when he seemed unstoppable in those late game playoff situations, Terry Francona dropping him in at will, save situation or not. There are questions about Sasaki’s recovery more than his stamina - it wasn’t that long ago he was built up for starting before the conversion, but he doesn’t often do short-rest or back-to-backs. The playoff schedule limits that a bit, but not entirely.
The rest of the bullpen, as it were, is much the same. Tyler Glasnow was great in G4, but shows Dave Roberts and Mark Prior are willing to use everyone in relief, save Shohei Ohtani (probably.) Kirby Yates (hamstring) and Michael Kopech (knee) were hoped to be able to return and with the bulk of the bullpen out of the trust zone, that becomes more likely if they’re at least viable. There’s also the question of Clayton Kershaw - do they go with effectiveness or respect? He is a lefty, he did have one good inning and if Yates and Kopech aren’t ready, there’s plenty of room. Justin Wrobleski replaced Scott last round, but we’ll see if he’s needed again or if there’s room if there’s any comebacks here.
The players are all relatively healthy. Tommy Edman’s chronic ankle is enough of an issue that he won’t play the outfield absent an emergency, but how they fill in the roster (Alex Call over Michael Conforto) is an adjustment. Part of this is carrying three catchers, but Will Smith has shown no ill effects. Behind the scenes, there’s not much the medical staff can do for his hands. No, he’s not getting injections. There’s a chance they drop one of the other catchers, but it would be a risk over a 7-game series and they’ve paid no penalty for it thus far.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Call it a bullpen game if you want but for someone that pitched the concept of an “opener” to the Brewers back in 2006, it felt like the world was coming around, if only for one day. The downside of an opener — says the guy who tried to do this with a college team — is that if they give up the slightest hint of anything, the team deflates. When Trevor Megill gave up the homer, I was worried, but as normal, the Brewers came back through and made the key plays down the stretch. It was a game of very small margins, but now, against the Dodgers, that’s the team that by definition should have all the margins. Fine, the Brewers are used to that dynamic and no one pay attention to the fact that Mark Attanasio owns an English football team in the second level (Norwich City) when the Dodgers famously own Chelsea, Strasbourg, the Lakers, and your grandmother’s life insurance payout.
This isn’t even the right metaphor, given the transitional nature of this team. This tossed together team that Pat Murphy and his staff have made work is a bunch of young studs (Jackson Chourio, Jacob Misiorowski) and older players that are supplemented by a whole bunch of, lets say it out loud, middling players that fill a role and are doing well at that. I am not diminishing Bryce Turang to say that he has holes in his game and that his home run made Milwaukee jump in their collective seats. The difference, I believe, is that the Brewers organization is committed to an ideal that won’t overvalue Turang’s contribution to however far this goes to block someone like Jesus Made, Luis Pena, Cooper Pratt, or anyone.
But that’s next year. In the now, this is a team that has some good starters - Fastball Freddy Peralta, a healthy Jose Quintana, but not Brandon Woodruff, not only out for the NLCS but very likely throughout the playoffs and perhaps beyond, a rough end to what was a nice comeback for him and the Brewers medical staff. It leaves them in a very rough situation over a seven game series, but in this modern game, who can go seven? The Brewers will set themselve up for the first three, maybe four, and see where things lie then. Peralta, Quinn Priester, Quintana, some mix of relievers to go with Jacob Misiorowki and Aaron Ashby all mix up into some sort of cocktail that makes at least as much sense at the Dodgers’ plan. In essence, it’s necessity level chaos versus some sort of dubbed-english six-man monstrosity that is wearing the skin of Fernando Valenzuela. It’s a rotation only Ryan Murphy could love.
The player side of the equation is almost the opposite. It’s all simple and understandable. Jackson Chourio is still dealing not only with the hamstring strain, but the lack of trust he has in his leg in his first serious injury. The medical staff got him back to function and over four games, he was fine. Does he trust it yet? Even they’re not sure, nor is he, but physically, there’s some confidence. Aside from that, the full complement of Brewers platoons is available in their various forms and formats.
The pen? It’s been an all hands affair and I dont think that will change as much as adjust to the needs of a best-of-seven. Openers, bulk men, Misiorowski coming in for three planned innings of 100 mph nastiness, is as much of a challenge as the Dodgers have with Roki Sasaki and I’ll challenge that model might need to be followed or at least adjusted to. The Brewers have shown willingness to shift from orthodoxy, but we’ll see just how weird they’re willing to get ahead of win-or-go-home games. Everyone here is healthy, but also seasonally fatigued and few in roles in which they’re used to. If that’s good or bad, we’ll only know in hindsight.
This wasn’t the team the Brewers planned to have here, but the Brewers’ plan was to be adjustable, flexible, and open to doing what it took to win, both in season and in the short series that make up the playoffs. Seven is more than five and randomness should lessened, but the Brewers have embraced that, even more so than the Dodgers. If any team can take analytics and turn volatitliy into a strategic advantage, it’s the Brewers. (Though, if any team can counter that, it’s the Dodgers. Check!)
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Jays made it to the ALCS without their best player, at least by some numbers. Bo Bichette and his sprained knee needed time, but is missing their first series (and the bye week) enough? There’s been progress and a source says the final test will be running the bases. Behind the scenes, he’s done a lot, including hitting, but whether he can do what he normally does braced is a question. One option would be to start him at DH - not ideal for flexibility, but plausible. The risk here is that Bichette can’t play in a given game and the Jays are down a bat. They’ll be running the numbers and working the sims to figure out just what they can do, but someone is going to have to make a final decision. Late word is that Bichette just isn’t ready to help and that there was enough uncertainty to leave him off.
Another question that could be key is how far Trey Yesavage is allowed to go. He killed his first outing, but was on a hard limit. He’s just shy of 120 innings, but 50 of those were in A-ball. There’s no doubt he’ll go, likely in G2, but going into the sixth, let alone past it is out. That means the Jays risk wearing down their pen and getting looks early. Having gone to five games, the Tigers will be worse off and in the same situation, so call this one a push.
It’s not just the rookie that’s a pitching question. How far Shane Bieber can go is definitely a worry, as is what they can get from Chris Bassit. All indications are that he’ll be back for the ALCS, but the recurrence risk with his lower back issue is very real. Again, the worry is a short outing that pressures the pen, but Bassitt would likely be the G3 and following the off-day, which helps some.
More than most, this series might not turn on moments, but on availability. Relievers are going to be gassed so the MVP might be a Theragun or Marc Pro. Despite the fatigue, the pen is going to be the same as in the LDS for the Jays, which isn’t a bad thing. With Max Scherzer likely available for the pen in at least the early games, with Tommy Nance and Justin Bruihl off, we’ll have to see exactly where John Schneider goes if he has to make an early move.
SEATTLE MARINERS
There’s no way to say this was about momentum. The “flailing” Tigers took the “surging” Mariners to extra innings of Game 5 of the NLDS and … was it a bullpen game if the starters lasted six? This was old school, make them win, beat the matchups, stand up to the moment baseball that we should all love, even happening at 1am Eastern. The tension works in highlights too.
The biggest fan of this game? The Jays. The Mariners have to celebrate a bit, pack up, fly to Toronto for a Sunday game, and figure out how bleeped up their pitching is. Talk all you want about the bye week and it’s effect, but it’s those extra days inside the series that, even with the built in off days, can be powerful. Win in Game 3 instead of 5, 5 instead of 7 and the effect is notable, noticeable, and very real.
There is no real injuries on the player side and the team came out of the series with relative health. A source that does video and advance scouting for a team not in the playoffs told me he thought catching in the playoffs was wearing on Cal Raleigh and that 15-inning game won’t help. At 8 for 21 with four walks, I’m not sure I’m seeing that in the results or his bat speed, but it’s worth mentioning I think for those of you that play live outcome bets.
Bryan Woo (pectoral) threw a bullpen ahead of Friday’s marathon and things went well enough that Jerry DiPoto told the media that Woo will be on the ALCS roster. How he fits remains to be seen, with role and readiness as much a factor. Given the usage of both Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo, the Mariners could elect to go with five starters and juggle whoever isn’t pitching or has some gas in the tank to be a designated pen arm. I can’t imagine Woo could go G1 having thrown some on Friday, but that may end up a pen game so maybe he’s involved. (Late: It’s Bryce Miller getting the start after going just 55 in G4. Don’t expect him to go deep. Woo is scheduled for G3 on Wednesday.)
The rest is just fatigue, both the seasonal kind and the kind after 15 innings and a cross-country flight. I wonder if the M’s could find a loophole in the roster rules that would let them call up Jurrangelo Cijntje and get two fresh arms!
QUICK CUTS:
I just realized in three of the four LCS sites, weather isn’t an issue. Three roofs in play and Los Angeles remains Los Angeles. Good for TV, at least.
The Rangers signed Skip Schumacher quickly, as expected. Everyone else? Well, they’re waiting and doing things quietly. The Braves aren’t staying all in house, but mostly, so they can be quiet and decide how many externals they want (with most wanted candidates unavailable yet.) The Nats are the one I’m watching closely and feels like the pivot point for the rest of the market, though it feels like Albert Pujols to the Angels is going to be the first done. That one, though, is either it happens there or nowhere. One scout asked me “If I’m Albert and the Angels are already paying me, do I want that job where he’s seen it firsthand or wait on St Louis? Does he think he knows better than the managers he paid for? If the answer is yes, that’s disqualifying or should be.” I’m not as against it as many seem to be, but it seems on brand for the Angels, whether it works or not.
Munetaka Murakami is going to be posted by Yakult, making the infielder available in what is already a strong class. If Alex Bregman opts out as expected and a team sees him as a 3B, Murakami is right there, with caveats about adjustment time, his defense translating, but with more raw power. The Mariners, Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets are going to be on the list for virtually everyone and have the money to blow out, if they choose to spend. The Yankees have the clearest need, but if Pete Alonso leaves, there’s a need there for the Mets at likely less money. There’s some wild cards here - Washington has need, a new GM, and could use a splash, let alone a player they could build a marketing campaign around. The same is true in St Louis. This off-season could be really good.
I’ve been doing a lot of work on injury models and I’ve cracked the code on decay rates for the three year average that’s the accepted model. I prefer five year rates, personally, but those haven’t been available in a usable format until this year. (2020 screwed the data set.) It’s not a huge leap, but Claude’s coding assistance made what used to be months of work and testing take about a week. Amazing what happens when your time frees way up, aside from games! That said, as with most models, we’re talking about fractions, decimal points. Going from 99.8 to 99.9. The juice is barely worth the squeeze until there’s new or different data.