UTK Playoff Preview 2025

World Series Health Report

Note: I’m pushing this on Thursday, so rosters are not finalized. If there’s some massive unexpected change, I’ll update it on the website. I feel like I have a good handle on where rosters are and where there’s a possibility, I address both. I feel good about it.

One we expected. The other, not as much, but an historic season and surge was followed by a sweep through the ALCS. Now, with the inevitable Los Angeles Dodgers facing the Seattle Mariners in the World Series, how much will health determine the winner?

I’d like to say none, but that’s never been true. We see pitchers down or at the very least fatigued, we saw Toronto not miss Bo Bichette and Milwaukee miss Brandon Woodruff - though I’m not sure how much difference either would have made - and with the Dodgers historic pitching run fueled in part by the injuries and necessities of a complex season, it’s easy to both say health is the absolute key and that the players on the field make the moments that determine games. Baseball’s history is written as much in ice packs as in innings pitched, in taped wrists and cortisone shots as much as clutch hits. The story of October is often who’s still standing and how long they can fake being fine.

Think back to Curt Schilling’s bloody sock in 2004. It’s one of those moments where medicine, myth, and desperation collided under the lights. The tendon sheath that tore in his ankle wasn’t supposed to hold. It barely did. Yet the Red Sox rode that defiance to a championship that felt impossible two weeks before. Go back further and you find Kirk Gibson limping to the plate in 1988, a pair of battered knees held together by adrenaline and a medical staff’s black magic. One swing, one hobble, and the image outlasted the pain.

Even the near-misses tell us something. The 2019 Nationals were built on durability; Stephen Strasburg made every start and carried his postseason workload like a man cashing in all the years of innings management that preceded it. He hasn’t been the same since. Madison Bumgarner’s 2014 run of five starts, two relief appearances, and one exhausted ace seemed heroic, but it broke him. The World Series isn’t just a test of skill; it’s a pressure cooker that reveals what’s left after the gas tank is empty.

That’s what makes this year fascinating. The Dodgers have played like a franchise that’s finally solved the endurance equation: spread innings, limit fatigue, engineer recovery, and proft! But the line between innovation and overcomplication is thin. Their dominance on the mound this postseason has been almost eerie, but it’s a tower built on load management and risk mitigation. The Jays built their staff on a rookie, a trade for a guy that hadn’t made a start, and a couple smart free agent signings. Homegrown? Anything but for both teams.

It’s tempting to treat October health as luck, that the wrong step, the wrong pitch, the right ligament holding one more time is luck. But sport is changing and teams track fatigue now like they track spin rate and the future of the sport might be written less by training rooms and more by data and dark arts.

When this series ends and the champagne dries, the real work begins. The offseason is when scar tissue gets measured and careers recalibrated. We’ll dig into who survived, who didn’t, and how the cost of the 2025 season adds up in surgeries and rehab hours. Later this winter, MLB will hold one of its most consequential meetings on pitching injuries — what’s real, what’s preventable, and what’s next. Under The Knife will be there, in the room. You’ll want to ride along, but for now, let’s get to the World Series:

DODGERS

In ways, this was the plan. An historic set of pitchers dominating teams, supported by an MVP-laden offense, with Shohei Ohtani likely to stack up more trophies and leave our jaws dropped. Andrew Friedman built a team backwards, or at least differently than he had. If the playoffs are a crapshoot, just survive the regular season, which is what they did. Dave Roberts and Mark Prior juggled pitchers and survived a late season bullpen meltdown by suddenly switching things. Rely on starters, let them go deep, and count on the late season transformation of Roki Sasaki. I said at the start of the season that the six-deep plus rotation would convert to bullpen strength at some point, but no one expected it to happen just like this.

Can the Dodgers pitching staff continue to be historic? I’m not sure anyone can follow up that NLCS run. The Brewers were swept, yes, but never seemed out of it until Ohtani took over G4. If the four starters do what they did, no team can beat them, this year or any other. They’re healthy, rested, and get very interesting if the Mariners do make this go deeper. Let’s assume they’d turn over Snell and Yamamoto for G5/G6, leaving Glasnow for G7 … and Ohtani? Tell me they wouldn’t let him close that last game, shortening things for Sasaki or letting him come in earlier.

Speaking of Sasaki, more than a few around the league wonder if he’ll be next year’s closer. Tanner Scott was brought in to close, but they’ve always been flexible and he gets paid the same, closing or not. Sources I texted with were mixed on this and few thought the Dodgers wouldn’t at least start off next season with him building to the rotation. “It’s easier to go backwards than build in season, unless he really likes Oklahoma,” said one.

Tanner Scott will be a late decision depending on how he looks in workouts this week. His issue is behind him, so to speak, but pushing, throwing, and sweating are far different than what Scott’s been doing. He could be an asset to the pen for sure, if only by removing someone the coaching staff is out on (and there’s a couple possibilities), but it will be the last roster decision made. It doesn’t appear as if Kirby Yates or Michael Kopech will make it back, with Clayton Kershaw a possibility for the karma.

The rest of the bullpen is healthy and very rested, but largely because the Dodgers are flat scared of it. It’s been used here and there. Blake Treinin has been useful, but if there’s any weakness, it’s that one bad start exposes the pen in ways that simply didn’t happen in the NLCS. The cure is simple - do it again, starters - but not likely. One game is going to get away from the Dodgers because of this, though I can’t say which one. You’ll know.

There’s no real new injuries here and the rest should help the general fatigue levels. There’s a lot of maintenance, with Will Smith being the key there. Catching more hasn’t set him back with the bat, which was the major concern. Assuming he continues to be valuable, it’s a big win for the medical staff having gotten him to this point. I also want to question here how much value was lost if Smith isn’t there. We value catchers better now with framing and defense, but looking at the last three catchers standing, they’re offense first. With one-leg down showing real durability improvements, a Cal Raleigh can play nearly every day, so how much is a Ben Rortvedt or an Austin Hedges going to keep up? Defense has value, but I’d like to know how close to correct the WAR model is - Fangraphs has Hedges positive, B-Ref as negative - and if WAR itself is correct. If I’m projecting forward, I’d rather have a beefy power prospect who’s tolerable-to-average with the glove than the next Jeff Mathis.

BLUE JAYS

You’ll forgive me if I had this written up for the Mariners after Game 6 and .. delete delete delete. The Blue Jays have been up and down all year and John Schneider and his Oris Pro Diver — there’s a story there I’d like to know — head to the World Series with most of his bullets intact. He used Kevin Gausmann and Chris Bassitt in relief, wasn’t scared to ‘overuse’ Louis Varland or Jeff Hoffman, and is generally creative. The World Series is the ultimate up and with talent and health, anything’s possible.

Ok, the biggest question is George Springer. The knee looked fine as he hit the winning homer, but it looked bad in Game 6. There’s more going on here than anyone’s going to say right now - I guarantee you I will have this story in January instead of October - but buy Hyperice stock. The bump they’ll get from the sharp focus on their heat and vibration knee sleeve will be nice. (Are they even public? Do they want to sponsor UTK?) If Springer’s knee is relatively fine, just bruised, then time will help and he’s shown he’s at least briefly in the zone. As a DH, there’s more room for error, but little sign he’ll degrade from here. That is complicated a bit by the next issue.

There is also the question of Bo Bichette. I tried to think of the last player who just popped up later in the playoffs and … Adalberto Mondesi? Vastly different situation, vastly different possible impact, but it gives you an idea how unique this situation is. If he’s limited to DH, that makes Springer’s knee more of an issue and squeezes a roster that’s made it this far without him, though there’s little question he’s an improvement. John Schneider hasn’t gone too deep with his bench and has a player like Isaac Kiner-Falefa who extends the flexibility by himself. Bichette’s knee becomes an issue of mobility and stability - is he stable at the plate? can he run credibly? - that should be very binary. Late word is that he’s taking grounders at second, but a new position in the World Series would be bold.

On the pitching side, everything is set up to follow on where the Jays were. The rotation will rotate and with a couple days rest, even after a Game 7, the Jays are likely to be close to standard. They’ll go with Trey Yesavage in G1 - no pressure, rook - and could go with Kevin Gausman in G2, setting them to come back around for G6/G7. (I’ve heard some rumors of Max Scherzer in G2, since he’s familiar with the venue and not intimidated by the crowd, but so is Gausman.) With Chris Bassitt in the mix and Shane Bieber not locking anything down with his performance, there’s variability here, especially if Toronto’s strategists see some advantages. Yesavage’s workload is a long term concern, but given how long it’s been since the Jays were in the Series, they’re willing to take some risk. Some, not a lot, so don’t expect him to ever go more than a couple times around.

The bullpen is well used, but is that better than untrusted? I think not. A couple days of rest along with a favorable schedule should set the bullpen up to be effective, if not optimal. Louis Varland has been well used, but he’s not “familiar” anymore, if John Smoltz’s latest hobby horse is to be ridden further. Schneider has shown a willingness to be creative (ie, use Scherzer and Bassitt as needed) and that should patch over any weaknesses. The off-days should help, with more built in to the schedule, so overwork really isn’t an issue.

Let me say one thing on Scherzer since he’s back in the World Series. Last time he was here, you’ll remember that he got very amped, as he does, and in his second start, showed early signs of fatigue. While Scherzer is often cited for his drive and fire, such as screaming at Schneider, eyes blazing, from the mound, there is an energy cost to that. When Scherzer gets his adrenaline up, he doesn’t seem to recover as well. Even with the extra rest, if Scherzer comes out to start in G3 or G4, I think we’ll see something similar.

Quick Cuts:

Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe had his shoulder fixed by team doc Chris Ahmad and the Yankees went out of their way to detail the damage. Will Yankees fans shocked that their team is out and everyone isn’t fired be placated by Volpe having ‘toughed it out’ or will they notice that a hobbled Volpe was still their best option this season? Volpe and Jose Caballero are going to open the season as 1 and 1A, depending on Volpe’s recovery, with George Lombard “not quite there”, per a Yankees source. Lombard’s not far, but early ‘26 belongs to Volpe. Shoulder surgeries like this have come a long way - just look at Cody Bellinger’s success after his for a nearby example.

There’s actually been less in the way of post-seasons surgeries than I expected. Some of this is merely it not getting reported, but some of it is real. I asked two surgeons who are exactly the kind that have a locker room of MLB talent in their waiting rooms about now about their perception and both agreed. “There’s less waiting now, not less surgeries,” said one longtime go-to ortho. “You know the numbers aren’t down, so while we see rehab through it, I don’t think we see as many manage through it as we used to.” An example here is Francisco Alvarez, who delayed his thumb surgery. While the last report I can find said surgery was imminent, I can’t get a confirmation it happened. There’s more of these and while it doesn’t mean much until we get a surprise at the start of spring training, it is notable.

Am I more shocked that Albert Pujols isn’t the Angels manager or that Tony Vitiello is now the Giants manager? Probably the former. Vitiello is a confident guy and if Buster Posey’s criteria was “convince me you can beat the Dodgers” then Vitiello even getting an interview set him up for success. I can’t think of a comp here, though recently retired players have had mixed results. The benefit is they “speak the language”, but for a college coach, even one with Vitiello’s success, does he speak the language? I think the advantage will be recreating the transfer portal mentality of a new team, but that’s not the model for MLB. If the Giants are going young, Posey will have to offload a lot of talent and get near-ready returns and that’s not the ideal path to beating a Dodgers team that’s ready to up their payroll even more, but have MVPs locked up for a decade already. As for Kurt Suzuki, he’s a recently retired catcher who’s been special assisting for three years, so he should know the org. Special Assistant remains the best job in the world and yes, I’m available.

Is this going to get Mike Trout traded?

The Dodgers and Guggenheim are making no secret about profitability, as sweeping the Brewers has led to a “you can’t beat the payroll” and “we need a salary cap” discussions with not just owners, but the fans that have been led astray by an historically innumerate media. (To be clear, I mean that over the course of the free agency era, the media has largely sided with owners and incredulously parrots the “can you believe this guy makes a million bucks a year” discussions.) However, the idea that a Shohei Ohtani contract could not only help on the field (and how!) but be profitable off it is a shock to the system. How much is Paul Skenes worth to the Pirates and why haven’t they at least tried to extend him? We’ve seen some early lock up deals and most of them have been huge values. Jackson Chourio and Cal Raleigh aren’t the same, but their contracts are huge assets to their teams, not anchors. There’s not more Ohtanis, but thinking about all the value a team could get from players needs to be pushed rather than salary caps. Call this all the first volley in next off-season’s labor wars.