UTK Flash 12/20/23

Max Scherzer Surgery

The Texas Rangers said on Wednesday morning that Max Scherzer had back surgery to “repair a herniated disc” and that he would be out until July. The type of surgery is unknown, but the most likely surgery would be a microdiscectomy. A fusion, where the disc is removed and the vertebrae are supported by a metal cage is possible, but unusual. Rangers fans might remember a fusion was what ended the career of Prince Fielder. Another example would be Matt Harrison, whose career was ended by a lower back fusion.

Scherzer has a history of back problems. However, both the release and the followups haven’t indicated yet at what anatomical level the surgery was performed. That’s a key piece of information we don’t have. Most of the injuries to baseball players tend to be in the lower spine (marked at L4/L5 and L5/S1, the two lowest disc/joints). A 2019 study showed that 90 percent of baseball players had back pain at some point in their career, and that the average return time from surgery was 8.7 months. That number gives us some indication that Scherzer’s surgery is more likely to have been a micro rather than a fusion.

Scherzer hasn’t been over 180 innings since 2018. Prior to that, he had a run of nine seasons over that mark. Research I did from back in 2004 showed that 190 innings was a key mark, with pitchers showing a kind of inertia there. Pitchers that went over it tend to stay there, until they don’t and then they seldom get back over it. That 190 mark bears a re-check given the shorter outings and lower innings of modern starters. However, Scherzer’s drop has come from oblique, shoulder muscle, and back issues, which could all be interrelated and certainly affected by age and mileage.

This injury leaves the Rangers short on pitching and may force a signing, either of Jordan Montgomery, their World Series hero pitcher, or to up the bidding for another of the remaining free agents. The Rangers have room and a willingness to spend, with about $44m to the threshold. For those asking, Scherzer’s adjusted salary is about $22m, with the Mets picking up about half and no, the contract is uninsured. With a common elimination period of 90 days, it’s not clear there would be much relief for the Rangers even if it was (and it’s not.)

While the team will get Jacob deGrom and new signee Tyler Mahle back from Tommy John at some point in the season, and potentially Scherzer as well, the first half of the season is at least one pitcher shy and lacks depth. Jack Leiter hasn’t developed as hoped, Kumar Rocker is another coming back from elbow reconstruction, and while Jose Corniell was protected from the Rule 5, he hasn’t seen Double-A yet.

At age-39, Scherzer may not be back, or back in diminished capacity. If this is the end, as it was for Harrison, Scherzer is a no-doubt Hall of Famer and one of the best pitchers of the era. He’ll have two rings, three Cy Youngs, and a short wait for his plaque. His Rangers career will be an interesting footnote, but potentially a very short one.