UTK 9/2/20
Free Friday: Playoff Expansion, Late Injury Costs, and more
There was one topic that kept coming up in discussions this week: “Is it more injuries at this time or does it just seem that way?” As the Padres lost two starters, as the Brewers lost relievers, and as almost every other playoff team had to deal with some injury or at the very least players coming back from injury, such as the Yankees, the question is certainly valid.
The answer is very simply yes. Usually, we see a much more settled roster coming into the season, with most teams coasting to the finish, expanded rosters serving as some protection to overuse, and that it’s usually true that the healthiest teams are the ones we see in the playoffs. I know, nothing is normal, but I took a dig in the data and can’t find much in the way of patterns. Late season injuries happen, but not at this rate. They happen, but not to key people.
Even if you adjust the scope and look at where baseball normally is after 60 games, this is a weird pattern. “Pattern” might not be the right word. Hopefully, we never see the likes of 2020 again, so “fluke” might be better.
What’s also interesting is how well teams have adjusted to injuries. It’s one thing for the Astros to have stabilized their rotation and pen after losing Justin Verlander and others for much of the season, but quite another to see the Padres remake their rotation on the fly. About the only cogent thing Alex Rodriguez said in Wednesday’s game was that Giancarlo Stanton is only good when he’s healthy. Baseball is a rhythm sport and for the better part of two years, Stanton hasn’t regularly played. Yet here was Gio Urshela, picking things up and making a big difference.
If there’s a lesson from 2020 for baseball, it’s that depth matters. The Cardinals made the playoffs not because of any one thing, but many. Their resilience was often based n making one roster move after the other, rotating and churning through players that you wouldn’t have considered key back in February. I think we’ll see that going forward as we get less of a fetish for control, the likes of which baseball has fed for years, with super-two manipulation and other weird talent holdbacks, and instead it will be replaced by in-team steps, which are in reality an old school technique, going further back that Earl Weaver, who might have been the last to regularly use it.
But there’s plenty of things to look at in the now, so we’ll do Free Friday a little different. This is all new content today so it’s a bonus to those of you who aren’t yet subscribers. I hope you’ll consider joining, getting the best injury information all week long, directly in your inbox:
Mike Clevenger isn’t “out” of the playoffs. He’s off the roster for the first series, yes, and there’s no guarantee he’ll come back, but the Padres are giving all sorts of mixed signs regarding Clevenger and to a lesser extent, Dinelson Lemet. Clevenger’s biceps injury, then what they’re calling “elbow impingement”, is problematic, but he also made it through a bullpen session that had elements of a sim game. If Clevenger was dealing with an acute ligament or tendon injury, he wouldn’t be up throwing at a high intent. What the team is trying to do is figure out both the root cause of the issue and to figure out how they minimize the symptoms.
The Pads can’t make it through the next series if Clevenger can’t go at least one time in the rotation. He’s unlikely to be the Game 1 starter, for the higher possibility of getting the Game 5 slot as well. What we don’t have yet is any indication that Clevenger is going to throw again, which should be Saturday by a normal schedule. Rehabs during the playoffs aren’t normal, but it’s hard to think he could make a start in just a few days without a successful side session.
Walker Buehler is dealing with a blister, and being a really good young pitcher in 2020. Ken Gurnick has a nice article on the issue, but ignores the caution that big-B baseball universally takes with young pitchers. Pitchers come out early and don’t complete games for more reasons than 2020. We know better than things like the injury nexus now and have tools available to us that were barely dreams in 2003.
At 26, Buehler should be past the worst of overuse possibilities, but the Dodgers aren’t guessing on this. They’re one of the teams that has been very involved with camera-based kinematics and make in-game decisions based on them regularly. That’s likely going on now, for Buehler and others. The fact is that more efficient usage of pitchers is going to become more widespread over the next few years.
Starling Marte is going to try and play through a small fracture at the base of his pinky. The fracture is, I’m told, relatively stable and there’s very little likelihood that he’ll reinjure it in the course of “normal baseball.” The danger is, of course, getting hit again or diving into a base. If you think lightning can’t strike twice, I’ll remind you that Marte just got hit on the helmet in the previous game, causing that odd “ear contusion”, so don’t tell me it can’t happen again. Marte is accepting a risk and dealing with some pain, and will revisit his availability on a day-to-day basis.
Eloy Jimenez came out of the game after his sprained foot became too painful to continue. He had a nice hit prior to this, but it’s unclear what overtaxed the foot - the hit, the running, or the stop at second. I’ve watched the clip a bunch of times and it’s just not clear. The sprain will have a chance to heal, but don’t forget about these. While Jimenez isn’t a speedster, these type of mid foot sprains do have a tendency to linger. As much as we have a normal offseason, the Sox are sure hoping that Jimenez can have one, to build on what’s been an incredible breakthrough for the team.
Garret Crochet has been the story of the last few weeks of this weird season. His electric stuff - 100 mph fastball, 85 wipeout slider - has been as good as I’ve seen, right out of college. Just how good are the four guys drafted ahead of him? But there’s a reason he slipped even that far - he’s never really been healthy and that came up again on Thursday. The early word is that it’s forearm, which we’ve seen a lot this year. Some end up like Justin Verlander - who had Tommy John surgery today - and some come back fine. The Sox are set up to succeed with this kind of player, which doesn’t mean they will, but baseball is better with great young players in the game, not rehabbing.
Ryan Braun is likely to retire after this season and his legacy is a question. He’s not likely to be thought of in the same way as a Robin Yount or even a Ben Sheets. He’s a borderline Hall of Famer, very equivalent to players like Matt Holliday and Lance Berman. He’s got his MVP, but none of the round numbers that pushes a case over the top. Braun’s 2020 has been beset by the kind of lingering issues, like his current oblique injury, that serve to tell a player that it’s time to move on. His season is over and maybe his career.
Devin Williams is an interesting story. He was 24 when the Brewers gave up on him as a starter, shifted him to the pen, and almost immediately saw a different pitcher. He shot through the minors and came to the majors, instantly establishing himself as one of the most dominant relievers in the game. The downside is that at the end of the season, his shoulder started barking enough that he had to be shut down and there are reports he had a cortisone injection at the end of the season. It wasn’t enough to get him ready for the first series and the 2-0 loss to the Dodgers puts Williams on a rehab path this offseason. Dominant relievers seldom have long careers, but as with the White Sox, the Brewers are set up for success with this kind of pitcher given their medical staff.
Byron Buxton had a relapse of symptoms after playing on Wednesday. This is not uncommon. This is not some coverup or a push to make Buxton get back on the field. With the concussion protocol, players often have a period of time where they exhibit no symptoms. Yes, some players hide it, but ATs and doctors are very good at noticing these and have ways of inducing them if they suspect a player. Buxton made it through every step, then had enough confidence and trust to report the symptoms. The Twins didn’t say “concussion symptoms recurred” so there’s a grey area in the protocol, but it’s moot after the Twins lost. Buxton should be fine in days, let alone by next season.
Roberto Perez got hit on the wrist and early reports have it listed as a bruise. Since every field has an X-ray machine available, I’ll assume that x-rays were quickly taken and fracture ruled out. As a catcher, Perez knows how to deal with these kinds of issues and given the playoffs, he’s likely to have tried to play through it if the Indians had advanced. I’ll continue to ask why players refuse to wear hand and wrist protection, and why MLB hasn’t pushed to have better protection all over. I think this is much the same situation as head protection for pitchers. It took years and far too many pitchers getting hit in scary fashion before it was accepted, which led to some innovation. MLB should have some sort of innovation fund for this, or maybe one of the team-associated VCs could add this to the portfolio.
Tommy Pham could be seen flexing his hand. He’s not that far out from having his hamate bone removed and word from the Padres is that he still “feels it” occasionally, but that it’s tolerable and doesn’t affect function. This is common and we normally see effects last six to eight weeks after the surgery. Pham can and will play through it as long as the Pads stay in the playoffs. No word on whether he can bat flip, however.
Sandy Alomar Jr. has all but taken over the Cleveland Indians, with Terry Francona sidelined and serving more as a mentor than the actual manager. The Indians face a decision this off-season, with Alomar likely to be a candidate for the open managerial jobs in a couple spots. There’s been no indication that Francona will step down and he’s certainly earned the right to make his own decision, but it’s a tough spot for Chris Antonetti, but familiar. When Mark Shapiro got bumped upstairs to make Antonetti the GM, or when Antonetti was bumped to open up for Mike Chernoff, it was similar and I expect the same thing will happen here. Francona will be given some kind of title and a role in baseball operations, while Alomar becomes the full-time manager.
Expect word to “leak” during the playoffs that MLB is setting up an owners committee to explore adding two teams, taking each league to 16 and re-configuring the divisions. There may not be an American and National League, but if we’re honest, those have just been titles for decades now, with the universal DH as the final nail. Add in that two playoff teams - Oakland and Tampa - are at least suggesting that relocation may be necessary if their area’s can’t build a new stadium and this process could get egged along with the possibility of a consolation prize for a city or two. The Commissioner’s Office will take bids from all over, but expect Nashville, Montreal, and Las Vegas to be the strongest early contenders.