UTK 9/18/20

Free Friday: deGrom, Paxton, Realmuto, Manfred's impending exit, and more

Baseball should be getting ready for the playoffs. The “bubbles” will be a talking point, but after the NBA and NHL, they’ll seem almost normal. My guess is that Globe Life Park will get more attention, and that if MLB and the state of Texas allow fans in, seeing that will be weirder than empty seats and cardboard cutouts. Instead, behind the scenes, we’re seeing two intersecting trends, along with the continued moves to replace Rob Manfred, perhaps as soon as November.

The first issue is that the sale of teams, most notably the Mets, is ongoing. At least two teams have sold minority shares in recent days and it appears this could be wider as owners attempt to raise cash that was lost this season. It’s not going to the bottom line, but to their pockets, with the sales allowing them to take returns out of the partnerships that control almost all teams. I won’t bore you with tax rules, but it’s mostly based on that. While teams say they lose money, part of that “loss” is often large salaries to owners, their families, and others that come out first as part of operations.

The second issue is that the teams aren’t going to be as kind to their employees. Several teams are getting ready to make wholesale layoffs to long time staffers, including scouts, coaches, and administrative employees. Stadium operations, groundskeeping, and the like have already been gutted, but now the baseball part of the operations is about to get hit by the same kind of cuts. Baseball has always had a seasonality to it, but there’s always something going on. With no standard Winter Meetings - most of the work will shift to the GM Meetings, which could be virtual - we’re going to see an offseason that might appear quiet, but behind the scenes is reshaping the sport.

How much? That remains to be seen, but we could see new ownership, changes to the on-field product - both an extension of the changes we’ve seen this year and new ones - plus a new attempt to control costs on committed salary. All this sets up for the right person to be pushed forward as the face of the game, a savior like the one MLB needed a hundred years ago to right the public-facing ship. There’s one in mind and he’s actively campaigning for the job, but I don’t think we’ll see this come public early on. The CBA comes first and aside from COVID uncertainty, that one seems closer than many thought coming into the season.

There’s been plenty of injuries this week, but we’ll start with a couple new ones:

Jacob deGrom SP NYM (strained hamstring)

There was a moment of meltdown for Mets fans - who are admittedly never far from meltdown it seems, at least on the apps - when Jacob deGrom left his last start after just a couple innings.

In a twist, it was relatively good news. deGrom’s arm was fine, but his butt? That was an issue for him. The situation was called a hamstring cramp, but if you pointed to the area, most people would say butt or some rough equivalent. It was very high up the hamstring and while transient, deGrom and the Mets medical staff had no desire to push things. Remember, deGrom had some back issues earlier in the season and this could be related. He came out, got treatment, and is expected to be back for his next start. The Mets may push him back a day by juggling the rotation, but it doesn’t seem too concerning on any level.

Of course, the big Mets news was the sale of the franchise. Steve Cohen might have a lot of money - more than any other owner in baseball, to be sure - but he can’t fix the Mets pitching issues overnight. I’ll be curious to see if Cohen’s eye for investing, especially his known style and method, translates at all to baseball, or whether he’ll hand that off to experts in the field.

Cohen comes into a good market for it. As I said above, there’s going to be a lot of good baseball people on the market and the Mets could hire a lot of them, if they choose. The easy thing to see will be whether Cohen keeps the front office intact, at least for an observational year, but I’ll be watching to see if he keeps any of the systems in place or changes out the Mets’ strength and conditioning setup.

James Paxton SP NYY (strained forearm)

The Yankees expected to go into the playoffs with a loaded power lineup and a loaded power rotation. With Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton back, the lineup’s power has been showing over the last week but Luis Severino and James Paxton won’t be behind Gerritt Cole and Masa Tanaka come playoff time. Paxton had a setback with his forearm strain and is now done for the season.

These forearm strains have been all across baseball and there’s no known explanation for them. Is it related to the drop in Tommy John? Some new offseason technique? No one knows or even has a good theory at this stage, but the problem is not slowing. Most of these recurrences, including Paxton’s, aren’t of the reinjury type we normally think of. They’re more that they become problematic again when the pitching goes from moderate to heavy, or what one pitching coach calls a “100 percent problem.”

The downside here is not only that Paxton is lost for 2020, but there’s no clarity on next year. He should have a good support system to have an offseason where he focuses on health and arm care, but there isn’t a defined outcome here as there is with something like Tommy John surgery, with a known rehab time and a very positive normal outcome. That’s not to say Paxton can’t come back; we just don’t know or know what it looks like, or how likely it is.

And you know how risk averse baseball is.

Dustin May SP LAD (bruised foot)

Dustin May didn’t exactly do the “kick save, beauty” routine when he took a comebacker off his foot, nor did he dance to get out of the way. It happened too quickly, as you can see in the video here. There’s no fracture, which is mostly a function of where the ball hit him - on the inside of his lead leg, towards the heel. There’s some muscle there, which served as a cushion. Doesn’t make it hurt any less, as you can see in the video.

Had it hit him on the outside of the foot, there’s nothing there and that fifth metatarsal is already structurally weak. It’s designed to take lateral stress, not trauma. Because of the location, May is likely just waiting out a bruise. Once he’s able to walk and land normally, the Dodgers will let him back on the mound, but not before. The medical and coaching staff should be on the same page here, because the only risk at this stage is letting the pain alter his mechanics, which are already high force.

While the Dodgers are currently saying he’s ready for his normal Wednesday start, I’m watching to see if they back off a day or even skip him. I doubt it’s a significant risk if he does go, as there would have to be a high degree of confidence to allow him to go normally.

UPDATE: May pitched on Wednesday and it went well, with May showing great stuff and no issues with the foot. He did come in after Brusdar Graterol opened things up, as an opener with Adam Kolarek finishing the second inning (and getting the win!) so that May would start at the top of an inning. Smart move by the Dodgers. I’m curious to see if they try this in the playoffs as well.

Matt Chapman 3B OAK (hip impingement)

I said last week that Matt Chapman’s injury, listed as hip tendonitis, matches the symptoms but usually wasn’t as severe. It turns out, the tendonitis was likely secondary to hip impingement, a condition where both the ball and socket of the joint are altered to cause some significant issues inside.

That isn’t to say that Chapman’s injury was misdiagnosed. This is simply that the symptomology kept progressing and at some point, the root cause - an impingement damaging both the hip labrum and the movement of the joint, which likely caused the tendinitis - was identified. This is exactly how things are supposed to work.

As for the surgery, when it was announced that Chapman was going to Marc Phillipon, that was no surprise. Phillipon pioneered this kind of repair and has done it on hundreds of athletes, including baseball players like Chase Utley, Alex Rodriguez, and Greg Holland. It’s seen more in ice hockey and cross country skiing, because of the position of the legs and the movement. (You can try this at home.)

For Chapman, his season is done, but the return rate on this is extremely high with little or no short or medium term consequences. He should be back for next season with no issues and get right back to where he was, which is a pretty high level.

UPDATE: Chapman underwent the surgery in Vail and while it was widely reported as “repair the labrum,” the surgery was more extensive. The “ball” at the head of the femur was smoothed and the rest of the hip socket was cleaned up as well. This is as planned and expected, I’m told, and puts Chapman on par with most other athletes that have had this type of surgery.

Justin Verlander SP HOU (strained forearm)

It’s been a while since there was any real news on Justin Verlander, but suddenly he emerges from the void and is throwing a four inning sim game at Minute Maid, rather than an alt site outing. He’ll face teammates for this, but it shows just how close Verlander might be to a return. They’re clearly not only gauging his fitness, but his stuff.

A four inning sim is pretty aggressive sounding for a first outing, but it’s likely not his first. Verlander’s rehab may have been quiet, but I doubt that the Astros are really doing much different in terms of a rehab progression. This isn’t a dumb team. I expect that Verlander is pushing things a bit in terms of a normal step, cutting things out like a deeper bullpen session as a concession to the calendar. Clearly, the team wants him on a mound against opposition ahead of the playoffs, which does show a bit of uncertainty.

Assuming Verlander makes it through this, he could jump right back into the rotation. That could get him a couple starts ahead of the playoffs without taxing him or the pen too much. My expectation is that he’d be limited to five, maybe six really efficient innings, with less of a leash in the playoffs. We have seen a lot of recurrence risk with these forearm strains, so the Astros will likely shadow him in the first couple starts.

JT Realmuto C PHI (hip soreness)

Skip back a bit to all the things about hip impingement above and double check. All that is the concern for JT Realmuto as the Phillies await an MRI on their slugging catcher. (The MRI did not show any structural issues, per the Phillies.) Realmuto has been out all weekend, but sources tell me that he’s been dealing with ongoing stiffness in the hip for a while and that it affects him more at the plate than at catcher.

Again, the motion of both is key to understanding why one over the other. The quick rotational force of a swing requires the hips to fire quickly, which would cause a sharp pinching for someone with a hip issue. Squatting? Imagine someone with a back problem - they can get in and out of a chair, but it’s slow and painful at times. Once there, they’re ok until they have to move again. There’s not as much moving for a catcher as you’d think and even though it’s an awkward position for most, catchers live there and don’t have much issue with it.

A serious hip issue would depress Realmuto’s value a bit as he heads into free agency as one of few impact bats. I’m not sure that Yasmani Grandal is a great comparison, but he had some issues finding a longer term deal until locking in with the White Sox this past offseason. As I said, the Phillies have experience with hip impingement, so I doubt it would hold them back much if this is the case.

UPDATE: Realmuto remains out and there’s no expected return date for the Phillies catcher. While there is the option to do a retro IL move, the Phillies seem ok playing a man down and continue to think that Realmuto is close to a return. There’s still no clarity as to what exactly is causing this pain, but the fact that it’s lingering definitely has to be worrisome to some teams who have been watching Realmuto very closely ahead of free agency.

Quick (New) Cuts:

Dallas Keuchel’s first start off the IL wasn’t Thursday, but was pushed back to Saturday. It wasn’t a setback though. The Sox just wanted to start lining things up for the playoffs … Gleyber Torres will miss at least a few more games with his quad strain, but it looks like he’ll avoid the IL, which is small comfort to a team that continues to deal with a lot of muscle strains this year … Jake Arrieta’s regular season is done due to a hamstring strain. Oddly, the 24-25 team is in line for a playoff spot and Arrieta could return. The team has an option on his ‘21, but he could have already made his last Phillies start … X-rays might be clear on Dakota Hudson, but remember that X-rays don’t see ligaments. Hudson will be re-checked over the next few days and he could be shut down, though the Cardinals need any pitching they can find over the next couple weeks … Mitch Garver got hit by a pitch on his hip at the al site and that’s held back his rehab from his intracostal strain. It’s not really a setback as an adjacent problem. The Twins have done fine in his absence, so Garver may come back in a limited role once his bat is available … Adam Eaton heads to the IL after breaking his finger on a bunt attempt. His season is over. Never bunt … The Jays like what they’re seeing from both Nate Pearson and Matt Shoemaker at their alt site, but there’s no return date for either despite the Jays needs. They’ll continue to work towards some kind of return. I’m expecting more clarity on this early next week … The news isn’t as good for Ken Giles. He lasted two outings before heading back to the IL and the Jays are acknowledging that his season is done … Chris Devenski had elbow surgery this week. Bone spurs were removed, the elbow was cleaned up, but structurally, there were no major issues. He should be ready for the start of next season.

Errata: in yesterday’s Black & Blue Report, I accidentally published with an incorrect tag. I had Michael Thomas listed as "concussion”. It was a simple error as I changed the order, putting Thomas above Chris Godwin, who did have a concussion. I have changed this on the website, but emails are like print. Once I screw something up there, it stays screwed up. My apologies, though I doubt any of you were confused.