UTK 8/3/20

Enter August, Seager, closers, and returning aces

While the focus on baseball has understandably been a second COVID outbreak, there’s another “epidemic” of arm injuries happening that has gone slightly under the radar. Instead of Tommy John surgeries, we’re seeing a major increase in flexor strains, shoulder strains - specifically in the back of the shoulder, and other muscle injuries. The key here is that we’re seeing muscle injuries, not tendon or ligaments. I have to call these overstress injuries rather than overuse, since they all appear to be more focused on a traumatic injury than a wear down or even a poorly constructed ramp up.

There’s a lot we don’t know about these, even amongst the team dealing with them. The Rangers have not one but two teres major strains, which is an injury I don’t think they’ve dealt with in the last three years. Most teams haven’t. We’ve seen a bunch of flexor strains, even a cluster with the Astros, but only one - maybe two - Tommy Johns so far, which is below the predicted normal level. This is obviously not normal, so I don’t think we can say this is a sustainable level of expectation.

The question becomes how do you deal with a non-standard and unexpected pattern. At this stage of the season, medical staffs around the league are largely reactionary to it, but the best teams will stick to plan. What’s working for the majority of players will continue to work, while adjustments to the others will have to be made. Without some idea of what structural change to throwing is at the root cause, it’s better to control the variables. The change is more likely to be in the crazy season than a well thought out pitching program.

Until we figure that out, it’s on to the injuries:

Corey Seager SS LAD (strained quad)

Corey Seager has started out 2020 about as hot as anyone. His swing and his movements in the field look like he’s back to his old self, which is “perennial All Star” who is still ahead of a normal peak. (He’s 26.) The Dodgers are being cautious with what I’m told is a “relatively minor” quad strain. They think this is a matter of days and one of the proverbial “if this was the playoffs” kind of injuries. All that said, between this strain and taking a nasty foul off his calf, Seager could do with a bit of rest.

Legs are an interesting topic when it comes to hitting. I’ve been following hitting as it pertains to coaching techniques and theories more over the past year and there’s no agreement there on almost anything. However, having a strong and stable base is one of the few things most agree on. Giving Seager some time to recover shouldn’t be a bad thing at all, given the options the Dodgers have. It’s a flexible roster, mostly due to Kikè Hernandez, with Chris Taylor taking the start at short today. It’s pretty amazing that the Dodgers have done this without most of their regular lineup, save Mookie Betts, hitting as expected, and with Clayton Kershaw on the shelf.

Shohei Ohtani DH LAA (post-Tommy John surgery)

I’ll note that I styled Shohei Ohtani as a DH above, not a SP. That’s on purpose, because Ohtani once again looked awful, lasting only into the second and showing nothing resembling command or control of his pitches. He’s headed for an MRI on Monday, per reports after the game. That’s not unheard of post-Tommy John, but while I’m a fan of the way the Angels are handling and developing pitchers in general, Ohtani seems like the latest failure of American teams handling Japanese pitchers.

The Angels put Ohtani on a long rehab for his Tommy John, but there doesn’t seem to be any real value there. They put him on a once-a-week schedule, in hopes of replicating his Japanese schedule, but that’s not how he really worked there. As we’ve seen with Yu Darvish, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and seemingly every pitcher back to Hideo Nomo, there’s a “we love you, now change” pattern to all this. Darvish had pitches taken away. Mastuzaka had his workload changed rapidly, plus pitches taken away. We see this same pattern with some draftees, but Japanese pitchers have been doing things their way for longer.

It’s early, yes, but I’m with Ryan Spader at this point of this weird season - it might be time to take Ohtani out of the rotation and make him the full time DH. Go back to work on the pitching side this offseason, when things - we hope - will be more normal and lead up to - we hope - a more normal 2021.

Want to get a bit weird for a minute? I asked an AL exec who was very high on Ohtani when posted about what he saw recently. He didn’t see anything I hadn’t, but came back with an interesting question: “Could the Angels trade him back to Japan?” (The answer is no.) I think the Angels will need to be creative with Ohtani in the future, but right now, they need to think about dropping Ohtani, especially if they get Julio Teheran back from COVID this week.

Wade Davis RP COL (strained shoulder)

People around baseball are watching to see what’s up with Wade Davis. He heads to the IL with a shoulder strain, but there’s rumors that it’s in the back of his shoulder and one source told me the team has yet to rule out a teres major strain. Davis’ numbers haven’t looked right and one longtime scout texted me as he was watching him on TV - “arm’s late, slow, and dropped.” The Rockies closer is out, but there’s no clear timeline for his return yet.

Daniel Bard may get all the attention for his return, but that’s true for Jairo Diaz as well. Diaz will take over the closer role after basically missing three full seasons. He came back in 2019 throwing over 95, which plays.

On the other hand, these back of shoulder strains are very worrisome. They’re not rare, but certainly not in these numbers or at this point of a normal season. If we look only at things like appearances and pitch count, ignoring things like pandemics and pauses we’re seeing a whole new pattern of injuries that isn’t easily explained. In fact, they might be completely unconnected, as one MLB doctor suggested to me. I don’t think they can be just ignored and that “fluke” should always be the last diagnosis.

Roberto Osuna RP HOU (unknown, shoulder)

“Another one?” was the text. No, DJ Khaled isn’t hitting me up with motivational tips.

Instead, an NL AT was wondering if the Astros had yet another forearm injury, this time to closer Roberto Osuna. The answer looks like yes, though the Astros are yet to offer details on exactly what part of his arm is sore. “Arm soreness” is a bit broad, but I think it’s less about smokescreens and more that they are sending him for an MRI, but not waiting to put him on the IL.

Osuna’s replaceable, likely with Ryan Pressly, coming back from a sore forearm of his own and pitching well in Sunday’s game. The question for Osuna is where is the problem specifically. We should know that in the next couple of days, which could determine whether the Astros really try to ride with this young and unknown pitching staff in a year they thought was well within the window Bobby Heck opened for them.

Stephen Strasburg SP WAS (wrist inflammation)

Stephen Strasburg got back on a mound, tossing a 31-pitch session and came off with the quote that he felt “really good.” Given the numbness and grip issues he had ahead of Opening Day, this is a really good sign indeed. While this doesn’t guarantee anything, he was able to get through the session without issue and execute all his pitches. Sure, it’s not Rapsodo data that would tell us that he’s able to get the pitches to do what he wants and needs, but it’s good.

This doesn’t mean Strasburg heads right back into the rotation however. My guess is that he’ll need at least one more session in a couple days. The length of that one will be key - look for him to go 45 or 50 pitches, if they’re guessing and stair-stepping him up. If he gets closer to 60, that’s an even better sign that everything is going well. The downside would be if he has inflammation after throwing and gets some symptoms back, delaying this next session, so keep an eye out.

Homer Bailey SP MIN (biceps tendonitis)

Homer Bailey has always been a bit different. While everyone else is having pure muscular injuries, he’s having tendonitis. Biceps tendonitis is always a tough one, since the biceps attaches at both ends of the arm — at the elbow and at the shoulder. At the shoulder is a much tougher diagnosis since the biceps and the labrum are so closely related, some doctors argue they’re the same structure (the biceps-labrum complex.)

Whichever it is has pushed Bailey to the IL and out of the rotation. Randy Dobnak will take the slot until Jake Odorizzi comes off the IL later this week. There’s no indication yet that Bailey’s is thought to be a long term issue, but the Twins have their rotation set up this way for a reason. They have enough depth to overcome an injury to someone they’re counting on, like Odorizzi, and they properly value something of a reclamation project in Bailey correctly. At 34, Bailey can still be useful, but he’s clearly a guy who’s a part of a 4-into-3 strategy, hoping they get the innings of three starters out of four (Bailey, Rich Hill, Dobnak, and Maeda.)

That depth isn’t infinite though and the Twins don’t have much beyond Bailey and Dobnak as a starter. If Bailey is a long term absence, the team will have an interesting decision. Do they go out and try to find another starter, especially a top end one that could help in the playoffs with short series, but more of them, or do they hope that Rich Hill holds together as well? My guess is that the Twins will be aggressive and could be in the market for someone like a Johnny Cueto or Mike Minor.

Quick Cuts:

Mike Trout is now a father. Assuming he passes his COVID tests, he’ll be back on Tuesday … Clayton Kershaw is back from his, umm, back issue. He looked like Clayton Kershaw, going 81 pitches after I was told his pitch “goal not limit” was 80 … Joey Votto self-reported symptoms and is isolated while he recovers. There’s no positive test but for this to work, players are going to have to do this, which means teams will have to be flexible. There’s no way to replace Votto, but it’s better than trying to replace a team like the Marlins are … Kris Bryant remains out with “illness not COVID”, which in past years would have been the much simpler “flu like symptoms”. As noted, Bryant has not had a positive COVID test … Ozzie Albies is battling a wrist issue and while the Braves are being very non-specific, it sounds like this is chronic and perhaps being managed with a series of injections … Josh Donaldson missed the weekend while his calf was tight. Marwin Gonzalez takes third while Donaldson is out, a perfect note on how injuries and roster flexibility work together … At 37, a stiff back every now and again is par for the course. Howie Kendrick shouldn’t be out long … The Rangers don’t think Rougned Odor will need to IL to heal up his mild oblique strain, but they’re not entirely ruling it out just yet. The Rangers have a flexible roster, so they can give him a couple days … Chris Devenski hits the IL. He’s only pitched twice this year and while the Astros are non-specific about the issue, word is that it’s a flexor strain … Ryan Braun heads to the IL with an infected finger. He can’t grab the bat normally, but it should be a minimum stint. He should wash his hands more … 64 pitches sounds like a limit, but Anthony DeSclafani was simply efficient. He showed no issues coming back from his teres major strain and now we see how he recovers ahead of his next scheduled start … For those asking, I do not have an editor for this. Any errors, typos, or even the occasional factual error is my fault. I hope to one day have an editor here, but that’s well down the road. If you knew how many times I type “DL” instead of “IL”, it probably wouldn’t surprise you much.

You should be seeing the ability to subscribe to Under The Knife today. I will keep this and tomorrow’s newsletter’s free to give everyone the opportunity to see and subscribe. Please let me know (theinjuryexpert@gmail.com) if you have any issues. I am currently keeping this month to month because, well 2020. I don’t want to charge you for a year and have baseball shut down or something to change outside our control. That’s why no yearly discount. I’ll revisit that next spring. There are already a handful of subscribers and I want to thank each and every one of you.

Some have asked why I am referring to the pandemic’s illness as “COVID.” For me, it’s a stylistic choice to take the simplest, most understandable option. COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 may be more accurate in some areas, but I think whether I’m referring to the COVID crisis, the COVID virus, or COVID symptoms, it’s still clear enough for most people if I simply stick with the simple variant.

I’m on record as saying a travel ban is the only thing that will stop the MLB season. Reader Alex C had a question that made me pause. “What if a team like the Marlins or Cards just quit en masse?” I don’t know the answer, but I don’t think it would be easy to just shuffle aside a team the way that Dallas and Nashville were shunted out of the MLS tourney in Orlando. The way that MLB has paused around teams tells me they could, but the whole “integrity of the season” thing would look a little odd.