UTK 7/8/20
Testing trouble, Tanaka, Rizzo, Glasnow, and more
The utter ridiculousness of how MLB is dealing with COVID has been on full display over the last few days. Whether it’s getting holiday logistics wrong, or not having rapid on-site tests available to augment the saliva testing that has to be shipped to Utah, to using testers in a non-drug test situation, there’s just a lot that could and has gone wrong. Add to that the way that MLB has elected to deal with announcing positive tests - it’s left to the player, but teams are regularly making the announcement anyway, which we assume has been signed off on in some way by the player.
Now we have a new problem to contend with. MLB is using two different kinds of testing - saliva and the nasal swab which is much more uncomfortable, but potentially more accurate. These are very simply two different tests and while people I have spoken to, including public health expert Zach Binney - who’s a must follow on all this - think the tests are accurate and valid, they’re also two different things. We’re not comparing apples and apples.
The case of Joey Gallo is our first example. He tested negative at a private lab in Dallas on Tuesday after testing positive via saliva test last week. He also apparently had a negative nasal swab previously. He’ll need another negative test before he’s allowed to rejoin the team, but you’ll note, he’s been at camp before the positive test. Confused yet? So’s everyone
Again, this is less about the testing and more about how it looks. If Gallo had a false positive, well, so be it and he can quickly get back with a couple brain-tickling tests. If a player has a false negative, that’s another story, but with multiple tests, different sites, and a protocol that no one seems to fully understand, MLB risks losing the PR war yet again. This is where a credible Commissioner would come in handy.
For now, there’s injuries we do understand, so let’s get to it:
Masahiro Tanaka SP NYY (post-concussion)
Remember the Concussion Protocol? That’s something we all get by now. Masahiro Tanaka is obviously post-concussion after his scary encounter with Giancarlo Stanton’s work product, but seeing him on a stationary bike at practice is a good sign. It means he’s in at least stage three of the protocol, where the players deals with non-baseball exercise without causing symptoms. Assuming he gets past that, we could see him back on the field pretty quickly. “Clearing” the protocol at this stage is a formality. He can do pretty much anything he needs to do, save intrasquad or live pitching, before doing so, so there’s no rush at all.
The Yankees seem to have a solid handle on where they have their pitching staff, plus they have the depth to lose one of their starters without getting too exposed. They’re already down Luis Severino for the season, but they can go a legit seven deep once Tanaka is back and active. Add a deep pen to that and you have a good setup for this shortened season.
If you want the baseball lesson, here’s the way I’d set up a team like the Yankees - I would set a four man rotation and keep two “ready to go” as long men. The top two - Cole and Tanaka by my reckoning - would ramp up to six or seven, making them “normal” starters and essentially acting as rest days for the pen. With the other two - Paxton and Happ - I’d go a little lighter, keeping them a step down in innings to allow the pen the work it will need, plus work for the long men.
If you want the fantasy lesson, there’s going to be value in long men this year. Swingmen that come in the fifth and sixth innings, but carry a chance at starting, are going to see win opportunities this season. Few pitchers are going to go deep this year, so a four inning outing puts a win out there for the vultures. If you can pick right - and I’d look to the last man out of the rotation in organizations that understand ramps - there’s serious value.
Tyler Glasnow SP TBR (unknown)
Tyler Glasnow was supposed to be one of the players to watch early. He had detailed the work he was able to do in Arizona during the pause and had declared he’d be ready to go six innings on day one. Given his estimated workload, he didn’t seem far off, which made me wonder if the Rays had figured something out and if this was Glasnow alone. Unfortunately, we haven’t been able to find out since Glasnow isn’t in camp. There’s been no explanation, leading almost everyone to assume that it’s COVID related. Given Glasnow’s durability issues, we have to hope that it’s something simple (and that he has an asymptomatic case.) The Rays pitching staff might not hinge on Glasnow, but he certainly makes their staff better if he’s available.
Jimmy Nelson P LAD (back surgery)
Scratch Jimmy Nelson from the Dodgers’ plans for 2020. The hope had been that he could be a multi-inning reliever for the Dodgers, but this back surgery - a lumbar microdiscectomy - will shut down his entire season, shortened as it is. Nelson has been dealing with this for a while. The “lower body soreness” he was feeling back in the spring was, I’m told, shooting pain and weakness in his leg from the entrapped nerve.
This means that Nelson’s barely thrown since his breakout 2017. He’s made it back from a massive shoulder injury and some setbacks, but there’s little to show that he has any durability. He’s still shown enough stuff that he will get picked up somewhere, perhaps even back with the Dodgers on their ‘21 option. More likely, he’ll have to find a spot for a “prove it” deal and his agent should take a hard look at making sure it’s one of the places that brings pitchers back well.
Anthony Rizzo 1B CHC (lower back pain)
It seems like just yesterday that Anthony Rizzo was a young, fresh-faced rookie. Now he’s a thirty-year-old veteran who’s dealing with back issues. It’s fair to call Rizzo a slugger and with his long, hard swing, back issues are the worst possible thing for this kind of player. Rizzo’s had intermittent, minor back issues for a few years and given the pause, we shouldn’t read too much into it just yet.
Then again, his home runs and exit velocity were down noticeably last season. If the back issues (or core strength) is a factor here, this kind of early camp problem could be foreshadowing. With the data we have available, I’m closely watching his exit velocity. It’s hard to go back and compare this to something like Don Mattingly or Vladimir Guerrero - man, imagine that FlightScope on that guy - but those are the comps that come to mind. They showed physical change and you’d have to imagine data changes, if such things could have been measured then.
Freddie Freeman 1B ATL (COVID-19 infection)
Young, healthy athletes aren’t supposed to struggle with COVID-19. Tell that to Freddie Freeman, who has one of the more severe cases we’ve seen in any athlete. There’s no reason to think that Freeman has any of the co-morbidities we’ve been told exacerbate the virus’ course, nor is there any evidence he was out of shape. Quite the opposite, since he regularly posted videos of himself and his family during quarantine.
Instead, Freeman is a reminder that while many are asymptomatic or have mild cases, not all do. We have no idea why Freeman has a severe case, how or when he’ll recover, or what any long term issues might be. Looking back, the “Spanish flu” pandemic didn’t spare baseball, though it didn’t kill any active players either. We’ll have to hope the same is true here and that Freeman recovers fully. There’s absolutely no timetable for his return, though it could be relatively quick.
Carlos Rodon P CWS (Tommy John rehab)
Carlos Rodon was someone I scouted back ahead of his high draft. He was great in college, but had a lot of red flags, which made his pick by the White Sox one where I went “yeah, that might work”, along the lines of what they did with Chris Sale. The pick hasn’t had the payoff yet, but Rodon’s 15 months post-Tommy John and is throwing well. His first summer session was “electric” in his assessment and he seemed very pleased with how he threw. The key now will be recovery, but again, this is something the White Sox do very well.
There’s some idea that Rodon is sixth on the starter depth chart. That’s not going to be much of a hindrance to him. Most teams are going to need it and I think his stuff will push him ahead of some others. He could be used as a reliever or tandem to start the season, but the value might be depressed by the worry about innings. As I said above, that kind of pitcher is going to have more value this season than most with short outings and vulture wins. I really like “Hard Carl” for fantasy leagues right now and think he’ll stay healthy in a short season. Longer term? We’ll see.