UTK 7/6/2020

Camp Corona, Tanaka, Quintana, and more

Summer Camp has started and how the intake testing went is a matter of perspective. The positives were under two percent of the total, which is below what was expected, but let’s think what this means. Despite knowing that Camp was coming and with what we assume are reasonable precautions, almost two percent of players still have active infections. This isn’t “he had it now he’s recovered” - those are a different pool. This is active, infectious cases and even among a young, healthy population, that’s a concerning level.

I won’t run through all the names here, but the interesting part comes next. During the continued testing, teams will need to not only see the positive tests stay under that level, but due to increased contact between players, we’re going to have to see if teams can reasonably keep outbreaks from spreading quickly in a team. Delays in results are already showing to be a real issue, but MLB knew they would have to make adjustments to all the procedures as they got going. The real problem will be if they can’t address this kind of gap, making an asymptomatic spread a near certainty.

Forget “Summer Camp, Presented by Camping World.” It should be “Camp Corona.” This is going to be a major issue as teams continue to ramp up with throwing programs, intrasquad games, and trying to make sure they’re where they need to be just weeks from now. There’s going to be plenty to fill out this column it appears, so let’s get to it:

Masahiro Tanaka SP NYY (concussion)

There is no worse place to be for a pitcher than 52 feet from Giancarlo Stanton’s bat. Masahiro Tanaka found this out when live batting practice put him in that position. Tanaka was not wearing any of the available head protectors, allowing the ball to hit him just above the temple without any mitigation. The ball came so fast, Tanaka could barely turn or move his glove, let alone stop it.

But Tanaka and the Yankees were lucky. After multiple CT scans, Tanaka has nothing more than a concussion, with no fractures or severe cuts. He did have a small cut and a large bruise, but aside from the vagaries of concussion, Tanaka should have no issues coming back. He’ll be off until he passes the concussion protocol, which could slightly setback his ramp up to the season, but this could have been significantly worse.

Most pitchers in MLB do not wear any head protection, though it has gotten smaller and better in the last few seasons. While I still believe it should be pushed for the trickledown effect on youth baseball, I no longer believe MLB pitchers will ever wear any protection, unless it is built into a standard issue hat. Even if it had gone much worse for Tanaka, pitchers still think it won’t happen to them or that they’ll be just as lucky.

David Price SP LAD (sprained elbow)

David Price has the right to opt-out of his season and I have no issue with him doing so, nor with anyone who chooses the same. My question is that if we’re doing a major experiment in terms of workload, rest, and pitching, then David Price is an interesting piece of data that now vanishes a bit from sight. What we can’t lose is that, assuming he’s back next year, what he does now will make how he comes back very intriguing.

Remember that Price has been dealing with a damaged elbow (and possibly related wrist issue that required surgery) for the better part of four years. Given some mechanical changes he made this season and good spring starts - an admittedly small sample - Price looked to be relatively healthy and had passed every physical during the trade process, but with seven months, Price could essentially do a full Tommy John rehab without the Tommy John.

Even if he does “nothing”, Price will be an interesting case to see if time off helps or hurts a pitcher. I worry a bit about how he’ll ramp up after so much time off, but that depends on what he does and how the Dodgers manage his workload, especially in the ‘normal’ offseason. In a season where almost everything is an experiment, David Price might be the clearest example of how this could all work for the better.

Jose Quintana SP CHC (lacerated thumb)

It’s not just the mound where pitchers can hurt themselves. Jose Quintana sliced himself on the pitching hand with a knife while doing simple vegetable prep, but this wasn’t a knick. Quintana went deep, necessitating surgery to repair some nerve damage. There’s no word on just what was done, so we don’t have a recovery time yet, but if he loses any grip strength or fine control with his thumb, it’s obvious that would be more than minor.

While Quintana will be behind on his ramp up to the season, we should see relatively quickly whether he will be back to normal. Once the cut heals up to allow him to throw, he should be able to get back out and do the things he would normally do. Even a light ‘touch and feel’ bullpen or session of good long toss would show that he’s able to do what he needs to do with his hand. Until we get that positive sign, we have to consider the possibility that this could not only be long term, but permanent. All indications are that isn’t going to be the course of this, but managing risk is the key to success.

Cory Knebel RP MIL (Tommy John rehab)

Are they all Tommy John rehabs or accidents at this stage? No, it just seems like it. Cory Knebel is 15 months post, but the Brewers - one of the best medical teams around - are still being cautious with him. Knebel’s likely to go into a late relief role, perhaps even the ninth inning/ “closer” role that would free up Josh Hader to go back to a multi-inning or high-leverage role.

Knebel is throwing 15-pitch pens, so workload is very relative here. I think what we’re seeing, though I couldn’t get confirmation, is that they’re worried about his response to work. Is he sore or swollen the day after, meaning he couldn’t pitch on back to back days? Is he seeing a velocity drop or some negative sign with multiple days of throwing? There have been some suggestions that Knebel had a setback over the winter, but with six months of extra time, even that possibility is a stretch.

Throwing just pens at this stage is slightly worrisome, but without indication of what the holdback is, we’re left with only speculation. A healthy Knebel frees up Hader and the rest of the pen in a way that makes the team better, but makes Hader significantly less valuable in fantasy. This is one that bears very close watch if you have any shares of the Brewers pitching staff or hopes that you’ll see the team in the expanded playoffs.

Paul Goldschmidt 1B STL (sprained elbow)

Paul Goldschmidt comes into camp feeling better and that’s not just him saying that his sprained elbow is healed up, he’s proved it. Goldschmidt took part in the “Cressey Games” in Florida during the pause, a speakeasy set of games that were detailed by Britt Ghiroli ($). That’s as good a sign as you can have, in that Goldschmidt was getting at bats against top pitchers and that he had some world-class people helping him with the rehab process.

The Cards keeping Goldschmidt healthy is obviously a key, though this kind of elbow injury doesn’t often have a major effect on hitting. There was some concern that Goldschmidt had something going on that did cause him issues in his swing, such as a bone spur or chip. My guess is that he did not have that; those are issues that could be taken care of by a minor surgery and even with the Coronavirus pause on elective surgeries, he could have had it yesterday and likely be ready for the season.

It bears watching some, but all sources I spoke with indicate that Goldschmidt essentially has no limitations on him at bat. They’re holding him back some on throwing, but that’s hardly a top part of his game or one that’s going to necessitate something like the Albert Pujols adjustments from almost two decades ago.

Michel Fulmer P DET (Tommy John rehab)

Michael Fulmer is back from his Tommy John rehab and took off noticeable weight during quarantine, according to multiple reports. Fulmer didn’t have any of these references during the standard spring training, where we normally see the BSOML call-outs. At better than 15 months post-surgery, Fulmer is well past the medical portion of his rehab and should be more than ready to start back up in July.

How much workload the Tigers are willing to let him take is another story, but there should be some advantage in this season for any of the pitchers coming back from surgery. No one is expecting even healthy pitchers to go deep into games, so spotting in players like Fulmer should be easier to plan for - key there being “should.”

Griffin Canning SP LAA (sprained elbow)

The Angels went with stem cells and PRP rather than surgery in trying to get Griffin Canning ready for the season. Add in a couple months of bonus rest and rehab and Canning’s elbow should be in a position to quickly show us how it’s done.

Pitchers with small UCL sprains have had success, even long term success, with biologic injections versus going immediately to surgery. The best known of these is Masahiro Tanaka, who had about a 12 percent tear in his UCL and has pitched without issue for a couple seasons.

There are several others and some players have had the procedure done without public scrutiny. One case I was made aware of last year is of a Cy Young caliber pitcher who pitched through soreness and had the procedure done in the offseason to assist with healing. While I’m limited by NDA on naming him, I’m definitely watching that one closely.

As for Canning, he’s a key to a very thin Angels rotation. Without him, Felix Pena is forced back into the rotation and the Angels would be about nine down their list for starters, all without a real ace. Even that’s assuming that Shohei Otani will be a standard rotation pitcher, and if there’s ever a season to be non-standard, this is it.

Michael Kopech P CWS (no injury)

Michael Kopech stepped away from the White Sox camp to attend to a “personal matter.” The two-time Tommy John survivor throws really, really hard and most consider him a very risky pitcher. I checked with multiple sources who confirmed to me that the arm is fine and that truly is a non-baseball situation. Kopech has been working to be ready for the season and by all accounts, this won’t change that significantly.

Where Kopech is placed in the pitching staff remains to be seen, but he trained to be ready to be a starter. My guess is that he’ll be something of a short starter, perhaps in a tandem, but that they’ll test him to see if he could be a multi-inning reliever. I don’t think he’s as risky as some, but we know that throwing that hard doesn’t seem to be survivable in the long term. I’ll still take Kopech over the next few years and deal with the next injury if it comes.

Quick Cuts:

Silvino Bracho had a setback with his Tommy John rehab and is done for ‘20. His surgery was in March ‘19, so this is a late setback and must have been significant. Late reports Sunday are that Bracho tested positive for COVID-19, which isn’t good, but it’s also not what was originally said. There’s no details on whether there was actually an arm injury, so we may not have any direction on this until next spring … Yoenis Cespedes saw some action in the outfield on Sunday and was “moving okay” according to a source. As odd as this sounds, he’ll be the Mets’ DH but could play the field if needed, so we’ll likely see him out there during camp … Carlos Rodon told the media he feels “one hundred percent.” He’s 14 months post-Tommy John, so he should … Take a look at that Tanaka key frame and then think about how difficult it’s going to be as an Athletic Trainer this year. Not only will they have to get up close on unmasked players, they’ve almost all been tasked with additional cleaning, being “infection control officers” and more, all while managing a larger roster with less outside help. That’s also going to be a factor in injury cases this season.