UTK 7/30/20

Pitch Counts Up, More Pitchers down, Stroman, Soto, plus more

Max Scherzer went 112 pitches in 7 1/3 inning stint, but didn’t get the win. It’s the pitch count here that’s interesting. It’s not ridiculously high by any standard, but it speaks to where Scherzer is at the same time that pitchers are struggling to get past 80. I don’t know what Scherzer did — not the Nats, but Scherzer, since he’s the only one at these pitch levels — but he certainly appears to have kept his workload at an in-season level during the pause, or that he had great timing for both a ramp down and ramp up.

We’ve seen other teams get some higher pitch counts, which gives us some indication that they know where the pitcher is in terms of workload. Lance Lynn is second to Scherzer in pitches on the season and Madison Bumgarner is top five, but the names behind them aren’t your typical workhorses. MLB.com has a handy list but if you can find any sort of pattern in these top pitch count names, you’re a better person than me. (Yes, all pitchers haven’t made a second start, so there’s a bit of a skew to 1-2 pitchers, but that’s where we’d expect to find them anyway.) There’s also enough of a gap to show that what Scherzer is doing is pretty different than even what Kyle Hendricks has done so far.

We’ll have to see if we see these kind of pitch count/workload outliers over the course of the whole season, but I’m not sure what’s there, beyond the fact that there’s a couple pitchers - and one in particular - that is a real workload throwback. Now, on to the injuries:

Marcus Stroman SP NYM (strained calf)

It’s not that Marcus Stroman can’t throw. It’s that he can’t sprint. With the DH, this wouldn’t be that much of an issue, but the Mets think his defensive deficiency until it heals up would be too much of a disadvantage, so Stroman will stay on the IL even as he throws good pens.

Or at least that’s the public story. Yes, all of the above is true, but there’s one more factor in why the Mets are being so careful with Stroman. The location of the calf strain is very low, near the Achilles tendon and everyone in sports remembers what happened to Kevin Durant last year. The team won’t let Stroman back out there until they see healing enough to be confident he’s not at risk of any sort of setback, let alone the kind of Achilles issue that would cost him into 2021.

Nick Senzel OF CIN/ Mike Moustakas 2B CIN (illness)

Nick Senzel and Mike Moustakas were back in the Reds lineup after appealing that they should not have to supply two negative COVID tests before returning since they never tested positive. The Reds players did have COVID symptoms, which can mimic a common cold or flu, but self-reported and were isolated until symptoms cleared. This is a good outcome I believe, since players should be encouraged to self-report symptoms to keep another Miami-style outbreak from starting even before a testing cycle hits.

Both Senzel and Moustakas had homers in their return, so suffice it to say that they’ve recovered and are feeling pretty good, as are the Reds in getting back a quarter of their lineup in one fell swoop.

Masahiro Tanaka SP NYY (concussion)

As scary as it looked for Masahiro Tanaka, he continues to insist that outside of the immediate effects of getting hit by a rocket off Giancarlo Stanton’s bat, he never had any symptoms. He’s been back throwing since just a few days after and now he’ll rejoin the Yankees rotation on Saturday. Tanaka has had no issues in the pen despite being off throwing for a few days. His workload shouldn’t be too affected by that short gap, though the Yankees appear to be a bit conservative with workloads under their new pitching regime.

There’s no indication of just how far the Yankees are expecting Tanaka to go in his first game back, but he only went 40 pitches in his sim game. It would be hard to see him doubling that in a start, but I don’t have a good handle on this from sources either. On a betting standpoint, I think Tanaka’s outing could be short enough that it could skew some models against the Red Sox, while I’m not sure how him coming off the IL will affect the roster and who will follow him to the mound. That’s too many unknowns for me, despite feeling positive about Tanaka in general.

Jose Leclerc RP TEX (strained shoulder)

The Rangers didn’t go with Jose Leclerc the last couple days as their titular closer deals with a ‘tight shoulder’. The team will do more tests, which I’m told could end up including an MRI, but they are concerned, especially given their bullpen depth.

Leclerc isn’t a very typical closer in that he doesn’t have a huge fastball or some plus pitch. He’s just surprisingly consistent in the role and does enough to hold it when others have not. With Rafael Montero already on the IL, Chris Woodward is going to have to mix and match with save situations, as he did with Nick Goody on Wednesday.

Any extended absence for Leclerc, especially in a shortened season, would be a problem but it’s unlikely the Rangers will do much to fill in that slot. Joely Rodriguez is due back from his strained lat soon, but he’s much more the lefty set-up type, if that exists under the three-batter rule. If the Rangers stay in this, they’ll have to find some bullpen arms somewhere.

Roberto Perez C CLE (strained shoulder)

People don’t think about how often catchers throw, or the mechanics of a throw to second, often off-balance and forced in pace. It’s a wonder we don’t see more injuries with catcher throwing arms, though one MLB AT told me “they’re hurt so much in other ways, it holds down their volume.” That gets a yikes. Cleveland will be without their defensive stud, Roberto Perez, for at least 10 days after a shoulder strain.

Cleveland is one of the best teams around at rehabs, but this one doesn’t look like it will be a long, extended slog. This is more about minimizing the time missed and getting the shoulder to a point where it won’t just break down again on the next throw or the hundredth. The team has enough depth to get by without Perez, but it’s definitely a drop off defensively, in framing, and in consistency for a relatively young but very talented rotation.

Juan Soto OF WAS (infection)

Juan Soto’s finally got his negative test and now it’s his swing that’s the question. It has been a while since Soto has been able to do baseball activities, so him not jumping in on his first day available is no surprise. The Nets would love to have him back out there, but there’s no rush to do so until they feel his swing is back in tune. The Nats don’t have their weekend series against the Marlins, so look for Soto back sometime early next week. There’s no reason to think he’ll have any physical limitations at the point he jumps back in.

There is still some question of whether Soto was the victim of a false positive. Watch for MLB to quickly push this aside. False positives (and false negatives) are something they really don’t want to discuss, especially considering they’re using some of the same labs that do their drug testing. MLB is lucky this was a quiet player without a big media profile, because false positives are not something you’d want Rob Manfred forced to discuss right now.

Quick Cuts:

Thoughts that Clayton Kershaw could be back quickly were dashed by news he’ll do an “extended pen with up and downs” on Thursday. Where that leaves his re-entry is unclear, but next week seems safe … The Astros don’t have Chris Devenski available, but he’s not on the IL yet either. His “arm soreness” is elbow related, but the team and Devenski want to push through if possible. They’ll play a man down for a couple more days and hope a decision won’t be forced … Jake Marisnick injured his hamstring during Summer Camp and it never cleared up, apparently. He hits the IL with the strain. His speed and quick reaction is key to his defensive value … Nick Margevicius took a tough fall and appeared to hurt his hip on a defensive play. We’ll see if the versatile reliever has to hit the bench for a while.