UTK 7/26/20

Outbreak Blues, Verlander, Strasburg, Kershaw, and more

I don’t normally send these out on Sunday evening before all the games are done, but there’s enough significant injuries that I wanted to get you the info as quickly as possible. - W2

The worry has been that one team would get hit with a COVID outbreak, enough to take down the integrity of the team. No one ever said a number it would take to really cause this, but in talking with people around baseball, there were two major worries. The first is that it took out a fair amount of starting pitchers, forcing an extended run with a lower quality staff. The second is that it took out three or four starting players at the same time, making the roster look and function at a much lower level.

The Marlins are in a bit of that right now, losing a handful of players, plus one starting pitcher. The upside for the league is that the Marlins are one of the worst and least known teams in the league. (Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna, Fernandez … what might have been.) The bulk of fans won’t notice a difference between Jorge Alfaro and Chad Wallach, Garrett Cooper and Jesus Aguilar, or Jose Urena instead of Sixto Sanchez. Harsh, but true.

This should be a wakeup call for other teams and for the league. This kind of outbreak can happen. We don’t yet know how this happened, but we also don’t know if the league and team know how this happened, which is much more important. We do know games will go on, but unless MLB adjusts quickly, they’re in trouble here. They set up a testing program that seems good on the surface, but the turnaround time is a nightmare given the outbreak around the game. Without solid contact tracing, we don’t know if this is a fluke or whether this simply isn’t a sustainable model.

For now, on to the injuries:

Justin Verlander SP HOU

Justin Verlander’s 2020 is done before it started. The question now is whether 2021 is done, which would raise questions about how long the 37-year-old wants to hang around. There’s no details yet besides “elbow injury” and “season ending” has a different definition this year than most. The easy assumption is that his UCL is injured and that he’ll need Tommy John. If so, he’s done for this season and most of next. On a standard timeline, he’d be out for all of ‘21 (but you know what I think of that standard timeline.) Verlander’s deal is also up after ‘21, but that shouldn’t be an impediment to a deal if he wants to continue.

However, early word is that this isn’t the UCL, but instead is the flexor tendon. Yes, that tendon goes together with elbow injuries like peanut butter and jelly, and yes, a significant strain could take him out for the season as stated. The Astros would have a hard time taking Verlander down for six weeks then getting him back up, especially with the schedule and the playoff schedule. (It’s very tight in the first two rounds.) A flexor strain wouldn’t be good, but it wouldn’t cost the ‘21 season either, if it heals up well.

Does this have anything to do with Verlander’s lat strain in spring training? I have to say doubtful. His mechanics are under constant watch from some of the top people in sport. If there’s any ‘connection’ its that Verlander has had to work harder over the last two seasons to maintain his delivery, which is new. That could be age, or workload, or a number of things. It’s monitored, but these injuries show that maybe they’re not getting the early warning you’d want in that situation.

If I’m a contending team right now, I might give James Click a call about George Springer. The free agent-to-be could bring quite the haul and could also be a “boomerang player,” re-signing with the Astros. Josh Reddick and Michael Brantley are lesser pieces with expiring contracts and the Astros couldn’t sell them all.

Stephen Strasburg SP WAS (nerve impingement, arm)

If you flipped through Stephen Strasburg’s medical file, you’d find a lot of things. Most of them are surprisingly small and he tends to come back from all injuries at or near 100 percent. I think his early promise that fell to Tommy John surgery led to this concept that he’s fragile. Yes, he gets injured, but there’s no drop-off aside from the pure availability, which isn’t that different from a lot of pitchers. Yes, the top-tier guys tend to never be injured, but this has been the case for the last fifty years and the top tier has gotten very thin.

The latest issue for Strasburg appears to be in that same category. He’s missing a start due to a nerve impingement. He told the media that he’s been pitching through it a while in hopes it would just go away, but it hasn’t. (Could that reluctance be because of the heat he takes about fragility? Yes.) Assuming this is just a transient impingement, Strasburg should be fine and won’t need the DL, but there’s a worry this is more. A nerve transposition wouldn’t be awful and isn’t even unusual with Tommy John survivors, but it would cost him this shortened season.

The next step is for Strasburg to throw a bullpen and see if there’s a change. Team sources are “concerned, not worried,” though one source told me that he’s worried that Scott Boras will push for Strasburg to not push too much here. Given Strasburg’s contract situation, another independent team source disagreed. “I’m sure [Scott] is advising, but Stras is our problem long term.”

Clayton Kershaw SP LAD (strained back)

While Strasburg gets hit for fragility, Clayton Kershaw often gets points for pitching through a chronically bad back. I’m not sure what the difference is for these two, aside from Kershaw having one known problem. Kershaw was able to play catch after a “clean” MRI came back, but he’s still going to miss at least one more start.

The bigger issue is behind the scenes, where the work put in to keep Kershaw ready and able is going to have to be adjusted. Without getting into too much detail here, Kershaw has been dealing with a very specific program for the last couple years which has worked to keep his back as well maintained as possible. He’s had issues, but this has minimized the problems while maximizing his availability, all without changing his delivery. It’s hard to say “change” when it works as well as it does, but that delivery is exactly what’s stressing Kershaw’s back. If the maintenance program is now either problematic or simply isn’t keeping him available, the next steps aren’t as simple.

The Dodgers medical staff will be working with Kershaw’s advisors to come up with some adjustments to his program, potentially taking some of the load off him or adding extra rest. We’ll see whether those would need to be permanent, but for most, it will be an invisible change. The visible part would be missing some starts, forcing a six-man rotation, or some other change for the rest of the pitching staff.

Kershaw only has one more season on his contract and given the issues, there’s a lot of speculation that he’ll either hang things up or go year to year if he’s feeling good and the Dodgers can capitalize on more title opportunities. Kershaw’s not going to pitch until he’s 40, but one source told me the bigger key will be 200 wins. He thought that number is a motivator for Kershaw - “he knows 200 locks him in for the Hall.” I can’t disagree at all.

Corey Kluber SP TEX (sore shoulder)

Corey Kluber looked normal, even good, in his first inning as a Ranger, or as good as those ugly baby blue uniforms can allow. But that was it. He left after that scoreless inning due to what the Rangers called “tightness in the back of the pitching shoulder.” There was a lot of concern over how “injury prone” Kluber has been, but that’s … what do the kids call it? Fake news.

Kluber missed a lot of last season with two injuries - a broken arm from a comebacker and an oblique strain as he tried to ramp back up. It’s hard to say either is something that would affect him going forward and the Rangers seemed to be the only team that got that when Kluber was made available.

The shoulder tightness is worrisome and Kluber will get an MRI on Monday to check it. I’ll be watching this one closely, but I’m not going full doom and gloom just yet. Kluber isn’t overworked, wasn’t forced to ramp up quickly, and if you’re still saying he’s risky because of last year, re-read the above.

Anthony Rendon 3B LAA (strained oblique)

Anthony Rendon still hasn’t made his debut as an Angel and he’s still not on the IL. The Angels - really Joe Maddon - don’t have any issue playing a man down under the expanded rosters and think Rendon will be back before the 10-day IL would clock out. That tells you they think he’s real, real close. He got in some work on Saturday and Sunday, but the real work is being done in the cage and we don’t get to see that in public. Even my best Angels sources say it was very limited when Rendon was working on things. (Smart.)

The oblique strain is an injury we’ve seen a lot of during this re-start, but it’s not a new injury. Baseball medical staffs haven’t gotten significantly better at dealing with these, especially severe ones. They’ve reduced them overall, reduced the time lost, and reduced the number of recurrences. There’s a lot more we could do - see Sarah Howard’s info from earlier this week on how - but it’s a manageable injury. In 2020, we should really see these reduce over the next week or so, since we have to expect anyone that’s playing now won’t have the kind of ramp up injuries we’ve seen so far.

Travis d’Arnaud/Tyler Flowers C ATL (infection/illness)

The Braves also saw an issue with illness, though as yet we don’t have word that Travis d’Arnaud or Tyler Flowers actually have a positive test. They were pushed to the COVID DL because of the symptoms, which were described as mild and one source told me were “coughs and sniffles.” The Braves should be commended for being proactive here, but it does put them to their third and fourth catchers.

The COVID DL doesn’t have a timeframe on it, so d’Arnaud and Flowers could theoretically be back without the normal two negative tests, if I understand things correctly. We don’t know yet if they’ve had interim tests or the results of those, if they occurred. It’s nice to see Alex Jackson* out there, especially as a catcher, but the Braves would rather have their top two back quickly.

*Full disclosure: I scouted Jackson back before he was drafted in the first round. I loved his bat and thought he should have stayed at catcher.

Mike Moustakas 2B CIN (infection)

It’s not just the Marlins who are testing positive. The Reds took a hit after Mike Moustakas had a nice week in his first Reds action, proving he can handle second base, then testing positive. Team sources tell me they were “stunned” at the positive. He evidently showed some mild symptoms, then was tested. The rest of the team will watch and wait, though I’m told they pushed for rapid tests for the rest of the team. Isolating them is tough, so we’ll have to see if there’s any other cases.

As before, there’s tape of Moustakas around his teammates during the last couple games, so this could be another team issue. For now, Josh Van Meter steps in at second from his utility role, but there’s questions about how he’ll fare defensively at second, just as Moustakas had to answer. Moustakas will need two negative tests and no symptoms before he can return, so there’s no timeline here.

QUICK CUTS:

No injury to Shohei Ohtani. He was pulled in the first inning because he hit 30 pitches in an inning. That’s a hard stop for any pitcher, according to an Angels source … Rocco Baldelli says that Byron Buxton should rejoin the team during the upcoming homestead. The mid foot sprain is definitely something that can recur and linger, so I’m curious if this is just a very minor sprain, or whether the shortened schedule is making the Twins more aggressive … The Cards bullpen should get Giovanny Gallegos back this week after a good pen session on Saturday. He won’t immediately close, but he’ll be in the mix quickly … Mark Melancon had a tight back, not COVID as was initially speculated. Word is it was minor, but it shows how tough even something simple like this is to cover with no locker room access. The beat writers have it tough this year, unless they’re well sourced … Early word is that Aledmys Diaz has a grade II groin strain. That could cost him a couple weeks at minimum and leaves the Astros thin at, of all things, DH with Yordano Alvarez still out … Isaiah Kiner-Falefa missed Sunday’s game with a tight hamstring. He did have a leg single on Saturday and he’s not a speed player. The Rangers have a pretty flexible roster, but part of that is IKF’s multi-position ability. He’s day to day … Someone emailed to ask what a “burst injury” was. I wish I had a glossary - is there an app for that? - but the answer is that when a players starts going full speed again and can’t simulate it in practice, that’s when burst injuries happen. A guy tries to go hard and something pops. It’s usually muscular and we’re seeing it in obliques and hamstrings.